‘We only need a couple more letters and the PM will be gone.’ Those were the words of former Cabinet Minister Simon Clarke in recent days as he urged disenchanted Tory MPs to submit letters of no confidence in the Prime Minister – with the aim of triggering yet another internecine party leadership contest.
When Rishi Sunak fired the starting gun on the Conservatives’ local elections campaign last week, many in his fractured party were wishing him to metaphorically point the weapon at his own head to spare them the effort.
As ever, only Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the party’s backbench 1922 Committee, knows whether the 53 letters required to trigger a contest is close to being reached.
But what is not in doubt is the intensity of the forces ranged against Sunak – with Boris Johnson’s former adviser Dominic Cummings reputed to be in the vanguard of the attack.
As Mr Sunak’s small band of allies scan the battlefield, they see, on one flank, Cummings and the mysterious Tory fixer Dougie Smith, backed by the so-called ‘pasta plotters’ who were part of former home secretary Suella Braverman’s camp.
On another flank they see multiple groupings of MPs terrified about losing their seats, and are writing letters in the desperate hope that a change of leadership – any change – will produce enough of a poll bounce to save them.
And stampeding through the middle are the candidates for Reform, the successor to Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party, which is now just a few percentage points away from overtaking the Tories in the polls, and consigning the Conservatives to electoral oblivion.
Amid this chaos, a number of senior Tory figures are said to be on manoeuvres – something which sometimes comes as news to them. Last weekend, it was Commons Leader Penny Mordaunt, a One Nation Tory who says she was surprised to read that she was being lined as a ‘unity candidate’, which turbo-charged talk about deposing Sunak among moderate Tories. A One Nation MP said: ‘Those conversations were ongoing but accelerated after the Penny story broke.’
Then, a few days later, Security Minister Tom Tugendhat – another One Nation former leadership contender – was also proposed as a ‘unity candidate’. A Tory source said: ‘Tom doesn’t want it. It was put about by Dougie [Smith] to distract attention from his preferred candidate, Kemi Badenoch.’
Ms Badenoch, the Business Secretary, has denied plotting for the leadership, but her credentials have long been championed by Smith and his ally Michael Gove.
Dominic Cummings reputed to be in the vanguard of the attack on Rishi Sunak
Last weekend, it was Commons Leader Penny Mordaunt, a One Nation Tory who says she was surprised to read that she was being lined as a ‘unity candidate’
Senior Conservative sources believe that Dominic Cummings is also pulling many of these strings as part of a plan to destroy, and then rebuild, the party – something which was first highlighted last year by former Culture Secretary Nadine Dorries in her book The Plot. They point to a recent blog in which Cummings, amid the usual look-at-me pseudo-intellectualism, urged: ‘Plough the old Tory Party into the earth with salt.’
He wrote: ‘Some people are worried about Starmer having a Blair-like majority. I’m much more worried by the continuation of what I’ve witnessed for 20 years and happy to gamble on Starmer having a Blair-like majority if it means the replacement of the perpetual rotten Tory horror show.’
Tory MPs are divided between those who think that Sunak should, in the words of one, ‘die with dignity’ by leading the party to inevitable defeat soon, and those who, assuming that the PM will hold on until October, argue that there is time for one last spin of the leadership wheel.
As one in the former camp put it: ‘It’s no point changing the captain of the Titanic when the ship is already sinking. The time to switch was before we hit the iceberg.’
Some believe that Sunak might do exactly that in the wake of inevitably poor local election results on May 2, by calling an election for June. ‘He is exhausted and just wants it done,’ said one.
Those who think there is one last chance have devised a ‘Battle Bus Test’ to determine who they would most want to come out and campaign for them in their constituencies. One MP said: ‘It’s about who can energise the base and excite your voters. For most MPs – it’s not Rishi. Boris Johnson is the ultimate battle bus campaigner but he isn’t available.’
Topping the list are Ms Mordaunt, Home Secretary James Cleverly, Dame Priti Patel and Ms Badenoch.
Kemi Badenoch has denied plotting for the leadership
Ms Mordaunt would be welcomed by voters in many constituencies as ‘passionate and energetic’, MPs said, while Cleverly is seen as ‘genial’. Patel and Badenoch are regarded as the most likely to ‘energise the party faithful’, with Patel increasingly emerging as a ‘credible dark horse’ candidate. ‘She is not as divisive as Suella. She is also much nicer to colleagues than Suella or Kemi, not as standoffish,’ one MP said.
Foreign Secretary David Cameron tops the list for MPs in Lib Dem-facing seats, while former Immigration Minister Robert Jenrick, also touted as a potential contender, is seen as an ‘untried quantity’.
One former Minister said he thinks a new leader – whoever they are – will give ‘at least’ a five-point bounce in the polls. ‘With a bit of work, they could halve Labour’s lead,’ they said. ‘Ultimately, the Tory Party doesn’t like people who are losers. MPs are increasingly waking up to this.’
One insider, referring to the appeal of Johnson and Cameron, said: ‘Rishi is surrounded by proven election-winners, but he isn’t one. He is a technocrat, he is not political.’
Government sources have warned plotters that if MPs tried to move against him, Sunak would just call an early election. Insiders believe that a recent private meeting between Sunak and Sir Graham Brady centred on just that – with the latter warning Sunak not to do that. The PM ruled out a May election days later.
Last night, asked if it was true that he had told plotters that Sunak was on the brink of being forced into a leadership contest, Mr Clarke said: ‘If that is the case, it’s because other MPs agree with me and have acted. Ultimately that is every colleague’s right.’
A friend of Clarke’s said: ‘May 2 is by some distance the most likely flashpoint. Every Conservative MP is talking about the situation.’
When asked to comment, Mr Cummings responded with a ‘bullseye’ emoji.