Former President Donald Trump has a five point lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in Texas with early voting in the state kicking off in less than a week. But the Senate race in the Lone Star State could be razor-thin.
The ex-president is polling at 51 percent to Harris’ 46 percent among likely Texas voters, according to the poll conducted by University of Houston’s Hobby School of Public Affairs.
Another one percent of likely voters are supporting other candidates while two percent are still undecided.
But when it comes to the Texas Senate race, Republican Senator Ted Cruz is facing a formidable challenger in Democratic Congressman Colin Allred as Republicans view holding the seat as crucial as they look to flip the Senate in November.
The new poll shows Cruz with 50 percent of the vote while Allred is polling at 46 percent, just a four point gap. And three percent of voters in the race are still undecided.
Cruz leads Allred by double-digits among men 56 percent to 41 percent. But Allred holds a seven point lead among women, 51 percent to 44 percent.
The Republican Senator leads among white likely voters by 22 points, 60 percent to Allred’s 38 percent. But Allred leads Cruz by 62 points among black likely voters.
Cruz and Allred are also in a tight race among Latino voters with 48 percent supporting Allred while 45 percent support Cruz.
It comes as Democrats have not won a U.S. Senate race in Texas since 1988. But Cruz won his reelection bid in 2018 by just 2.6 points.
The Real Clear Politics average of polls shows Cruz with a four point lead, putting Allred in striking distance with 20 days to go.
Meanwhile, Trump’s lead in the state at the top of the ticket is similar to other polls that have come out of Texas.
The average of polls by Real Clear Politics has him with a more than five point lead as early voting there starting on October 21.
The polling shows the ex-president with a large advantage among several groups of voters in Texas including double-digit leads among likely white voters and men.
Among men, Trump leads Harris by 15 points with 56 percent to her 41 percent. But Harris does not have a similarly large advantage among women voters as she does in other key states. She only leads Trump with women 51 percent to 46 percent.
When it comes to white likely voters, Trump holds a 22 point lead with 60 percent to Harris’ 38 percent. That includes a 33 point lead among white men and a fourteen point lead among white women.
Harris however holds a massive 70 point gap among black voters with 84 percent to fourteen percent. Her lead expands to an 78 point gap among black women with a 64 percent gap among black men.
The pair are in a statistical tie when it comes to Texas Latino voters with 48 percent supporting Trump while 47 percent back Harris. Trump holds a nine point lead among Latino men while Harris leads by two points among Latino women.
Trump also leads among older generations of voters with 61 percent among Boomers and the Silent Generation. Conversely, Harris leads among Gen Z also with 61 percent.
Democrats have long been trying to make inroads in the Lone Star State with its 40 electoral votes, but the polling suggests they still have a ways to go to flip Texas blue.
The last Democratic presidential candidate to win the state was Jimmy Carter in 1976. Trump won the state in 2020 by more than five points.