Aussies fleeing the housing affordability crisis in Sydney and Melbourne are choosing to settle in more affordable regional centres that are still within reach of capital cities.
Those making a sea or tree change from a major city are choosing destinations like Newcastle, Geelong, and the Sunshine Coast as their new home, based on Commonwealth Bank customer data shared with the Regional Institute.
These three towns are within two hours of Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane respectively and share some of the delights of ‘s biggest cities – just without the same prohibitive cost.
‘They’re bigger centres … they come with the amenity that can sometimes be a barrier for other regional locations,’ said Liz Ritchie, CEO of the Regional Institute.
‘It’s a big decision to move and so (they have) closer proximity, where they know that they can drive within a couple of hours back to see family or friends back in that capital city.
‘It makes sense that your first move might just be dipping your toe in the water.’
It is clear that many ns are moving – with New South Wales reporting an exodus of 28,000 residents this year, while cheaper south east Queensland gained 26,000 residents.
However, just over 3,200 people leave Victoria every year, suggesting many leaving Melbourne are heading to a regional area a short drive away rather than another state with warmer weather.
In Victoria, Geelong received the largest share of migration from another part of with a generous 9.3 per cent share, Regional Institute data showed.
The neighbouring Moorabool council area, north of Geelong, gets 3.7 per cent of interstate migration while Ballarat attracts 2.4 per cent of ns relocating.
Queensland gets the biggest number of ns moving from another state with the Sunshine Coast north of Brisbane getting an 8.9 per cent of movers.
Surprisingly, the Gold Coast is no longer the hotspot for interstate migration it once was, attracting just one per cent of Aussie movers.
‘Having spoken to many people who live there, it was very popular in the Covid period, then we felt that it was starting to experience some of the growing pains,’ Ms Ritchie said.
‘Even just getting around, driving regular sort of errands, became quite difficult.
‘As price rises increase, places become too hot.’
Instead, the Fraser Coast – which includes Hervey Bay – was the second most popular place to move to, getting 3.3 per cent of relocators.
Nearby Gympie is the third most popular tree change destination, with a two per cent share.
In New South Wales, areas near Newcastle are the magnets for those moving to a regional area.
Lake Macquarie attracted 5.3 per cent of people moving from another part of while nearby Maitland took in 3.5 per cent of movers.
The Shoalhaven council area – covering Nowra and Ulladulla on the south coast – was the third most popular place to resettle in NSW, getting 2.6 per cent of interstate migration.
When it came to making the move to a regional area, Millennials born from 1981 to 1996 were the most enthusiastic about change.
More than half or 57 per cent of Millennials are considering such a move, a YouGov poll of 1,028 people for the Regional Institute found.
In a break with recent decades, those in their thirties and forties raising children are now actively considering a regional area, where they could afford a house with a backyard and be close to nature.
‘What was once not happening is now happening and so they’re taking over,’ Ms Ritchie said.
‘The housing’s more affordable, cheaper cost of living and you don’t have the commute.
‘Because of the hip pocket, high inflation, high interest rates – the issues we’ve been reading about daily for the last two years, this is driving these decisions.’
Moving to a regional area also gives young people the chance to be more involved with the community they live in.
‘Not only do they want to buy a house, they also want to coach the local football team or be part of the local community group, whatever it is that makes them tick,’ she said.
‘So you do have more time and more space and more connection to each other and more connection to the environment.’
Generation Z adults – born from 1997 onwards – were also open minded about moving, with 40 per cent inclined to make the move, putting it well ahead of the 25 per cent of boomers considering a change.
The e61 Institute think tank noted Millennial and Gen Z ns – aged 25 to 34 – were particularly struggling to buy a home, like their parents were able to do at the same age ‘with this disparity greater in capital cities’.
‘Regardless of occupation, Millennials are leaving Sydney and, more recently, Melbourne, as traditional milestones like owning a home may no longer be seen as attainable to many young ns living in these major cities,’ it said.
‘Whether home ownership rates will converge with age remains to be seen.’
The ability of white collar professionals to work from home is also accelerating the move to regional areas among younger people.
Some 47 per cent of those able to work from home say they would consider moving and continuing in their current role on a remote or hybrid basis.
Ms Ritchie suggested working from home was now embedded in ‘s workplace culture, and could accelerate the shift to regional areas among the young.
‘It tells us that this is here to stay,’ she said.
‘They’re moving because they want to bring the job that they’re in, they want to work remotely.
‘Look at how our technology and connectivity has emerged and the pace of change – with that technology uplift, younger people are taking advantage of those opportunities.’
The number of Millennials moving to a regional area grew by 54,000 between the 2016 and 2021 Census surveys, a Regional Institute analysis showed.
Even before Covid, a major shift was underway.
‘Probably you have to go back to the mid-1950s – so a massive change really in a short period.’
To illustrate this point, house prices in regional areas rose by 5.4 per cent over the year to May, CoreLogic data showed.
This outpaced the three per cent growth pace of capital cities.
But regional ‘s median house price of $693,693 is still a third cheaper than the $1million-plus midpoint of the big cities.