A new poll shows Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris with a slight edge in a state that a Democrat hasn’t won since 2008.
A Quinnipiac University poll released Monday shows Harris ahead of former President Donald Trump in North Carolina.
Former President Barack Obama flipped North Carolina in 2008, but no Democrat – including Obama four years later – has been able to do so since.
At the same time, Trump is ahead of Harris in Georgia, a state President Joe Biden flipped to the Democratic column in 2020.
The poll found that in North Carolina, Harris leads Trump 49 percent to 46 percent, while in Georgia Trump leads Harris 49 percent to 45 percent, among likely voters.
In North Carolina, Green Party candidate Jill Stein was polling at 1 percent, while other third party candidates weren’t registering at that level.
In Georgia, it was independent progressive candidate Cornell West and the Party for Socialism and Liberation candidate Claudia De la Cruz who received 1 percent support.
With indepedent presidential hopeful Robert F. Kennedy Jr. off the ballot in most swing states, third-party candidates aren’t having as much of an impact on the race.
When pollsters only gave the option of Trump or Harris, in North Carolina the Democrat continued to lead – 50 percent to 47 percent – and in Georgia Trump still had an advantage – 49 percent to 46 percent.
Harris’ lead in North Carolina is inside the plus or minus 3.2 percent margin of error, while Trump’s lead in Georgia is just barely outside of it.
Polling was conducted September 4 to 8.
Trump and Harris will meet each other for the first time ever on the debate stage Tuesday night in Philadelphia.
In both southern states, which historically have voted for Republican presidential candidates in recent decades, there are wide gaps in gender and race, with men and white likely voters trending Trump and women and voters of color tilting Harris.
In Georgia, however, Trump is performing better with white voters and with women than he does in North Carolina, which explains how Harris is ahead in the latter.
Fifty-six percent of men in North Carolina back Trump, while just 38 percent back Harris, while 60 percent of women in the state want Harris, compared to just 37 percent of women.
Black likely voters split 85 percent to 13 percent in support of Harris, while white voters split 56 percent to 41 percent in support of Trump.
White voters in Georgia are more heavily tilted toward Trump – 68 percent to 28 percent.
Black voters in Georgia share a similar breakdown to North Carolina voters – 68 percent to 28 percent.
The same percentage of men in Georgia are supporting Trump – 56 percent – while 37 percent of Georgia men are backing Harris.
The breakdown among female voters in Georgia is 52 percent for Harris, 43 percent for Trump, meaning a smaller chunk of women are voting Harris in Georgia than in North Carolina.