San Francisco Mayor London Breed is on course to lose her reelection bid to a no-nonsense rival pledging to clean up the city.
The incumbent mayor, 49, suffered poor results in a new poll from the San Francisco Chronicle that found she would lose her office to the man who briefly held it before her, Mark Farrell, 50.
In a tight three-way race, Farrell registered 20 percent support, Breed registered 18 percent, and Levi Strauss heir Daniel Lurie registered 16 percent.
While the candidates were closely matched, San Francisco’s use of ranked choice voting in its mayoral elections would see her struggle – with Breed receiving far fewer second-choice votes than either Farrell or Lurie.
Ranked choice voting uses a rounds-based system where if no candidate reaches 50 percent support, the lowest ranked candidate is eliminated, and their votes go to their voters’ second choice until one reaches a majority.
London Breed, 49, is on course to lose the mayoralty of San Francisco in a new poll, which found a staggering 71 percent of voters disapprove of her job performance
Former acting mayor Mark Farrell came out narrowly on top in the new poll – as he runs on a no-nonsense campaign to clean up San Francisco’s crumbling streets
Farrell said San Francisco has become the ‘butt of jokes across the country’ as rampant homelessness and drug taking takes over the city
Farrell’s place at the top of the poll comes as he runs a campaign focused on the downturn of San Francisco’s economy and the prevalence of homelessness and overdoses on its streets.
A former venture capitalist, Farrell served as the city’s acting mayor for six months in 2018 after he was appointed to the post following the death of Mayor Ed Lee.
Farrell didn’t seek re-election after serving as acting mayor, and Breed won the election in July 2018.
When he announced his candidacy for mayor in February 2023, he slammed Breed’s handling of the city since she took office as he pushed a stern platform to clean up the streets.
‘I’ve watched San Francisco crumble over the last five years,’ he told the New York Times.
‘Public safety has never been a bigger concern. The conditions of our streets have never been worse. Our local economy has collapsed. And we’ve become the butt of jokes across the country.
‘This mayor has completely failed us.’
His self-described common-sense platform to turn the city around would see him ‘massively’ increase police ranks, detain drug overdose victims who survive, and empty the numerous homeless encampments.
Farrell served as acting San Francisco mayor for six months in 2018. His platform calls for an increase in cops across the city and arrests for those who overdose and survive
San Francisco is reeling from soaring crime, an emptying downtown, and residents moving away to safer, cheaper areas
The city sharply declined when the pandemic struck in 2020, with drug overdose rates skyrocketing
San Francisco’s economy has also taken a dive in recent years as businesses flee the rampant crime and homelessness across the city, with Farrell suggesting returning cars to the main thoroughfare to try and bring life back to the economy.
In the latest poll, Farrell’s lead was within the margin of error, and 40 percent of the electorate said they remain undecided.
However, experts said Breed’s 18 percent support means she is in ‘very, very serious trouble’, and is effectively in third place in the ranked choice voting system.
‘Obviously, with the number of undecided voters that we have, you don’t want to draw too firm of a conclusion,’ said Jonathan Brown, the Sextant Strategies & Research president who organized the poll.
‘But … if this is the field of major candidates right now, it certainly looks like Breed is in very, very serious trouble.’
More than a third of respondents said they would rank Breed last – including behind city Supervisor Ahsha Safai who registered eight percent support.
The 35 percent of voters who would rank Breed last compares to just seven percent for Lurie and six percent for Farrell.
In the ranked choice scenario, Lurie – who also runs a homelessness non-profit – would best Farrell as he received the highest number of second place votes.
However, experts stress it is too early to draw conclusions as the election is still eight months away.
Daniel Lurie, the heir to the Levi Strauss fortune who runs a homelessness non-profit, would take the lead in the race via ranked choice voting if the election was held today, the poll found
San Francisco Supervisor Ahsha Safai (right) registered at eight percent support in the new poll – but over one third of voters say they remain undecided
Breed’s lackluster polling also extended to questions put to respondents on her handling of the city, with a staggering 71 percent of voters disapproving of her job performance.
In contrast, just five percent of voters said they strongly approved of her performance, and 23 percent somewhat approved.
The poll also found that 61 percent of San Francisco residents feel their quality of life is ‘just adequate’ or ‘poor’.
Over two thirds of respondents said they disapproved of Breed’s handling of five major issues – keeping residents and businesses safe from crime; providing shelter to the homeless; keeping neighborhoods clean; handling the city’s overdose crisis; and providing enough reasonably priced housing.
Breed’s campaign has claimed she is turning the city’s problems around, and often cites a seven percent drop in crimes across the city last year.
Maggie Muir, a political consultant for her campaign, told the Chronicle that the poll also included a positive sign, with 70 percent of respondents saying they feel safe or somewhat safe in their neighborhood.
‘Mayor Breed continues to boldly lead the city’s recovery, with a laser focus on economic revitalization and public safety,’ Muir said.
‘The election that Mayor Breed is focused on right now is in two weeks when voters go to the polls for her proposed ballot measures to make the city safer, support our neighborhoods, and bring more investment and housing Downtown.’
While Muir claims that Breed is turning around the downtown area, it was on her watch that the hub has seen a dramatic decline.
The downtown area of San Francisco has seen a staggering number of businesses flee since the pandemic, citing lax policing, rampant homelessness and sickening open-air drug taking for driving them out of business
A woman lies passed out in front of a children’s play area in downtown San Francisco, where encountering zombie-like addicts has become a regular part of everyday life
As cars were halted through the main thoroughfare on Market Street through the pandemic, a slew of businesses including CVS, Amazon and Whole Foods have closed locations due to untamed crime.
Once a bustling center for the city’s economy, eerie images taken in January showed it almost devoid of people while many businesses were boarded up.
Farrell has pledged to bring businesses back to the city – and his campaign manager Jade Tu said she was ‘encouraged’ by his lead in the latest poll.
She noted that Farrell has a far lower name recognition than Breed, and his campaign is ‘just getting started.’
‘It is clear that voters have lost faith in Mayor Breed’s ability to turn San Francisco around and are hungry for a candidate who has a track record of effective leadership inside and outside of City Hall,’ Tu said.
‘Voters are backing Mayor Farrell’s vision and platform that is focused on creating a safer, cleaner, and more vibrant San Francisco on Day 1 of his administration.’