Donald Trump is on course for a record-breaking win in the Iowa caucuses, according to the final poll before decision day, which forecasts he will take 48 percent of the vote.
However, the NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows that it is Nikki Haley who continues her rise, cutting slightly into Trump’s lead and giving her a clear second place with 20 percent.
That leaves Florida governor Ron DeSantis in third with 16 percent, in a state where he needs a strong second place to keep his campaign on track.
The state is the first in the nation to pick its preferred candidate, and can make or break campaigns.
On Saturday evening, Ann Selzer, the state’s best-known and most-accurate pollster, released her much-anticipated final poll before caucus day.
The NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll was conducted Jan. 7-12 with 705 likely Republican caucus goers. Its margin of error is plus-minus 3.7 percentage points
Donald Trump has been crushing his opponents in Iowa polls. But things get real on Monday evening at 7pm when Republicans caucus to pick their favored candidate. The final poll before caucus puts him on 48 percent support – three points less than the same poll in December
Her poll in December had Trump with 51 percent, DeSantis on 19 percent, and Haley on 16 percent.
It means the former president has slipped slightly. But he is still on course to make history. If his lead holds on Monday it will be the biggest ever win for a nonincumbent in Iowa, beating Bob Dole’s 13-point win in 1988.
Insiders say their only worry is complacency.
‘Our grassroots supporters have put us in position to win, and now we have to show up to caucus for President Trump on Monday and get the job done,’ said Trump, after the poll was released. ‘We have to show up.’
Meanwhile it is Haley, former governor of South Carolina, who is building momentum as the candidates get to the business end of the race, while DeSantis struggles to make headway.
‘This is a tough poll for Gov. DeSantis, who has bet the house on Iowa,’ said Jimmy Centers, a Republican strategist who is unaligned in this race.
‘The good news is that many Iowans are leaving the door open to changing their minds, or haven’t settled on a candidate yet.
‘But, voters generally like aligning with a winner, or a candidate on the rise – neither of which he appears to be.’
With the race moving next to New Hampshire, and its more moderate Republican Party, a poor result in Iowa could deal a fatal blow to his entire campaign.
Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis are locked in battle for second place in Iowa
Republican presidential candidate businessman Vivek Ramaswamy is on eight percent
DeSantis has a big ground game. It will be put to the test on Monday. Eli Weltman of Never Back Down, an independent group backing DeSantis, talks to a voter in Marion on Wednesday
EXCLUSIVEREAD MORE: Meet the DeSantis supporter who has knocked on more than 20,000 doors in Iowa
And it is not all positive news for Haley. She fared less well in other parts of the poll, with just nine percent of her support saying they were ‘extremely enthusiastic’ about her.
‘There is underlying weakness here,’ said Selzer, who conducted the poll. ‘If turnout is low, it seems to me that a disproportionate share of her supporters might stay at home.’
Much of her support is also drawn from independents and Democrats, who will have to register as Republicans if they are to have a say in Monday’s caucuses.
Rabble rousing tech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy comes fourth with eight percent.
Trump lost Iowa in 2016 to Ted Cruz, who was better able to court the state’s big evangelical vote.
This time around, the Trump campaign has left nothing to chance, building out a big ground game to get the vote out on Monday, and hitting rivals hard.
However, a string of polls that put him 30 points ahead of his nearest rivals mean that anything short of a record-breaking win will be seen as a poor result and give DeSantis and Haley encouragement to push on.
For his part, DeSantis has gambled much of his campaign resources on Iowa. He knows that New Hampshire, the next state to make its decision, is less fertile ground for his conservative, anti-woke message.
In contrast, Haley is polling well in the Granite State and can afford a modest showing in Iowa.
They returned to campaign events Saturday, battling frigid weather to reach Republicans who have 48 hours to make up their minds.
Strong winds sent snow blasting across Iowa on Saturday, as temperatures dropped below zero. A truck is engulfed by snow on US Highway 20 near Sac City
Haley put in appearance in the college town of Iowa City, one of the state’s most Democratic areas. It is in keeping with her efforts to win over independents and moderates.
Both challengers finished the day with events in the Mississippi River town of Davenport, one of the more Republican towns in the east of the state.
In contrast, Trump abandoned plans for two rallies and instead called in to ‘tele-rallies.’
DeSantis ridiculed his strategy.
‘We’re in, we’re showing up. Donald Trump has phoned it in. He’s going to be in Mar-a-Lago. It’s probably 75 degrees there,’ he told supporters in Council Bluffs, where the outside temperature was -5F.
The bitter weather could throw another twist into a notoriously hard-to-predict system.
Campaigns will have to work even harder to make sure they get their supporters to Monday’s caucuses.