They remain one of the most iconic and most-loved sights of London life, with their roots in the horse-drawn hackney carriages of Tudor times.
But a new report warns the capital’s black cabs could be extinct by 2045 if no action is taken to solve the industry’s issues as the number of drivers continues to drop.
The number of licensed taxi drivers in London last month fell to a new low of just 16,816 – down nearly 10,000 in a decade from the 25,232 total in 2014/15.
Conversely, the number of private hire driver licences has hit 107,998 amid the rise of hailing apps in recent years – up by nearly 30,000 since 2014/15 when it was 78,690.
With the black cab trade now losing about 1,000 drivers each year amid an ageing workforce and intense competition from the likes of Uber, the study by the Centre for London think tank warned there would be no taxi cabs on the city’s roads by 2045.
It comes after Transport for London (TfL), which licenses the taxi trade in the capital, last month granted permission for black cab fares to rise by an average of nearly 7.5 per cent from April. TfL is not able to set the fares charged by private hire apps.
Experts point to a 39 per cent jump in the cost of buying a new cab since 2017 when the new electric black cab was brought in – yet all financial aid schemes are set to be scrapped by 2026, while the private hire vehicle industry continues to grow.
The report pointed to the TfL scrappage scheme, offering cabbies £10,000 to scrap old vehicles which were not low-emission zone complaint, which ended in 2022.
Meanwhile, the Department for Transport’s plug-in taxi grant has fallen from £7,500 to £4,000 and will be ended entirely from 2026.
Researchers therefore concluded that this means the grant support available for purchasing a new taxi will have gone from £17,500 to £0 between 2017 and 2026.
Concerns were also raised that the famous Knowledge of London course – which often takes three years to complete – is increasingly seen as a major barrier to entry for prospective drivers, including those currently working for private hire firms.
An industry survey found that while 52 per cent of private hire drivers had considered becoming a black cab driver, 44 per cent said it took ‘too long’ to become one – while 29 per cent would not consider it because the Knowledge exam is ‘too hard.’
Supporters of black cabs point to their cultural status and that they are wheelchair accessible and can be hailed from the street or found in taxi ranks.
The Knowledge is taken by all London cab drivers and is widely seen as the world’s toughest taxi test.
The exam dates back more than 150 years to 1865, having been introduced after the Great Exhibition of 1851 at the Crystal Palace in Hyde Park, which saw many visitors complain about how cab drivers did not know the route.
Drivers must memorise 25,000 streets and 100,000 landmarks within a six-mile radius of Charing Cross.
They have to learn 320 routes and face up to a dozen interviews during a process taking up to four years.
The test featured in a 1979 TV comedy drama called The Knowledge, written by the late Jack Rosenthal. The cast included his wife Maureen Lipman, Nigel Hawthorne and Mick Ford.
There was also a 1996 BBC Modern Times documentary called Streetwise which followed drivers preparing for the exam. It is still available on iPlayer.
And Channel 4 aired a documentary in April 2017 called The Knowledge: The World’s Toughest Taxi Test.
They also note that the vehicles are driven by a cabbie who has passed the Knowledge of London exam and has had a Disclosure and Barring Service (DBS) check and regular medical checks.
Londoners also consider the black cab to be a long-lasting fixture, with 78 per cent in a survey believing they will still exist in 100 years.
But the Centre for London has recommended a series of policy changes to reverse the decline in driver numbers
The first is to reform the Knowledge test to encourage more drivers to apply and qualify to reduce the 66 per cent drop-out rate of drivers who start but do not complete the process.
Experts also want the introduction of a new interest-free loan scheme for newly qualified drivers purchasing new taxis.
They said this would replicate the success of Scotland’s ‘Switched On Taxis’ loan programme, and help drivers secure a new or used electric black cab.
Centre for London chief executive Antonia Jennings said: ‘Black Cabs are a fundamental part of London’s cityscape. We must not let them become part of the capital’s history.
‘Alongside their cultural status, cabs offer what Londoners need today – accessible, convenient and safe transport. We should not be removing these options off the street.
‘It’s simply unthinkable for London taxis to become extinct by 2045. Government must step up to support the Black Cab industry and turn this declining trajectory around, before it’s too late.’
The research was supported by Freenow, a German-based mobility app through which people can book a taxi or private hire vehicle along with e-scooters or e-bikes.
Sam Pooke, head of public policy at the company, said: ‘Taxis are an integral part of London’s transport network, providing high quality safe, accessible journeys for millions of people every year.
‘However, these findings show that without intervention from the Mayor of London, TfL, and central government, the iconic London black cab could soon become a thing of the past.
‘Despite costs rising substantially for taxi drivers in recent years, financial support from TfL and central government has become almost non-existent.
‘Freenow strongly endorses the recommendations in this report, and we are calling on the Mayor to instruct TfL to set out a clear strategy for recruiting and retaining taxi drivers as part of its upcoming Action Plan.’
1) What bridge is the quickest way to get from Pedlar’s Park to Bessborough Gardens?
2) On what road is the main entrance to the Harold Pinter Theatre?
3) What is the main road between West Kensington and Barons Court stations?
4) What is the name of the park directly to the south of Mornington Crescent station?
5) What is the average maximum time it takes to get from Lord’s Cricket Ground to Waterloo station during the evening rush hour?
6) Which main London rail terminal would you need to take someone wanting to get a train to Upminster?
7) Where in London is the Sun In The Sands roundabout?
8) On what road is the Imperial War Museum?
9) Where is Hammersmith Hospital?
10) On which road in Soho is the Dog And Duck pub?
ANSWERS: 1) Vauxhall Bridge, 2) Panton Street, 3) A4, 4) Harrington Square Gardens, 5) 55 minutes, 6) Fenchurch Street, 7) Blackheath, 8) Lambeth Road, 9) White City, 10) Bateman Street
Steve McNamara, general secretary of the Licensed Taxi Drivers’ Association, said: ‘This important report highlights many of the challenges facing London’s licensed taxi drivers, most notably lack of road access, rising vehicle and operating costs, and the withdrawal of local and national government financial support to assist drivers in making the transition to zero emission capable vehicles.
‘It proposes a range of concrete steps that the Mayor of London and TfL can implement now to prevent the worst-case scenarios outlined from being realised. I hope the recommendations are reflected in the Mayor’s forthcoming Taxi Action Plan.
‘We’ve been here since the time of Oliver Cromwell, and we aren’t going anywhere soon but London’s iconic taxi trade is at a crossroads – with the right support we can cement its crucial role as fully accessible part of London’s transport mix and the world’s best and greenest taxi service.
‘However, without such support our trade faces very real existential threats and these can no longer be ignored by policymakers.’
A Department for Transport spokesperson said: ‘The Plug in Taxi Grant has provided over £70million to support taxi drivers make the transition to cleaner vehicles, and even when the grant comes to an end electric vehicles can be up to 8 times cheaper per mile than filling up with petrol.
‘We’re providing over £2.3billion to help industry and consumers make a supported switch to electric vehicles, tapping into a multi-billion pound industry to create jobs, make the UK a clean energy superpower and deliver our Plan for Change.’
And a TfL spokeswoman said: ‘We recognise that black cabs play a vital role in the capital’s transport system.
‘We will soon be publishing a new Taxi and Private Hire Action Plan to ensure they continue to play a role in ensuring Londoners can move around the capital safely, sustainably and efficiently.
‘TfL has already provided more than £50million in funding to the taxi trade across a range of initiatives to encourage taxi vehicle owners to retire older, more polluting vehicles and encourage the uptake of clearer, greener vehicles.
‘As a result, we are very proud that more than 60 per cent of the taxi fleet is now zero-emission capable and the fleet will be part of our transport system for the foreseeable future.’
The £50million funding includes a £42million delicensing fund that offered payments of up to £10,000 to retire older, more polluting taxis and contributions to the Government’s Plug-in Taxi Grant.
TfL is also understood to be raising the importance of extending the Plug-in Taxi Grant with the Government, as well as making the case for VAT relief on taxis and for on-street charging.
The Knowledge exam, which was introduced in 1865, requires drivers to memorise 25,000 streets and 100,000 landmarks within a six-mile radius of Charing Cross.
Successful applicants must learn 320 routes and get through seven stages, with up to a dozen interviews having to be passed during a process taking up to four years.
But fears had been raised in recent years that the test could become extinct, with applications falling 94 per cent in a decade from 3,000 in 2012 to just 174 in 2021.
Numbers did however begin rising again, with the 2023 total hitting 579 – triple the figure from two years prior, and well above the last pre-pandemic number of 356 in 2019.
However there will be a time lag for this to have an impact on the number of newly-licensed taxi drivers given that TfL says it generally takes three to four years to complete the test.
The Knowledge was brought in after the landmark Great Exhibition of 1851 at the Crystal Palace in Hyde Park, which attracted hundreds of thousands of visitors – many of whom then complained about their awful journeys because cab drivers did not know the route.
The test was immortalised in a 1979 TV comedy drama called The Knowledge, written by the late Jack Rosenthal with a cast including his wife Maureen Lipman, Nigel Hawthorne and Mick Ford.
It also featured in a 1996 BBC Modern Times documentary called Streetwise, which followed drivers preparing for the exam.