is facing a second exodus from unaffordable major cities – with southeast Queensland the hotspot for those fleeing Sydney and Melbourne for good.
The Sunshine Coast and the Gold Coast are the nation’s top two destinations for those leaving the big smoke for a regional area, a Regional Institute of report has found.
They were followed by Moorabool – an area northwest of Melbourne that takes in towns including Bacchus Marsh; Lake Macquarie, south of Newcastle; and the regional Victorian city of Geelong.
Those making the move to a regional area are more likely to be aged between 28 and 43 – the time when people are more likely to marry and have children.
The exodus – which follows an earlier movement of young people away from the two largest cities during Covid – is expected to have a significant effect on families as Millennials move far away from their boomer parents to have children of their own.
‘In terms of Sydneysiders, Millennials are the ones leading the charge out into the regions,’ the report said.
Regional Institute chief executive Liz Ritchie said the move from big cities to regional areas was more than a Covid fad.
‘This movement in population can no longer be seen as a quirky flow-on effect from the lockdown years,’ she said. ‘A societal shift is under way.’
1. SUNSHINE COAST, Queensland: 11.8 per cent share
2. GOLD COAST, Queensland: 10.8 per cent share
3. MOORABOOL, Victoria: 5.4 per cent share
4. LAKE MACQUARIE, New South Wales: 4.7 per cent
5. GEELONG, Victoria: 4.6 per cent share
Source: Regional Institute data on capital city to regional area migration by council area in year to March 2024
Dr Tony Matthews, an urban planning lecturer at Griffith University in Brisbane, said the influx of young people from Sydney and Melbourne to the Gold Coast was likely to see more high-rise apartments near the beach.
Southeast Queensland has been grappling with a housing shortage, with Dr Matthews noting there are ‘too many people wanting to move in and too few properties available’.
‘If you can get into the Gold Coast, you’re likely to have a better lifestyle and less commuting and more time to spend on the beach,’ he told Daily Mail .
‘Whenever you get population pressures, and you don’t want to just keep using up more and more land, then really, the only solution that you have with the urban planning is higher density.’
Gold Coast real estate is now more expensive than suburbs in major capital cities, with Elanora’s median house price surging by 16.8 per cent during the past year to $1.385million – making it just as expensive as homes in Sydney’s congested western suburbs.
Pockets of southeast Queensland also have some of the nation’s most dramatic population growth, a closer look at n Bureau of Statistics data showed.
Caloundra West on the Sunshine Coast saw a 9.8 per cent population surge in 2023 – largely based on 1,407 new residents from other parts of .
Miami on the Gold Coast had a 4.7 per cent population increase, with 116 new residents from within and 201 from overseas.
This occurred as 38,425 people left Sydney for another part of , as high overseas immigration pushed up house prices.
The movement to regional areas is become more intense as the nation grapples with a housing crisis, with construction companies now making up a quarter of insolvencies.
Dr Matthews said building companies that survived higher material costs would be unlikely to scale up to meet the higher demand for new housing, as the population surged.
‘For every construction company that folds, that’s one less around the place and so, you have less companies trying to handle the same volume of work and it’s not like the survivors are necessarily able to upscale quickly,’ he said.
‘It also reduces choice in the market for consumers so it’s a very bad situation and it’s the worst possible thing to be having right now.’
The number of new homes is failing to keep pace with record-high immigration.
In the year to March, 171,667 new homes were built as 487,940 migrants moved to .
That left a shortfall of 58,772 based on n households having 2.5 people on average.
‘With any resource where you’ve got significantly more demand than supply, price goes up – economics 101,’ Dr Matthews said.
‘The trajectory of the migration system, currently and over the last few years, has absolutely added to the problem; it is certainly adding a lot more pressure into a system which is already under severe stress.’