Cyclone Alfred has stalled off the southern Queensland coast with experts agreeing the delay will increase the severity of the storm when it finally makes landfall.
The cyclone has slowed to just 3km/h and is now expected to make landfall on Saturday morning after earlier forecasts of Friday morning, then Friday night.
The category two system is expected to cross the coast between Noosa and Coolangatta, though communities from Double Island point in Queensland down to the NSW Northern Rivers could be affected.
‘Alfred has stalled in warm seas off Queensland and its slow pace will bring even more rain to affected communities because it will linger for longer,’ Andrew Dowdy, principal research scientist in extreme weather at The University of Melbourne, said.
‘Its slowing means the huge waves triggered by the cyclone will last longer too, likely making coastal erosion and flooding worse.
‘Alfred is unusual as it is the first cyclone in half a century to be this far south and make expected landfall.
‘Weather patterns mean most cyclones heading south are diverted to the east but Alfred’s abrupt westward shift is due to a large region of high pressure to its south, which has pushed it directly towards heavily populated areas.
‘These steering winds are not very strong, which is why Alfred is moving slowly.’
Thomas Hinterdorfer from Higgins Storm Chasing said Cyclone Alfred moving slowly over the ocean will allow it to gather more ‘fuel’ before it crosses the coast.
He warned the storm could still strengthen to a category three system.
‘It’s going to have more time in the lower vertical shear. It’s going to have more time with the warm ocean waters, and all that fuel is gonna help it intensify,’ he told The Courier Mail.
‘That heavy rain, those damaging, destructive winds, they’re going to last potentially for 12 to 14 hours for some areas.’
The Bureau of Meteorology has issued warnings for millions of people in Queensland and northern NSW to either hunker down or evacuate.
Flights have been cancelled, trains and buses have been affected, schools are suspended and shops including supermarkets are shutting their doors.
Meteorologists warned the cyclone will bring destructive winds in excess of 120km/h as well as dangerous flash flooding, and waves up to eight metres on the coast.
Brisbane Lord Mayor Adrian Schrinner says modelling shows 20,000 properties in Brisbane could be affected by storm surges and flooding.
Areas most at risk include Nudgee Beach, Brighton, Windsor, Ashgrove, Morningside and Rocklea.
Sky News Weather meteorologist Marina Neuman said there was the potential for a deluge of about 500mm to 700mm of total rainfall.
The federal government has announced funding for 12 local government areas, with the cyclone having the potential to cause billions of dollars in damage.
Disaster funding has been made available to assist with preparation and recovery efforts including sandbagging and evacuations, along with emergency repairs to roads and public infrastructure.
Local government areas of Brisbane, Fraser Coast, Gold Coast, Gympie, Ipswich, Logan, Moreton Bay, Noosa, Redland, Scenic Rim, Somerset, and Sunshine Coast can access the funding.
Queensland Minister for Disaster Recovery Ann Leahy said community safety was the top priority.
‘We’re prepared for Cyclone Alfred and we’re asking Queenslanders to do the same,’ Minister Leahy said.
‘We have resources on the ground, ready to go, as soon as Cyclone Alfred passes.
‘We are working in partnership with councils and this funding will greatly assist them with their preparations for their communities.’
Torrential downpours and large sea swells are already hitting the Gold Coast and more than 28,00 homes and businesses in southeast Queensland lost electricity on Friday morning around the Gold Coast area, Redland City and Scenic Rim.
Power company Energex said the outages were caused by debris over powerlines and substations and warned customers to brace four outages lasting a week or more.
‘While we hope this doesn’t happen, we must be ready for serious damage to the power network and/or homes,’ the company said.
There were some 6,300 requests for assistance to the SES in NSW’s Northern Rivers and Mid North Coast regions as of Friday morning.