On Tuesday, Donald Trump and Nikki Haley will go to battle on the biggest election day of the Republican primary.
Thousands of voters from 15 states will head to the polls for what has been known since the 1970s as ‘Super Tuesday’.
For Republicans 874 delegates will be decided, about one third of the total, and a large chunk of the 1,215 a candidate needs to clinch the party’s presidential nomination.
Normally the day is full of twists and turns, but this year the results could be decided early on as Trump continues full steam to a likely general election rematch with Biden in November.
It is Haley’s chance to make her last stand after her embarrassing loss in her home state of South Carolina. Is she doesn’t earn enough delegates to remain a viable candidate, it could force the end of her defiant White House run.
She has promised to keep fighting, but heavy losses on one of the most consequential days of the race could make her path to the nomination even narrower than it already is.
Donald Trump has already handily defeated her in all six of the primaries so far by double digits, and could complete a clean sweeps of all the states on March 5.
Polls have him far ahead in most of the states set to vote, meaning many of the results could be lopsided.
The states of Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina, Michigan, Idaho, Missouri and North Dakota, along with Washington DC and and the U.S. Virgin Islands, will have all voted before Super Tuesday.
This year, 15 states will vote Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont and Virginia. One territory, American Samoa, will also cast their ballots.
DailyMail.com breaks down everything you need to know about the drama-filled day, what to watch and where the polls stand.
Thousands of voters from 15 states will head to the polls for what has been known since the 1970s as ‘Super Tuesday’
ALABAMA
Delegate Count: 50 – winner take most
Voting hours on Election Day: 7am to 7pm
Early in-person voting?: No
Open/Closed primary election?: Open. Voters can choose which party’s ballot they wish to vote in. This decision does not register the voter with a political party.
Polling: A Morning Consult poll taken January 23-February 4 of likely voters in Alabama puts Trump a commanding 75 percent ahead of Haley (87 percent to 12 percent).
A deep red state in Trump country, Alabama is likely to have all their delegates go to the former president.
But Alabama has become the center of controversy regarding women’s healthcare rights after a state Supreme Court ruling deemed fertilized eggs for IVF treatments are considered human life.
This resulted in IVF facilities in the state pausing operations amid discussion over how to handle the fertilized eggs with their new classification.
Alabama was one of more than a dozen states with trigger laws, meaning when the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in June 2022, abortion became essentially illegal. The state now has one of the most strict abortion laws in the country.
In both the 2016 and 200 general elections, 62 percent of Alabama voted for Trump.
If the primary does not yield results with a candidate earning at least 51 percent of the vote, Alabama holds a runoff a few weeks later with the top two candidates on the ballot.
Since Trump and Haley are the only viable remaining candidates, it’s likely Trump will walk away with considerably more than the required threshold to avoid a runoff.
Alabama held the fourth Republican presidential primary debate this cycle in Tuscaloosa on December 6 at the University of Alabama.
Haley was on the debate stage along with then-remaining 2024 rivals Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie.
Trump refused to participate in any primary debates.
Donald Trump was always the likely candidate for Republicans in 2024 – but after sweeping the first four primary states in January and February, his nomination became all but locked-up. Pictured: Trump speaks at a campaign rally in Waterford Township, Michigan on Feb. 17, 2024
The University of Alabama hosted the fourth Republican presidential primary debate on Dec. 6, 2023 with former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Haley, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and Vivek Ramaswamy. Trump refused to participate in primary debates
ALASKA
Delegate Count: 29 – proportional
Voting hours on Election Day: 7am to 8pm
Early in-person voting?: Yes, 15 days before Election Day.
Open/Closed primary election?: Alaska uses a pick-one primary election. It means all candidates, regardless of party, appear on a single ballot and voters choose one. The top four candidates who earn the most number of votes move onto the general election.
Polling: There appears to be no readily available polling for the presidential primary election in Alaska. But hypothetical general election match-ups from Alaska Survey Research conducted in October 2023 put Trump 8 percentage points ahead of President Joe Biden.
ARKANSAS
Delegate Count: 40 – winner take most
Voting hours on Election Day: 7:30am to 7:30pm
Early in-person voting?: Yes, 15 days before Election Day.
Open/Closed primary election?: Open. Voters can choose which party’s ballot they wish to vote in. It does not register the voter with a particular political party.
Polling: There appears to be no readily available polling for the presidential primary between Trump and Haley in Arkansas. A poll from Echelon Insights in September 2023 put Trump 29 percentage points ahead of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who was still in the primary race at the time.
Former United Nations Amb. Nikki Haley refused to drop out of the race after each defeat in the early primary contest states of Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina. Super Tuesday is her last chance to prevent Trump from picking up enough delegates to sink her chances of an upset. Pictured: Haley speaks during a rally in Bloomington, Minnesota on Feb. 26, 2024
CALIFORNIA
Delegate Count: 169 – winner take most, unless a 50 percent threshold is reached, then it’s winner take all.
Voting hours on Election Day: 7am to 8pm
Early in-person voting? Yes, 29 days before Election Day.
Open/Closed primary election?: California is a top two primary state, meaning all candidates are listed on the same ballot regardless of party affiliation.
Polling: Trump is 54.2 percentage points ahead of Haley in California (73.1 percent to 18.9 percent), according to FiveThirtyEight’s average of the state’s primary election surveys.
The largest blue state in the country, California has the most number of delegates to allocate in both the Republican and Democratic primary elections.
California’s Republican Party changed its procedures this year that most view as a way to favor Trump.
If a candidate earns a 50 percent threshold in the primary election, they earn all of the delegates for the state.
COLORADO
Delegate Count: 37 – winner take most
Voting hours on Election Day: 7am to 7pm
Early in-person voting?: Yes, 15 days before Election Day.
Open/Closed primary election?: Hybrid. If registered, voters must cast their ballot in their party’s primary. But unaffiliated voters can vote for whichever ballot they choose in the primary – but only one.
Polling: There appears to be no readily available polling for the presidential primary between Trump and Haley in Colorado. There are several polls for a general matchup between Trump and Biden that put that president a handful of points ahead of his predecessor.
Colorado’s Supreme Court ruled on December 19, 2023 that Trump is ineligible to appear on the state’s primary ballot. The Justices claim that Trump violated Section 3 of the 14th Amendment by participating in an insurrection on January 6, 2021.
But the decision was appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court, putting a stay on the Colorado decision and allowing Trump to be included on printouts of the 2024 primary ballot in the state.
In oral arguments earlier this month in Washington, D.C., justices on the 6-3 conservative majority Supreme Court signaled it would rule in favor of the former president and allow him to remain on the ballot in Colorado.
That would pave the way to make defunct lawsuits in other states seeking to remove Trump from the 2024 ballot under the 14th Amendment.
Activists unfurl a banner outside the U.S. Supreme Court in Washington d.c. as it heard arguments in an appeal of a Colorado case disqualifying Trump from the 2024 ballot under Clause 3 of the 14th Amendment alleging he ‘engaged in insurrection’ on Jan. 6, 2021
MAINE
Delegate Count: 20 – winner take most
Voting hours on Election Day: 6am to 8pm
Early in-person voting?: Yes, as soon as absentee ballots are ready, which is usually 30-45 days before Election Day.
Open/Closed primary election?: Hybrid. If registered, voters must cast their ballot in their party’s primary. But unaffiliated voters can vote in whichever party’s primary they choose – but only one of them.
Polling: A February 15-19 poll by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center shows Trump 58 percentage points ahead of Haley in Maine (77 percent to 19 percent).
In Maine, Trump’s name will appear on the ballot despite an attempt by Democratic Secretary of State Shenna Bellows to remove it.
She decided Trump should be removed under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment to the Constitution.
That bars someone from standing if they have taken part in insurrection and she argued Trump had done so on January 6, 2021.
However, a Maine judge put that decision on hold pending the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision on a similar case in Colorado.
Regardless, the ballots in Maine are already printed with Trump’s name on them.
Bellows said: ‘Donald Trump’s name is in fact on the ballot, as are the names of all of the candidates who submitted petition papers, qualified and did not formally withdraw with the state of Maine.’
MASSACHUSETTS
Delegate Count: 40 – winner takes most
Voting hours on Election Day: 7am to 8pm
Early in-person voting?: Yes, 10 days before primary Election Day.
Open/Closed primary election?: Hybrid. If registered, voters must cast their ballot in their party’s primary. But unenrolled voters can choose which party’s primary to take part in.
Polling: Trump is ahead of Haley by 36.2 percentage points in a FiveThirtyEight average of polling in Massachusetts. The latest taken February 3-6 by Advantage Inc./Fiscal Alliance Foundation has Trump with 65 percent to Haley’s 22 percent – a 43 percent margin.
Massachusetts and Vermont are among the few states where Haley hopes she can pick up some more delegates on Super Tuesday.
As very blue New England states with either partially open or open primaries, more left-leaning and Democratic voters are able to head to the polls for the Republican primary to vote for Haley in protest of Trump’s nomination.
MINNESOTA
Delegate Count: 39 – winner take all
Voting hours on Election Day: 7am to 8pm
Early in-person voting?: Yes, absentee voting 46 days before Election Day.
Open/Closed primary election?: Open. Voters can choose which party’s primary they wish to vote in. It does not register the voter with a particular political party.
Polling: A survey conducted January 24-29 by SurveyUSA in Minnesota shows Trump 62 percentage points ahead of Haley (76 percent to 14 percent).
NORTH CAROLINA
Delegate Count: 74 – proportional
Voting hours on Election Day: 6:30am to 7:30pm
Early in-person voting?: Yes, third Thursday before Election Day.
Open/Closed primary election?: Partially closed. Each party can choose whether to allow unaffiliated voters to vote in their primary. This year, unaffiliated voters may choose which party’s ballot to fill out. If none of the candidates earn 30 percent of the vote, there is a primary runoff for a few weeks after the election with the top two candidates.
Polling: Trump is ahead of Haley by 53.6 percent in North Carolina, according to a FiveThirtyEight polling average in the state. The latest poll from Capen Analytics on February 21 shows Trump with 64 percent and Haley with 36 percent in North Carolina – a 28-point margin.
Democrats are looking to flip North Carolina in the general election.
The state has a Democratic governor and attorney general, but a majority Republican legislature and is becoming increasingly purple over time.
In the 2016 presidential election, Trump won with 49.8 percent of the vote, which was 3.6 percent more than Hillary Clinton. That margin shrunk to just 1.3 percent in 2020 with Trump earning 49.9 percent to Biden’s 48.6 percent.
The largest voting bloc in North Carolina is now unaffiliated voters, along with the number of registered Democrats going down and the registered Republican count going up. Democrats have lost 81,395 voters and Republicans have added 37,285 voters in the last two years.
Meanwhile, the number of unaffiliated voters in the state grew by 232,212 – meaning they can choose whether they wish to fill out a Republican or Democratic ballot.
The states breakdown is 36.7 percent unaffiliated, 32.5 percent registered Democrat and 30 percent registered Republican.
OKLAHOMA
Delegate Count: 43 – winner take most
Voting hours on Election Day: 7am to 7pm
Early in-person voting?: Yes, absentee voting the Wednesday preceding Election Day.
Open/Closed primary election? Partially closed. Each party can choose whether to allow unaffiliated voters to vote in their primary in November of each odd-numbered year. Since 2021, Democrats have allowed independents to vote in their primaries, but the Republican and Libertarian parties have not made the same determination. If a candidate does not earn 51 percent of the vote, Oklahoma holds a primary runoff a few weeks later.
Polling: A Morning Consult poll conducted in Oklahoma on January 23 through February 4 puts Trump a whopping 77 percentage points ahead of Haley (88 percent to 11 percent). Previous polling in the state put Trump up against DeSantis.
TENNESSEE
Delegate Count: 58 – winner take most
Voting hours on Election Day: Opening varies by county, but polls close in Eastern time zones at 8pm and Central time zones at 7pm
Early in-person voting?: Yes, 20 days before Election Day.
Open/Closed primary election?: Partially open. Tennessee allows voters to participate in whichever party’s primary they choose when signing in with a poll worker.
Polling: A FiveThirtyEight polling average has Trump 68.6 percentage points ahead of Haley (83.6 percent to 15 percent).
TEXAS
Delegate Count: 161 – winner take most
Voting hours on Election Day: 7am to 7pm
Early in-person voting?: Yes, 17 days before Election Day.
Open/Closed primary election?: Open. Voters can choose which party’s ballot they wish to vote for in each primary election. It does not register the voter with a particular political party. If a candidate does not earn 51 percent of the vote, Texas holds a primary runoff election a few weeks later with the two highest-earning candidates.
Polling: Trump is 69.9 percentage points ahead of Haley in the Lone Star State, according to FiveThirtyEight’s polling average. The latest survey from YouGov taken February 2-12 shows Trump ahead by 71 points (80 percent to 9 percent).
Texas is the largest red state with the most delegates at stake in the primary election.
As the state bears the brunt of the southern border crisis, Texas voters are fired up this election cycle and want to get Trump back in the White House to reverse Biden’s immigration policies.
Republicans say that immigration is their first issue when deciding who to vote for in the 2024 presidential election – followed by inflation and the economy. Independent voters list immigration as the second largest issue for them.
An NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll taken earlier this month shows that 44 percent of Republican voters list immigration as their number-one voting issue.
The southern border crisis and illegal immigration remains the top issue for Republicans heading into the 2024 election. Pictured: A chain of migrants lock arms as they wade into the Rio Grande River to cross into Eagle Pass, Texas from Mexico on Feb. 24, 2024
Trump (pictured at the border in Jan. 2021) says that if elected president again he will initiate the largest deportation of illegal immigrants in U.S. history
UTAH (caucus)
Delegate Count: 40 – winner take most
Voting hours on Election Day: 7am to 8pm
Early in-person voting?: Yes, 14 days before election day. *Utah primarily conducts elections by mail.
Open/Closed primary election?: Partially closed. Each party can choose whether to allow unaffiliated voters to participate in their primary.
Polling: A Dan Jones & Associates poll conducted January 16-21 reveals that Trump is ahead of Haley by 27 percentage points among Utah’s registered voters (49 percent to 22 percent).
VERMONT
Delegate Count: 17 – winner take most
Voting hours on Election Day: Opening varies between 5am and 10am and all polling locations close at 7pm
Early in-person voting?: Yes, 45 days before Election Day. Vermont primarily conducts elections by mail.
Open/Closed primary election?: Open. Voters can choose which party’s ballot they wish to vote for in each primary election. It does not register the voter with a particular political party. If there is a tie, the candidates go to a primary runoff a few weeks after the election.
Polling: A University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll conducted among likely Republican voters in Vermont from February 15-19 shows 61 percent prefer Trump versus the 31 percent who prefer Haley.
VIRGINIA
Delegate Count: 48 – proportional
Voting hours on Election Day: 6am to 7pm
Early in-person voting?: Yes, 45 days before Election Day.
Open/Closed primary election?: Open. Voters can choose which party’s ballot they wish to vote for in each primary election. It does not register the voter with a particular political party.
Polling: Trump is 63.3 percentage points ahead of Haley in Virginia, according to FiveThirtyEight polling average. A Morning Consult poll has Trump 59 percent ahead of Haley (78 percent to 19 percent).
WHAT ABOUT THE DEMOCRATS?
The Democratic presidential primary is still happening even though incumbent President Biden is the de facto nominee with essentially no serious contenders.
Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.) is still running against Biden, but has so far failed to pick up a single delegate.
Democrats are holding Super Tuesday contests in the same states as Republicans with the exception of Alaska.
And the Democrats added Iowa to the list of states voting on March 5.
This year, Democrats broke from the decades-long tradition of holding their first contest in Iowa, while Republicans still had that state go first.