Kemi Badenoch is ‘fighting for her life’ to stay in the Tory leadership race ahead of key voting by MPs this week, sources say.
Once seen as the frontrunner to succeed Rishi Sunak, Mrs Badenoch now faces the threat of not making it into the final two.
In contrast, James Cleverly has gained momentum off the back of his speech at the Conservative party conference in Birmingham.
This weekend, the four candidates and their teams have been hitting the phones in a bid to shore up support within the party. They have also announced new backers. Insiders say the race between the final three – Mrs Badenoch, Mr Cleverly and Robert Jenrick – will be ‘very tight’.
Tom Tugendhat is expected to drop out at the first round of voting on Tuesday. The bulk of his backers are expected to then vote for Mr Cleverly, which could squeeze Mrs Badenoch out of the final two in the vote put to party members on October 31.
An MP who has not backed any of the contenders said: ‘Kemi’s in trouble. When the race kicked off she looked like a dead cert for the final two. Now that has been turned on its head and she has caused problems for herself.’
Another source said: ‘She’s fighting for her life.’ Some MPs who publicly backed Mrs Badenoch’s campaign are also now believed to be ‘wobbly’ and may not vote for her in the MPs’ ballot – in which their names will remain secret.
A source said: ‘Some colleagues who backed Kemi originally are very shaken. They have been saying privately, “Do I really want to go out and have to defend Kemi’s views on maternity pay?”’ They are not expected to publicly switch but to cast their vote for another candidate instead.
However, Mrs Badenoch’s team insisted: ‘Our vote is solid.’
Last week, Mrs Badenoch suggested that maternity pay was ‘excessive’. Later, the MP said that she was talking about regulation on businesses and added: ‘Of course I believe in maternity pay!’ She also made headlines after saying ‘5 [to] 10 per cent’ of civil servants ‘should be in prison’.
Her allies say she is popular with the Tory membership because of her straight-talking style and warn that the grassroots will be unhappy if they think MPs won’t give them a chance to vote for her.
A source close to Mrs Badenoch said: ‘Kemi’s speech went down best with the independent More in Common focus group of former Tory voters and won the endorsements of David Davis and Helen Grant – further boosting her numbers. Despite the media narrative, Kemi’s vote remains strong. She has the vast majority of the Shadow Cabinet backing her.’ Over the weekend, Florida governor and senior Republican politician Ron DeSantis said she would be ‘an inspiration for conservatives not just in the United Kingdom, but all across the world’.
Mr Cleverly has won the backing of more than 100 Tory councillors. In a letter, they said: ‘It is becoming increasingly clear that as we approach the crucial 2025 local elections, where over 1,380 seats in all county council seats in England will be up for election, we need a strong leader who can…start to win back the country. James’ experience, from being party chairman, home secretary and foreign secretary, makes him the only candidate capable of hitting the ground running.’
However, critics of Mr Cleverly have attacked his record in government, accusing him of failing to stop the migrant boats and being too ‘soft’ on China.
Mr Jenrick’s camp said they were confident that he remained the frontrunner.