Sun. May 26th, 2024
alert-–-the-astonishing-graph-showing-the-staggering-number-of-migrants-who’ve-arrived-in-australia-as-we’ve-battled-a-cost-of-living-crisis-in-the-last-yearAlert – The astonishing graph showing the staggering number of migrants who’ve arrived in Australia as we’ve battled a cost of living crisis in the last year

A record 500,000 migrants are expected to have arrived in Australia in just a year during a cost of living and housing crisis.

In the year to August, a near-record 413,530 overseas migrants moved to Australia, with the level doubling compared with the same time in mid-2022.

That figure included permanent and long-term arrivals, covering skilled migrants and the big influx of international students, minus departures.

But Abdul Rizvi, a former deputy secretary of the Department of Immigration, is now forecasting a record 500,000 migrants to have arrived in Australia in the year to September.

That figure would far surpass the 400,000 Treasury forecast for 2022-23 in the May Budget, before dropping back to 315,000 in 2023-24.

Mr Rizvi said recent Australian Bureau of Statistics arrivals and departures data suggested Treasury had greatly underestimated immigration levels since Australia reopened in late 2021. 

A record 500,000 migrants are expected to have arrived in Australia in just a year during a cost of living and housing crisis

‘I would be very surprised if the government can get down to 315,000,’ he told The Australian Financial Review.

‘The September quarter is already very strong. It’s starting to turn, but turn very slowly.’

READ MORE: Property prices surge in Australia signalling good news for wealthy homeowners and disaster for renters

House prices are set to run hot for the rest of year – but struggling renters will battle to keep a roof over their head.

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Treasury is already forecasting Australia absorbing 1.5million new migrants in the five years to June 2027 but the pressure on housing, roads, hospital and schools could be even greater as immigration surpasses even recent predictions. 

Australia’s population growth pace of 2.2 per cent is among the highest in the developed world after Canada and Singapore, and is at growth levels last seen in 2008 during the Global Financial Crisis.

This has also coincided with higher inflation and rising house prices, despite the Reserve Bank raising interest rates 12 times since May 2022.

The Commonwealth Bank, ANZ and NAB are now expecting another rate rise in November, after inflation in the year to September only moderated slightly to 5.4 per cent, down from 6 per cent in June. 

This would be the 13th rate rise in 18 months, with monetary policy already tightening at the most severe pace since 1989. 

National Australia Bank chief economist Alan Oster said strong population growth was likely to push up house prices in 2023 and 2024, even though banks can’t lend as much.

‘While there appears to have been little ongoing response to the sharp reduction in borrowing power around 30 per cent  – demand remains strong, with annual population growth rising to its highest rate since late-2008,’ he said.

Sydney’s median house price of $1.381million is well beyond the reach of someone on a low, six-figure salary but NAB is expecting an 11.6 per cent increase in 2023, followed by a 5 per cent increase in 2024.

That would see the mid-point house price surge to $1.431million by the end of next year, based on CoreLogic data.

Brisbane now has a median house price of $848,680, but NAB is expecting values to rise by 12.1 per cent in 2023 and by another 6.5 per cent in 2024, taking prices up to $938,614.

Perth is Australia’s most affordable state capital city market with a median house price of $646,777.

But NAB is expecting a 11.9 per cent increase in 2023 followed by a small 1.2 per cent rise next year, which would take the mid-point price to $664,419, having come off a lower $586,721 base at the end of 2022.

In the year to August, a near-record 413,530 overseas migrants moved to Australia, with the level doubling compared with the same time in mid-2022 (pictured is a Sydney train station)

Abdul Rizvi, a former deputy secretary of the Department of Immigration, is now forecasting a record 500,000 migrants to have arrived in Australia in the year to September, questioning Treasury’s forecast of 315,000 migrants in 2023-24

Renters are also losing out with the national vacancy rate at just 1.1 per cent, SQM Research data showed. 

Capital city rents soared by 16.2 per cent in the year to October to $684 a week.

The Business Council of Australia, which represents big corporations, has been campaigning for an immigration surge, arguing the 84,900 net immigration drop in 2020-21 during the pandemic needed to be made up for. 

Immigration levels have more than doubled since the border was reopened in December 2021, which saw 170,900 net arrivals in 2021-22.

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