And then there was none. Only a few months ago around a dozen hopefuls — no-hopers might be a more accurate description — were challenging Donald Trump for the Republican presidential nomination.
After early contests in Iowa and New Hampshire the field was dramatically whittled down, leaving only one challenger still standing in Saturday’s South Carolina primary — Nikki Haley.
She’s proved to be almost as much of a no-hoper as the rest of them, losing by 20 points (60% to 40%) — and in her home state too, where she was a reasonably popular governor for six years.
Even candidates who eventually lose usually win their home states, as Senator Ted Cruz (Texas) and Governor John Kasich (Ohio) did against Trump in the 2016 race for the Republican nomination.
But not Haley.
Florida Senator Marco Rubio (whom Haley supported) lost his state by 19 points to Trump in 2016 (about the same margin of defeat as Haley). That ended his presidential bid, as her own backyard has Haley’s.
Florida Senator Marco Rubio (whom Haley supported) lost his state by 19 points to Trump in 2016 (about the same margin of defeat as Haley). That ended his presidential bid, as her own backyard has Haley’s. (Above) Haley speaks at primary night gathering in Charleston, South Carolina on February 24, 2024
Only a few months ago around a dozen hopefuls — no-hopers might be a more accurate description — were challenging Donald Trump for the Republican presidential nomination.
It will probably be mid-March before Trump has chalked up a majority of the delegates going to the Republican convention in Milwaukee in July. But to all intents and purposes he already has the nomination in the bag, as sure as night follows day. After South Carolina, Haley has no possible path to victory.
Thus is America heading for the Donald Trump v Joe Biden re-match that most of the country doesn’t want.
True, Haley is battling on, campaigning in Michigan (primary on Tuesday) within hours of going down to defeat in her home state and with enough funds to mount credible campaigns in the numerous states up for grabs on Super Tuesday (March 5th). Though to what purpose is not clear.
She has no hope of winning a single state or territory among the 21 in contention over the next 10 days.
South Carolina was projected for Trump within minutes of the polls closing. When Haley spoke from her Charleston HQ a few hours later she was less defiant than in New Hampshire when, far from giving a concession speech, she talked as if her defeat had been a victory, irritating Trump to no end in the process.
Now she was more subdued, the bravado gone, more stubborn than over-confident.
She claimed she’d ‘keep fighting’ to give people ‘a choice’, repeating her campaign mantra that Trump can’t beat President Biden come the general election in November.
It will probably be mid-March before Trump has chalked up a majority of the delegates going to the Republican convention in Milwaukee in July.
Even candidates who eventually lose usually win their home states, as Senator Ted Cruz (Texas) and Governor John Kasich (Ohio) did against Trump in the 2016 race for the Republican nomination. But not Haley. (Above) Republican presidential candidate Ted Cruz speaks at primary victory party in Houston on March 15, 2016
But Republicans have already made their choice and the Trump core now in control of the party disagrees with her: they believe he can and will beat Biden.
Some speculate that her continuing attacks on Trump and Biden are in preparation for a Third Party candidacy for president under, perhaps, the ‘No Labels’ umbrella.
Yet that is no route to the White House for her and it would destroy her forever in the Republican Party, something she’s spent years cultivating.
I very much doubt she will choose to go down that rocky road.
Others see her as being a ‘break glass in case of emergency’ fallback, putting herself in pole position should something unforeseen — perhaps a criminal conviction and jail time — go seriously wrong for Trump.
But she already enjoys that status and staying in the primary race only annoys even non-MAGA Republican strategists who think the party should now be concentrating on how to beat Biden, not still squabbling among itself. After all, Republicans don’t just want the White House. They want to take the Senate and expand their House majority too.
My guess is that she sees herself as the ‘I told you so’ candidate.
I’m assured she really does believe Trump can’t beat Biden and when (as she thinks) he loses in November, she will be in a pivotal position to remold a post-Trump Republican Party in her more mainstream image, making her the natural leader to lead the Republicans into the 2028 presidential election when, after eight years of Democratic rule, ‘time for a change’ will be a powerful campaign slogan.
Others see Haley as being a ‘break glass in case of emergency’ fallback, putting herself in pole position should something unforeseen — perhaps a criminal conviction and jail time — go seriously wrong for Trump. (Above) Haley greets supporters in Charleston, South Carolina on February 24, 2024
Republicans have already made their choice and the Trump core now in control of the party disagrees with Haley: they believe he can and will beat Biden. (Above) Trump and Senator Lindsey Graham (far left) address supporters in Columbia, South Carolina on February 24, 2024.
That’s all possible, though it’s never popular with the party faithful to base a strategy on your own side going down to defeat.
It’s also unclear the Republican Party will be any less ‘MAGA’ without Trump. The Trumpers are now in control of the party and will not easily relinquish their grip even when Trump has departed the stage.
Yet Trump is not quite the political juggernaut his primary victories indicate — or his core support claims. His 20-point victory was less than his 30-point lead in the final polls; and, as Haley said Saturday night, ‘40% [her share of the South Carolina vote] is not some tiny group’.
Though it was bolstered by independents and Democrats (Palmetto State voters, regardless of party affiliation, can cast a ballot in either the Republican or Democratic primaries), there is nevertheless a clear Republican rump that does not want Trump. Some polls have found that around 20% of GOP voters say they will not vote for him.
Trump claimed in his South Carolina victory speech, which had none of the venom of his post-New Hampshire remarks in which he ungraciously attacked Haley, that he had ‘never seen the Republican Party more unified’.
That is untrue.
His cult following certainly controls the grassroots and even the party establishment now largely bows before him (Haley may have been governor of South Carolina but all the local party bigwigs backed Trump). However, there is clearly a minority of Republicans who resent Trump’s domination.
Of course they could fall in line as the general election approaches, as recalcitrant party loyalists often do, and the prospect of beating Biden becomes the priority.
But it would take only about 5% of reluctant Republicans to stay at home or vote Democrat in the swing states and Trump could lose again to Biden.
Trump’s problem is that events and actions which consolidate his base only further alienate those moderates and independents he needs for victory in November.
When courts fine him $450m for exaggerating his net worth to clinch bank loans to finance property deals or order him to pay $83m for defaming a woman who accused him of rape, the cult sees this as further proof of a deep-state conspiracy at the heart of the judicial system to do him down.
Moderate Republicans and independents wonder aloud if such a man should be allowed back into the Oval Office.
When Trump says he wouldn’t mind Russia invading NATO allies not spending enough on defense or attacks Haley’s husband for not being on the campaign trail with her (he’s on military service in Africa), the core sees a straight-shooter who’s not afraid to say things other politicians wouldn’t dare.
Trump claimed in his South Carolina victory speech, which had none of the venom of his post-New Hampshire remarks in which he ungraciously attacked Haley, that he had ‘never seen the Republican Party more unified’. (Above) Trump in New Hampshire on January 23, 2024
It would take only about 5% of reluctant Republicans to stay at home or vote Democrat in the swing states and Trump could lose again to Biden. (Above) President Biden at the White House on February 24, 2024
Others are more likely to conclude this is not a man fit to be commander in chief.
When Trump claims the reason black voters are drawn to him is because he has a prison mugshot and faces 91 criminal charges, the cult chuckles.
The rest of the country just shakes its head in disgust and astonishment at what it reveals of Trump’s image of America’s black population.
Trump will not change. He will continue to delight his fans and appall even those whose votes he needs to return to the White House. A criminal conviction between now and November might serve to galvanize the base but it could be fatal for his hopes of wooing more moderate voters.
But Donald Trump is a lucky man.
If he was up against any mainstream Democrat other than Joe Biden he would likely be a loser come November, as he was in 2020 and in the 2022 midterms (and in 2018 too).
Against Biden, Trump has the makings of a winner, no matter how much ugly baggage is strewn around him.