Vladimir Putin is plotting an attack on NATO territory to test the Western alliance’s mutual assistance clause, Germany’s spy chief has warned.
Bruno Kahl, the outgoing head of Germany’s federal intelligence service (BND), said in a rare interview that it has ‘concrete’ evidence Russia no longer believes NATO’s Article 5 will be honoured.
This is the clause which guarantees that if one member is attacked, all others will come to its aid.
He told the German podcast Table Briefings: ‘We see that NATO is supposed to be tested in its mutual assistance promise. There are people in Moscow who don’t believe that NATO article 5 still works.’
He said: ‘We are very sure, and we have intelligence evidence to back this up, that [Russia’s full-scale invasion of] Ukraine is only one step on Russia’s path towards the west.’
But Kahl was quick to add: ‘This doesn’t mean that we expect large tank battalions to roll from the east to the west.’
Russia did not need to do this because they could simply send ‘little green men to Estonia to protect supposedly oppressed Russian minorities’, the spy chief warned.
Moscow’s 2014 annexation of Crimea involved occupation of buildings and offices by Russian soldiers in unmarked uniforms and civilian clothes, who came to be known as the ‘little green men’ when Moscow initially denied their identity.
Kahl, who is set to become Germany’s ambassador to the Vatican, did not specify which officials in Moscow were thinking along these lines.
He said that Moscow’s ultimate aim was to push NATO back to its 1990s borders, ‘kick out’ the US from Europe and aggressively expand Russia’s influence.
‘We need to nip this in the bud’, he said.
Key to NATO cooperation, he pointed out, was the US and its enormous army.
Kahl said his contacts with U.S. counterparts had left him convinced they took the Russian threat seriously.
‘They take it as seriously as us, thank God,’ he said.
It comes after NATO boss Mark Rutte warned that Britons should start learning Russian if the UK doesn’t ramp up defence spending.
Mark Rutte issued the chilling message while in London for talks with PM Sir Keir Starmer, ahead of a NATO summit later this month.
NATO allies are expected to be asked at the gathering to agree a commitment on allocating 3.5 per cent of GDP to core defence spending by the 2030s.
A further 1.5 per cent of GDP would be required for ‘defence-related expenditure’ under Mr Rutte’s plan to strengthen the alliance.
It follows pressure from US President Donald Trump on European members of NATO to hike their military budgets.
There are questions about how the UK would fund such a huge increase – roughly equivalent to an extra £30billion annually.
Britain allocated 2.33 per cent of GDP to defence last year, and Sir Keir Starmer has only committed to reaching 2.5 per cent by April 2027.
The Labour Government has an ‘ambition’ of increasing that to 3 per cent in the next parliament – likely to run to 2034.
Speaking at Chatham House on Monday, Mr Rutte was asked if he believed Chancellor Rachel Reeves should raise taxes to meet NATO’s commitments.
The NATO secretary-general replied: ‘It’s not up to me to decide, of course, how countries pay the bill.
‘Look, if you do not do this, if you would not go to the 5 per cent, including the 3.5 per cent core defence spending, you could still have the NHS… the pension system etc., but you had better learn to speak Russian.’
Mr Rutte would not reveal the deadline for when he hopes NATO allies will spend 5 per cent of GDP on defence.
Asked about a deadline, he told reporters: ‘I have a clear view on when we should achieve that.
‘I keep that to myself, because we are having these consultations now with allies, and these discussions are ongoing.
‘We will in the end agree on a date when we have to be there.’