Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was attracting more donors with Republican leanings than Democrats ahead of last month’s announcement that he was launching an independent presidential run.
But new polling raises questions about whether the ex-Democrat will suck more support away from former President Donald Trump or President Joe Biden.
A Politico analysis found that $2 million of Kennedy’s large-dollar donations through September 30 came from supporters who previously gave money to Republicans, while $1.4 milllion came from those who previously contributed to Democrats.
Another $5.1 million came from small-dollar donations – individuals who gave less than $200 and thus don’t have to be tracked by the Federal Election Commission.
Kennedy raised $6.6 million – the bulk of his funds – from Americans who didn’t give money in the 2016 or 2020 cycles through ActBlue, the Democratic donor portal, or WinRed, the Republican one.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. speaks at a campaign stop last month in Nashville, Tennessee. The former Democrat turned independent seems to be sucking more support from the Republican side of the aisle, according to new donor data and polling
Presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy had more donors with a Republican history than a Democratic one, prior to announcing his independent presidential run in early October, a Politico analysis found
These donations all came in before Kennedy’s October 9 announcement in front of Independence Hall in Philadelphia that he would run as an independent and not a Democrat, frustrating family members who have long been associated with the Democratic Party.
They feared that he would play ‘spoiler’ to Biden, but Kennedy’s long association with the anti-vaxx movement and push for strong border policies, among other issues, has some ex-Trump supporters coming into his fold.
A Quinnipiac survey released Wednesday shows Biden squeaking out a win against Trump when it’s just the two of them on the ballot – 47 percent to 46 percent.
But when Kennedy is added in, Biden’s lead extends to three points over the ex-president.
Biden receives 39 percent of the vote, Trump gets 36 percent and Kennedy garners 22 percent.
When academic Cornel West, a progressive who had been politically aligned with Sen. Bernie Sanders, is added to the ballot, Biden goes back to having a one-point advantage – a statistical tie with Trump – with the president receiving 36 percent support, Trump with 35 percent, Kennedy with 19 percent and West gobbling up 6 points.
On its face, McLaughlin & Associates’ October survey also bears this out.
A Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Tour bus is spotted outside a campaign event in Miami, Florida.
When Trump and Biden are alone on the ballot, 48 percent of likely voters said they’d vote Trump, while 43 percent said Biden, in the McLaughlin survey, which was released Thursday.
But Trump’s five-point advantage over Biden dwindles to two points when Kennedy is added to the equation – with 39 percent saying they’d pick Trump, 37 percent supporting Biden and Kennedy receiving the support of 14 percent.
That would suggest he’s pulling more votes from Trump.
But pollster John McLaughlin told .com that on closer inspection, 42 percent of Kennedy’s vote comes from Biden, while 39 percent comes from the Republican ex-president.
‘For now Kennedy potentially creates more of an temporary undecided factor,’ McLaughlin said, explaining why it appears that Kennedy shrinks Trump’s lead.
‘However, President Trump beats Joe Biden whether it’s one on one, or a multi-candidate race. President Trump has the strongest and most intense voter base of support,’ McLaughlin added.
When West appears on the ballot, Trump’s lead extends back to three points, suggesting that West is pulling some support from Biden’s left.
In that scenario, Trump receives 38 percent, Biden gets 35 percent, Kennedy takes 12 percent and West receives just 2 percent of support from likely voters.
When West is factored in, Kennedy’s vote is still coming 42 percent from Biden and 39 percent from Trump, while West’s vote is comprised of 51 percent of voters who would otherwise support Biden and 36 percent who would otherwise select Trump.
McLaughlin also warned that Republicans are underrepresented in the Quinnipiac survey, with the totals not matching what exit polls said the electorate looked like in 2020.
And while national polls are helpful to detect the temperature of the public, it’s swing state polls that are better measures to predict a presidential election’s outcome.
Two surveys conducted around the time Kennedy announced his independent bid showed him tying the race between Trump and Biden
Two earlier polls, one conducted by Zogby and one by Fox News, showed Kennedy’s entrance into the race tying Trump and Biden.
Various scenarios are being surveyed because it’s unclear if Kennedy and West’s names will be able to get on every state’s general election ballot.
West had initially said he would run as the Green Party’s candidate, making ballot access less challenging, but announced last month he would run simply as an independent.
Kennedy is running as an independent, too, but has had conversations with the Libertarian Party, which also has a secured spot on states’ ballots.
Libertarian Party members hold a convention in May that will determine their presidential nominee for 2024.