An Aussie professor has issued a chilling warning about the bushfire ravaging Los Angeles, saying it could happen in the suburbs of Sydney or Melbourne.
It comes as the death toll of the California inferno has now reached five, with 100,000 people ordered to evacuate and a further 100,000 put on stand-by, as firefighters battle hellish conditions on the front lines of at least five different fires.
The fires have crossed into suburbia, including the affluent Pacific Pallisades neighbourhood, where celebrity homes were reduced to ash and rubble.
Professor of pyrogeography and fire science at University of Tasmania, David Bowman, said on Thursday that n suburbs were not immune to bushfires.
‘Could something similar happen in major n cities – and how prepared are we? The answers are: yes, and not very,’ he wrote in a piece for The Conversation.
n cities lack the strong Santa Ana winds that are fanning the flames in LA, Prof Bowman said, but they do have downslope winds that come over mountain ranges.
‘There is the possibility for fires to burn into n suburbs. It happened in Canberra in 2003.
‘And it could happen again in a major city such as Sydney or Melbourne. We have all the ingredients.
‘If you have the wrong wind and the wrong fire and the wrong time, a fire can be driven very quickly into an urban area.’
Prof Bowman said older houses with older gardens were particularly at risk.
‘If you have more modern housing stock (which is usually better at defending against ember attack), and the houses are more spaced apart and the gardens are clearer, then you might be OK.’
He said suburban areas needed better boundaries between houses, clearer gardens and firebreaks, as well as firesafe messaging targeted at the suburbs, not just rural residents.
‘Many regional and rural areas in have places of last resort – safe places for the community to go when all other bushfire plans have failed,’ he said.
‘The LA tragedy shows we also need these places in cities.
‘People should also be educated about what to expect at the evacuation point when you arrive. Where possible, they should take their own food, water and medicines and include pets in their plan.
‘And the planning discussion should include residents in fire-prone areas installing their own specially designed fire-shelters at home, if they can afford it.’
When fire gets into suburbs, the damage can be variable, he said. Some houses might burn down and others may survive.
But the worst case scenario is what is called ‘house-to-house ignition’, where the houses become the fuel.
‘The other frightening dimension is what happens if water supplies run out, which is reportedly happening in some parts of Los Angeles,’ he explained.
‘Global warming is making bushfires in more frequent and severe. As bushfires become more prevalent, home insurance costs are increasing. That will affect the cost of living and the broader economy.
‘The LA fires show when it comes to climate change, there’s nowhere to hide. Around the world, authorities and communities must overhaul their assumptions about bushfire risk and preparedness. That includes people living in cities.
‘Many regional and rural areas in have bushfire places of last resort – safe places for the community to go when all other bushfire plans have failed.
‘The LA tragedy shows we also need these places in cities. People also need a plan on how to get there (by walking or going on bike, where possible), so traffic jams don’t ensue as everyone tries to escape.’
A ferocious new wildfire has erupted in LA’s Hollywood Hills at 6pm Wednesday local time.
The blaze has prompted an evacuation of the iconic Hollywood Boulevard, amid warnings that a further 100,000 residents should be prepared to evacuate their homes.
Thousands of homes and structures have already been lost across California, but with fires still burning it’s impossible for officials to get a grip on the true scale of loss.
A trio of the smaller fires which were burning across the state are now contained, but several are still burning in addition to the Hollywood Hills blaze which has just ignited.
To make matters worse, the National Weather Service says gusty winds and very dry conditions would continue to fuel fires in the Los Angeles area in the days ahead.
is no stranger to bushfires, which form a natural part of the country’s environment. But the danger has heightened in recent years.
The Black Summer, which ranged across the 2019-2020 summer, was among the worst fire seasons on record.
Fires in multiple states killed at least 34 people, razed 3,000 buildings, and killed or displaced about 3 billion animals.
A composite made from NASA satellite images showed where bushfires ravaged the nation between December 5 2019 and January 5 2020.
‘Scale is a little exaggerated due to the render’s glow, but generally true to the info from the NASA website,’ the image’s creator, Anthony Hearsey said.