Scientists are yet to develop a fool-proof method of predicting earthquakes – but a fascinating study suggests your pet’s behavior could give you an early warning.
There are numerous anecdotal accounts claiming animals exhibit abnormal behavior prior to seismic events, such as abandoning their habitats or displaying restlessness.
To investigate this phenomenon, researchers from the Max Planck Institute of Animal Behavior and the University of Konstanz attached sensors to cows, sheep, and dogs in an earthquake-prone region of Italy.
After monitoring their movements over several months, their findings revealed a notable increase in out of the ordinary activity among the animals in the hours preceding earthquakes.
The study also found that unusual behavior was typically observed earlier in animals located closer to the eventual epicenter of the earthquake.
The study aimed to show animals’ movement patterns could potentially provide valuable clues about the timing and location of future seismic events.
On an Italian farm situated in an earthquake-prone region, researchers equipped six cows, five sheep, and two dogs – known for previous unusual pre-quake behavior—with accelerometer collars to continuously record their movements over several months.
The area experienced approximately 18,000 earthquakes during this period, including twelve significant quakes (magnitude 4 or higher).
Rather than focusing solely on pre-quake behavior, the researchers identified statistically significant behavioral changes in the animals using objective criteria.
‘This method prevents us from merely finding correlations after the fact,’ said study leader Martin Wikelski.
The data, representing each animal’s activity level, was then analyzed using statistical models typically employed in financial econometrics.
‘Because every animal reacts differently in size, speed and according to species, the animal data resemble data on heterogenous financial investors,’ said the study’s co-author Winfried Pohlmeier.
To isolate earthquake-related behavior, researchers accounted for other factors influencing animal activity patterns.
In their findings, researchers observed unusual animal behaviors up to 20 hours before earthquakes.
Notably, animals closer to the epicenter exhibited earlier changes, aligning with the hypothesis that pre-earthquake physical changes are more pronounced near the epicenter.
However, these patterns were evident only when analyzing collective animal behavior, suggesting a group-level ability not easily discernible at the individual level.
The exact mechanism by which animals sense impending earthquakes remains unclear. Potential explanations include the detection of air ionization caused by rock pressure or the sensing of gases released from quartz crystals.
To explore the potential of an animal-based earthquake early warning system, researchers developed a real-time monitoring system.
Accelerometer data is transmitted every three minutes, triggering alerts when abnormal animal activity persists for at least 45 minutes.
A successful test, predicting a small earthquake three hours in advance, demonstrated the system’s feasibility.
The institute understands that to refine this approach, extensive long-term studies involving diverse animal populations across various earthquake zones are necessary.