It’s now just 21 days until American voters see the first tangible results of the grueling 2024 presidential race.
Republican candidates will head to Iowa for their last campaign push to try and catch up to Donald Trump, who still has a commanding lead in the polls.
In three weeks, polls will become a memory when a winner will be declared in the crucial caucuses. So, is anyone primed for an upset or does frontrunner Trump have the first primary contest in the bag?
Nikki Haley has seen a surge in recent weeks, with a recent New Hampshire poll showing her just four points behind the ex-president, while Ron DeSantis has visited all 99 counties to get caucus-goers on his side.
With just 21 days until the Iowa caucuses, candidates are focusing all efforts on the Hawkeye state. Former President Donald Trump, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley, biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie remain among the top of the field
Biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie remain in the primary running with a mountain to climb to reach the leading pack.
While former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson and pastor and businessman Ryan Binkley are technically in the race, they do not have significant enough polling or donors to be considered serious contenders.
Iowa will kick-off the primary contest with their caucuses on January 15 and New Hampshire follows with their election on January 23.
DailyMail.com breaks down what has happened leading up to this point and what to watch in the final 21 days until the Iowa caucus.
CANDIDATES PRE-CAUCUS ACTIVITIES IN IOWA
Iowa is historically the main focus for candidates running in presidential primaries because the midwest state holds the first contest of the election cycle with their caucuses.
While Democrats have moved this year to change that, Republicans are maintaining tradition.
The only candidate who appears not to care about Iowa is Gov. Christie, who has not stepped foot in the state since entering the race – instead focusing all his efforts on a state he thinks he can make strides: New Hampshire.
Besides Trump, who is in first place in every state and nation poll, Gov. DeSantis seems the favorite to take second place in Iowa.
Before the holidays, DeSantis completed what is known as the ‘full Grassley,’ named after Iowa Sen. Chuck Grassley and referencing the feat of campaigning in all 99 counties in the Hawkeye state.
As of December 15 – two months before the caucuses – DeSantis made over 154 stops across the state.
He has also clinched some of the most important and influential endorsements in the state from beloved Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds and evangelical leader Bob Vander Plaats.
Haley has more support in the second primary contest state of New Hampshire, where her polling is better and where she earned the backing of Gov. Chris Sununu.
Ramaswamy’s campaign made light of DeSantis’ ‘full Grassley,’ noting that the biotech entrepreneur will complete the feat twice over on January 2.
To show Desantis’ all-in strategy for Iowa, more than one-third of his campaign staff moved there in the leadup to the caucuses and they have a presence in nearly all areas of the state.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has put much of his time, energy, focus and money into the Hawkeye State – even earning the endorsement of beloved Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds
A poll earlier this month in Iowa shows Trump with the largest lead ever in polling history this close to the caucuses
POLLING IN IOWA
The former president has maintained his polling lead in Iowa, where his supporters say the state is still ‘Trump country.’
In January 2023, Trump held around 45 percent support in Iowa, according to FiveThirtyEight’s average tracker. At this time, DeSantis was only about 10 points behind with around 35 percent.
DailyMail.com polls in April and August found that Trump’s lead grew, despite his legal issues and constant court appearances.
In August he enjoyed support from 43 percent of voters while DeSantis had 17 percent – a slip of nine points in five months.
Fast Forward to December 2023 and DeSantis is now more than 50 points behind Trump, although still in second place with 12 percent.
Former Vice President Mike Pence was in third place for several months in Iowa, until Haley took that spot after he dropped out in October.
Some November and December polls in Iowa showed Haley and DeSantis tied for second place – or within tiny margins of 1 or 2 percentage points.
J.L. Partners surveyed 600 likely Republican caucus-goers in Iowa from August 1 to 7. The results carry a margin of error of +/- four percent
REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY DEBATES
The Republican National Committee (RNC) held four debates before the holidays – then announced they would not hold any more showdowns, seemingly amid pressure from the Trump campaign.
The first debate in August was held in Milwaukee, Wisconsin with eight candidates, including DeSantis, Haley, Ramaswamy, Christie, Hutchinson and Pence, as well as South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott and North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, who have since dropped out.
The second was in Simi Valley, California in September with all the same candidates except for Hutchinson, who did not qualify and has not since.
Then five candidates met in Miami, Florida to debate in November with the showdown including DeSantis, Haley, Ramaswamy, Christie and Scott.
The fourth and final RNC debate was held in Tuscaloosa, Alabama earlier in December with just DeSantis, Haley, Ramaswamy and Scott.
Following the fourth debate, the RNC announced it would not hold any more primary debate this cycle – despite originally making candidates sign pledges not to participate in any non-RNC sanctioned debates. The pledge also required candidates to say they would back the eventual GOP presidential nominee.
Candidates were told they could break the RNC commitment to participate in other debates.
Trump has refused since the start to participate in any debates, claiming they are beneath him due to his massive polling lead.
The first presidential primary debate in Milwaukee, Wisconsin on August 23 had eight candidates on stage. From left: Former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, former Vice President Mike Pence, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott and North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum
The fourth and latest debate shrunk to half that size with Christie, Haley, DeSantis and Ramaswamy qualifying and participating in Tuscaloosa, Alabama on December 6
Trump has refused to show up to any of the four Republican presidential primary debates so far – saying that with his massive lead, he doesn’t need to participate with the B team
WHAT IS THE IOWA CAUCUS?
Unlike a primary election, which runs much like a general election, a caucus is more like a town meeting where citizens gather together in a room to decide who will be the state’s nominee.
The other states besides Iowa that hold primary caucuses are Nevada – also an early contest state – North Dakota and Wyoming.
Republican citizens will come together on Monday, January 15 at 7:00 p.m. in each of Iowa’s approximately 1,700 precincts, which include schools, churches, union halls and other local gathering places.
Representatives for each of the candidates will make speeches on behalf of those they favor to try and convince others to caucus for them.
Votes are then tallied by a secret ballot and delegates are selected to then send the results to the state’s party. Tallies are completed and counted – typically within a few hours.
It’s expected that the winner will be known the night of the caucus.
The caucus process has been criticized for years considering low participation rates and non inclusive processes that make it harder for people who work or have disabilities to caucus because there is no remote option.
Only about 30 percent of Republicans in Iowa caucused during the 2016 race.
HERE’S WHAT TO WATCH BEFORE THE CAUCUS
In the New Year, it’s likely each candidate will turn their complete attention onto Iowa – perhaps with the exception of Christie.
CNN is hosting a debate five days before the caucuses on Wednesday, January 10 in Des Moines, Iowa.
DeSantis and Ramaswamy immediately said they would participate, and while Haley was initially noncommittal about attending, she confirmed December 15 that she would attend.
The last showdown before the Iowa caucuses, however, have strict requirements to make the debate stage and could see a head-to-head match-up between DeSantis and Haley – assuming Trump will still not participate.
The candidates must reach 10 percent support in three national or Iowa polls conducted after October 15 and published by January 2.
No schedules have been announced for after the holidays, but Haley, DeSantis and Ramaswamy are expected to make final swings through Iowa leading up to the first primary contest.
On caucus night, candidates will hold their respective rallies with supporters and media, which will either turn into victory parties or events with concession speeches.
POST-CAUCUS PLANS
Typically, candidates leave Iowa promptly after the caucuses and head to New Hampshire to campaign the entire time until the primary elections there.
There are two debates scheduled in New Hampshire before the primary on January 18, hosted by ABC News, and on January 21, hosted by CNN.
The primary election is held on Tuesday, January 23 and will provide the second tangible results from the 2024 cycle.
While Trump is expected to take Iowa, easily, New Hampshire has become more competitive with Haley coming within only 15 points of the ex-president in a recent poll.