Reform UK could make the difference between a massive Labour majority and a hung Parliament at the general election, new analysis has shown.
According to modelling by the Labour Together think tank, the fortunes of the Nigel Farage-backed party may prove key to how many seats Labour wins.
They warned a ‘few small shifts in voters’ views’ could narrow Sir Keir Starmer’s chances of seizing full control of the House of Commons.
And a collapse in support for Reform ‘could change the picture entirely’, the Labour-backing think tank warned, adding: ‘There is no room for complacency.’
They set out three possible outcomes of the general election, which ranged from a huge 192-seat Labour majority to Sir Keir being left 14 seats short of outright power.
Sir Keir Starmer has been warned a ‘few small shifts in voters’ views’ could narrow Labour’s chances of seizing full control of the House of Commons
Labour Together pointed to how their latest opinion poll, conducted by YouGov, gave Labour a 20-point lead over the Tories. This would hand Sir Keir a 192-seat majority
But, in the think tank’s ‘realistic projection’ of Labour’s performance at the general election, the party would win 364 seats with a Commons majority of 78
Labour Together also modelled what might happen if Reform’s vote collapsed. This resulted in a hung Parliament, with Labour as the largest party with 312 seats but 14 short of a majority
Reform, founded by ex-UKIP leader Nigel Farage, have polled around 10 per cent in recent weeks and performed well in last week’s by-elections in Wellingborough and Kingswood
READ MORE: Reform UK surge to their best ever by-election result – but how much of a threat do they pose at the general election? Will Nigel Farage return as leader?
Labour Together pointed to how their latest opinion poll, conducted by YouGov earlier this month, gave Labour a 20-point lead over the Tories.
If there were a general election tomorrow, this would see a huge 192-seat majority win for Sir Keir to compare with the party’s landslide victory under Sir Tony Blair in 1997.
But Labour Together said this was an ‘unlikely’ outcome as they highlighted the share of voters (17 per cent) who are currently undecided.
‘In most elections, these voters return to the party they voted for the last time around,’ the think tank said.
Reform have polled around 10 per cent in recent weeks and performed well in last week’s by-elections in Wellingborough and Kingswood.
But Labour Together said the strength of support for the party – which was founded by Mr Farage – ‘feels questionable given past experience of upstart parties (like UKIP) who have underperformed their poll position at the ballot box’.
They also suggested the support of some of those voters who have switched to Labour from the Tories could yet be ‘soft-switchers’.
In what it termed a ‘realistic projection’ of Labour’s performance at the general election, Labour Together modelled what might happen if many ‘don’t knows’ returned to the party they supported last time around.
They also analysed what might happen if those whose support for either Labour or Reform is close to their level of support for the Tories – known as ‘wavering switchers’ – went back to the Conservatives.
The think tank found, in this scenario, Labour’s lead over the Tories would be reduced to 13 points, which would give Labour 364 seats at a general election, with a Commons majority of 78.
In a second possible scenario, Labour Together explored what would happen if Reform’s vote collapsed before a general election.
This could be ‘either because Rishi Sunak delivers on his promises on immigration, because Reform’s own fortunes fall dramatically, or perhaps they choose not to stand against the Conservatives (as their predecessor, the Brexit Party, did in 2019),’ they suggested.
Labour Together found such a scenario would result in a ‘dramatic narrowing of the vote’ with Labour’s lead over the Tories cut to four points (40 per cent to 36 per cent).
This would see Britain plunged into a hung Parliament, with Labour as the largest party with 312 seats but 14 seats short of a majority.
‘While this is not a likely scenario, it shows the importance of Reform’s vote, and the cost to Labour of a Reform collapse,’ the think tank said.
‘While the data still all points to a Labour victory, we also set out the case for caution. A few small shifts in voter behaviour could shrink Labour’s lead significantly.
‘A more dramatic change, such as the collapse of Reform, could wipe out the prospect of a majority entirely.
‘However wide the poll leads might look today, a Labour majority is far from certain.’
Josh Williams, Labour Together’s director of strategy, said: ‘There is a long way to go between now and the election and, as the old saying goes, there can be many a slip between cup and lip.
‘Labour’s lead is undoubtedly wide, a tribute to the extraordinary transformation in the party’s fortunes under Keir Starmer.
‘But, a few small shifts in voters’ views and a would-be majority narrows.
‘A collapse in the resurgent Reform party, just like UKIP and the Brexit Party before them, could change the picture entirely. There is no room for complacency.’