Russia is trying to destabilise Europe and influence its elections by driving migrants into the continent using private armies, it has been claimed.
Vladimir Putin already wields influence over a number of the main routes used to reach the continent, and it is now feared that Russia will ‘intensify’ its efforts to move migrants towards Europe with the arrival of spring.
Using paramilitary forces and private mercenaries, including the notorious Wagner group, it is believed Russia will stoke violence in already volatile nations such as Burkina Faso, Mali, Sudan, Central African Republic and Libya – forcing people to flee their homes and thus driving refugees towards Europe.
The Kremlin has already been accused of trying to create a refugee crisis by sending asylum seekers to its border with Finland, forcing the new NATO member to close its doors to migrants in a bid to stem the tide.
And since 2021, Belarus – Russia’s closest ally – has been accused of funnelling immigrants from the Middle East and North Africa – who have travelled up through Russia – to its borders with Poland, Lithuania and Latvia.
A group of asylum seekers arrive at the border in Salla, northern Finland, in November 2023, amid a migrant crisis driven by Russia
Migrants from Syria and Bangladesh are rescued in a boat off the coast of Libya in January this year
The Telegraph now reports that is has seen intelligence documents detailing Russian plans for agents to set up a ‘15,000-man strong border police force’ made up of former militias in Libya to funnel migrants towards Europe.
The plans fell through as payments made via the ‘Russian-Libyan cultural institute’ in Moscow never happened, although it is believed to be a taste of what could happen.
This has come with warnings that Putin is attempting influence the politics of countries in the West, using some African countries as staging grounds for migrants.
EU’s border police force has said Russia is using migration ‘as a lever in a larger game of influence and pressure’ on its adversaries in the Wast.
This would be of great benefit to Putin and Russia as it continues to wage war in Ukraine, which is currently being supported by its allies in Europe and the US.
However, with EU elections in June, the European parliament is predicted to tilt towards the right, with migration already proving to be a key issue for voters.
This in turn is expected to see an increase in MEPs who are less sympathetic towards Ukraine’s plight – and more sympathetic to Putin – to take up seats in the European Parliament, thus reducing the support for Kyiv in its defence against Russia.
It is predicted that if Russia were to get its way, many migrants would try to cross the Mediterranean Sea by boat into southern Europe, before being helped by people smugglers into other countries.
Russia already has thousands of mercenaries fighting in the ongoing Libyan civil war and there are claims that they are heavily involved with smuggling gangs.
A security source told the publication: ‘If you can control the migrant routes into Europe then you can effectively control elections, because you can restrict or flood a certain area with migrants in order to influence public opinion at a crucial time.’
There are concerns that migrants who have crossed into Europe over the winter at the behest of Putin could try and traverse the English Channel in the summer when the conditions are more favourable.
Frontex, the EU’s border police agency, said that there were 380,000 irregular border crossings in 2023, the highest amount since 2016. Of these, more than 62,000 attempted to enter Britain, it added.
Vladimir Putin has been accused of stoking the migrant crisis to influence politics in Europe. Pictured: Putin giving his annual state of the nation address in Moscow on Thursday
Migrants gather in a tent to get hot drinks near the border with Finland at the Salla checkpoint in November last year
It has previously warned that ‘the likelihood of the instrumentalisation of migrants by Russia and Belarus has increased’.
Last year Finland was forced to close its doors to asylum seekers at four crossings after arguing that Putin was deliberately sending them across the border in retaliation for it joining NATO.
Prime Minister Petteri Orpo said it was ‘clear that these people are helped and they are also being escorted or transported to the border by border guards’, although Russia dismissed the claims.
Many of the migrants who arrived at the Finnish border did so without proper papers or identification, and many had originated from Africa and the Middle East.
One senior academic claimed Russia’s involvement in Africa could cause further waves of migration.
Dr Sergey Sukhankin, a senior fellow at The Jamestown Foundation and an adviser at Gulf State Analytics in Washington, told the Telegraph: ‘The various waves of illegal migrants from Africa might increase, because Russia is planning to create a new military facility in the Central African Republic.’
Central African Republic is a key part of some of the most-used migrant routes, with asylum seekers from places such as the Democratic Republic of the Congo moving through on their way north to Sudan and Libya.
2021: Polish police fire a water cannon at migrants camped at the Belarusian-Polish border at Bruzgi. Belarus – Russia’s closes ally – pushed migrants from the Middle East and North Africa towards its borders with Poland, Latvia and Lithuania in 2021
Polish soldiers are seen building a fence on the border between Poland and Belarus near the village of Nomiki, Poland August 26, 2021
This image made from video provided by Polish Defense Ministry shows an aerial view of migrants and security personnel gathered at the border Kuznica, Poland, November 8, 2021
A spokesperson for Frontex told the Telegraph: ‘These developments illustrate broader strategies that seem to be employed by state actors like Russia and Belarus, aimed at stress-testing the resilience of borders shared with EU and Schengen countries.
‘This is not just a matter of border security but also of geopolitical tension, where migration is used as a lever in a larger game of influence and pressure. It is disturbing to see the desperation of people seeking to come to the EU used ruthlessly as pawns in a geopolitical game.
‘While these incidents in Finland are currently at a relatively contained scale, they signal a potential risk that could intensify, particularly with the arrival of spring – a period traditionally associated with increased migratory movements.
‘The situation could further escalate if there is active facilitation of crossings by the authorities in question.’