This is the map that shows in shades of red and blue how Hurricane Helene could have a decisive impact on voting in areas of North Carolina that will decide the 2024 election.
Her path cut a swath through red and pink areas, showing how some of the worst affected areas are counties that voted for Trump in 2020.
And others in south-eastern Georgia and north-western North Carolina are among the swingiest, showing how even a small impact on turnout could have an outsize effect.
There are implication for the Harris campaign too. If aid is slow to reach devastated areas, voters are sure to factor it in when they decide whether she should be returned to office.
Election officials are still sifting through the fallout from Helene’s towering floodwaters, which inundated homes and cut off power to thousands.
This map shows the counties worst affected by Hurricane Helene inside the bold black outline. North Carolina is shown by the yellow boundary, and the counties ringed in red are the ones in the north-west of the state that bore the brunt of the damage
But disruptions to the postal service, damage to polling places, and the loss of personal IDs could all upend voting with just 34 days until the election.
That could have a huge impact in North Carolina, in particular. It is one of the tightest battlegrounds as former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris scrap for every vote.
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An analysis of the 2020 election result conducted by DailyMail.com’s pollster J.L. Partners found that the 24 worst affected counties in the state are overwhelmingly Republican.
More than 590,000 votes were cast in that region for Trump in 2020, compared with 350,000 for Joe Biden.
That helped Trump win North Carolina by about 75,000. Big cities to the east (less affected by the storm) provided the bulk of Biden’s support.
The question now is how the damage will change those numbers.
Andy Jackson, Director of the Civitas Center for Public Integrity at the John Locke Foundation, said: ‘There’s potential for a big impact, particularly in the mountains and, to an extent, the foothills in North Carolina.’
Helene roared ashore in Florida on Thursday night, triggering days of torrential rain and flooding.
It carved through Florida’s Gulf Coast to Tennessee, flattening homes, downing power lines and more than 100 people dead in its wake.
On Monday afternoon, election officials in North Carolina began to assess its impact. They held an emergency meeting to roll out measures to help voters, including a website of tips for people affected by the storm and advice on what to do if you think your ballot was swept away in a mailbox.
Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are locked in a tight battle were every vote will count in battlegrounds such as North Carolina
A view of the damaged area at Asheville along with the western part of North-Carolina is devastated by the heavy rains and flooding after Hurricane Helene in Asheville
Election officials are still sifting through the fallout from Helene’s towering floodwaters, which inundated homes and cut off power to thousands
Exceptions can also be made for people who have lost their photo ID, a requirement to vote.
One of the worst hit places was Asheville. Some 35 people were declared dead in the county that includes the mountain city in the north-west of the state.
Jackson said that any impact on turnout could disproportionately affect Republican candidates.
‘Asheville is very Democratic leaning. Boone, which is a college town up in the northern part of North Carolina’s mountains, is Democratic leaning,’ he said.
‘But the rest of that area is pretty Republican. And when you get down into the foothills, those areas are very Republican.’
There are still three weeks to go before in person voting begins. And now the race is on for the two campaigns, and their ground troops, as well as state election officials to adapt and adjust.
Political scientist Michael Bitzer in North Carolina said: ‘I think it’s too early to say what the political dynamic is, other than the humanitarian effort is going to be paramount first.’
The DailyMail.com/J.L. Partners election model already has the state leaning towards Donald Trump.
James Johnson, co-founder of J.L. Partners, said the biggest political risk for Harris may be any sign that federal authorities drop the ball in delivering help and look out of touch.
‘The biggest impact I see of the hurricane is not necessarily on denting turnout,’ he said. ‘If this was a week before, perhaps that would be true, but we will still have more than a month to run.’
Harris will need to combat any sense of chaos and uncertainty in the run-up to the election, he added.
‘That has an impact everywhere, but it may also have an outsize impact in North Carolina,’ he said.
‘The thing that jumps out at me about the North Carolina portion of the map isn’t how red it is, but how it is made up of counties with close party margins.
‘It is in those swing counties that voters might be even more likely to take their impression of the government’s performance – and their attention on their storm-affected towns – into account when casting their vote.’
Trump traveled to Valdosta, Georgia, Monday on a trip that bore all the hallmarks of a presidential trip, including a briefing from emergency officials
Trump looked to capitalize on that sentiment with a visit to Georgia at the start of the week, when Biden and Harris were both in Washington.
He was briefed by officials on the emergency response, and carried a folder bearing the presidential seal, during a visit that resembled that of a president in office.
Matt Mercer, North Carolina Republican Party, said it was not the first time that weather had played a role in North Carolina elections.
‘And by that I mean you go back to Hurricane Matthew in 2016, and we were finding ways for the party to help recovery efforts, but then also ensuring that voters have every available opportunity to cast their ballots,’ he said.
His message was echoed by the executive director of the state’s election board.
‘We’ve battled through hurricanes and tropical storms and still held safe and secure elections, and we will do everything in our power to do so again,’ Karen Brinson Bell told reporters Tuesday.
‘Mountain people are strong, and the election people who serve them are resilient and tough, too.’