Reform UK have overtaken the Tories in an opinion poll for the first time – with party leader Nigel Farage hailing an ‘inflection point’ in British politics.
A YouGov survey for The Times put Reform up two points to 19 per cent, with the Tories unchanged on 18 per cent.
The symbolic moment of Reform moving ahead of the Conservatives is another shattering blow to PM Rishi Sunak with just three weeks until the general election.
The poll showed Labour with an 18-point lead, with Sir Keir Starmer’s party backed by 37 per cent of voters.
The Liberal Democrats were four points behind the Tories on 14 per cent.
Commenting on the YouGov result this evening, prior to taking part in an ITV debate, Mr Farage said: ‘This is the inflection point – the only wasted vote now is a Conservative vote.
‘We are the challengers to Labour, we’re on our way.’
The Reform leader is currently on stage facing off against political figures from six other parties – including Tory Penny Mordaunt and Labour’s Angela Rayner – in the latest round of TV debates.
Mr Farage couldn’t contain his glee at the start of the programme as he told viewers his party was now the opposition to Labour.
‘I am Nigel Farage, leader of Reform UK. Just before we came on air we overtook the Conservatives in the national opinion polls. We are now the opposition to Labour,’ he said.
The YouGov poll was carried out among 2,211 voters in Britain yesterday and today, with Mr Sunak having launched the Tories’ manifesto on Tuesday.
Later, during his introduction to the ITV debate, Mr Farage said: ‘I am Nigel Farage, leader of Reform UK.
‘Just before we came on air we overtook the Conservatives in the national opinion polls. We are now the opposition to Labour.’
Earlier, a separate poll showed the Tories have sunk to their lowest-ever level of support.
The latest Redfield & Wilton Strategies survey found the Conservatives on just 18 per cent support, which is their lowest-ever vote share recorded by the polling firm.
It is one point worse than the Tories’ lowest level of support under former prime minister Liz Truss, who was replaced by Mr Sunak in October 2022.
In the latest poll, conducted yesterday and today, Labour were found to hold a 24-point lead over the Conservatives, with Sir Keir’s party backed by 42 per cent of voters.
Reform UK were on 17 per cent, just one point behind the Tories, while the Liberal Democrats enjoyed a 13 per cent vote share.
This was the highest level of support for Sir Ed Davey’s party this year.
The YouGov poll came at the end of a day when Labour and Plaid Cymru launched their election manifestos.
At his launch in Manchester, Sir Keir said Labour had a plan to turn the country around after 14 years of Tory ‘chaos’ but cautioned that there would be ‘no quick fix’ if he is handed the keys to No 10 by voters on July 4.
Launching a manifesto which contained no new policy announcements, Sir Keir denied he was being overly cautious in his efforts to put his party back in power for the first time since 2010.
Repeatedly stressing how he had changed Labour since taking over from Jeremy Corbyn, Sir Keir said he was now offering a ‘serious plan for the future of our country’.
It is another body blow for the PM after last night’s battering during a Sky News special programme in which a snap poll found Sir Keir came out on top in the crucial TV election grilling.
Viewers thought the Labour leader performed better by 64 per cent to 36 per cent, according to YouGov.
The grim result leaves Mr Sunak facing a desperate three-week struggle to avoid electoral oblivion and humiliation at the hands of Mr Farage, after hopes that the programme could be a turning point were dashed.
The premier repeatedly faced mocking laughter from the audience in Grimsby as he was hammered over leaving D-Day commemorations in Normandy early last week, repeating his grovelling apology.
And he was left pleading that he ‘appreciated people’s frustrations’ the government had not ‘got everything right’ in critical areas such as immigration.
While he was ridiculed for saying his ‘appalling diet’ of scoffing large amounts of Haribo and Twixes would make voters like him again.
On the stage beforehand, Sir Keir did not get an easy ride – squirming as he was challenged on why he now condemns Jeremy Corbyn after arguing he would make a ‘great PM’ five years ago.
Sir Keir wriggled as he was asked on Sky News how people could ‘trust’ him, arguing that he only endorsed Mr Corbyn because he was ‘certain that we would lose’.
He also floundered as he was pushed by presenter Beth Rigby on whether he would rule out all tax rises – sticking to his line that income tax, national insurance and VAT would not be touched. He would not completely deny that council tax or fuel duty could increase.
But Sir Keir was received far more warmly by the crowd, and rammed home attacks on the Tories’ 14 years in government.
The poll suggested Mr Sunak even scored lower than Sir Keir on tax – the issue the Conservatives have been targeting as a chink in Labour’s armour.
Sir Keir’s performance was also preferred by every age group – three-quarters of 18-24 year olds, 66 per cent of 25-49s, 59 per cent of those aged 50-64 and 47 per cent of 65-plus Brits.
Mr Sunak arrived at the G7 summit in Italy today, where he will seek to underline his credentials as a statesman.
During the ITV debate tonight, Mr Farage piled pressure on the Tories and Labour as he backed the lifting of the two-child benefit cap.
He said that ‘we should encourage people to have children’, while he also backed greater tax relief for married couples.
And he warned again the NHS ‘isn’t working’ and suggested Britain copy France’s health system.
‘We need to look at countries like France, who spend exactly the same sum of money, but get far better services, by people paying into an insurance fund,’ he said.
‘Those that can’t pay don’t. They get better results. Let’s think more broadly.’
Mr Farage, in part, blamed the UK’s ‘exploding population’ for pressures on the NHS.
Meanwhile, Tory minister Ms Mordaunt pointed to a £38.5billion ‘black hole’ in Labour’s general election manifesto.
The House of Commons Leader tackled Ms Rayner over tax as she warned the party have only declared a quarter of the taxes they will have to put up.
But Ms Rayner shot back at Tory plans for a £17billion package of tax cuts.
‘We can’t afford five more years of the Tories,’ the Labour deputy leader said.
‘You’re promising tax cuts when you’ve already tried it once and crashed the economy.’
Also appearing were the Liberal Democrat’s Daisy Cooper, SNP’s Stephen Flynn, Green Party’s Carla Denyer, and Plaid Cymru’s Rhun ap Iorwerth.
Mr Farage – who was judged to have won last week’s BBC debate by viewers – risked a sexism row when he suggested the heated exchanges between the Ms Mordaunt and Ms Rayner represented a ‘catfight’.
Speaking ahead of tonight’s debate, Pat McFadden, Labour’s national campaign coordinator, said: ‘Today we launched our manifesto with a stronger economy and more wealth creation throughout the country at its heart.
‘It is practical and costed plan for change which will make a real and positive difference to people’s lives and a big contrast to the latest recipe for more chaos published by the Tories on Tuesday.
‘In tonight’s debate, Angela Rayner will make Labour’s case for change and reach out to the public to turn the page on the Tory years.’
But like the PM, Ms Morduant face mockery from the audience when she described Britain’s education system as ‘world class’.
Host Julie Etchingham said ITV had received messages from hundreds of teachers saying schools are in crisis while one 12-year-old had written in about his crumbling school building.
‘Be honest, do you think our education system is still world class?’ the host asked.
Conservative Ms Mordaunt said: ‘I think it is world class and we have improved.’
To laughter, she added: ‘Well, when we took office literacy rates were trailing the world, now they are leading them.
‘We have 90 per cent of our schools are good or outstanding and we have undertaken an enormous refurbishment programme.’