A historian known as the ‘Nostradamus’ of presidential elections has revealed who vice-president Kamala Harris should pick as her running mate.
Allan Lichtman, who has correctly predicted nine out of the 10 last elections, said in a YouTube livestream on Thursday that Harris’ choice was down to two VP candidates -Pennsylvania governor Josh Shapiro and Arizona senator Mark Kelly.
‘I don’t think a VP pick turns the election, but a VP pick is incredibly important,’ said the American University professor. ‘I think all of the names that have been vetted are qualified. In my view, it’s come down to two.’
In an interview with Newsweek, Lichtman added that Shapiro would be a particularly good VP choice given he comes from a state whose 19 electoral votes are up for grabs.
‘Picking someone from a given state is no guarantee you’re going to win that state, but if you want to reach out to any particular state, Pennsylvania is the most important state in this election,’ the historian said.
Allan Lichtman, who has correctly predicted nine out of the 10 last elections, said in a YouTube livestream on Thursday that Harris’ choice was down to two VP candidates
Harris is expected to announce her choice as early as Monday, ahead of her first public appearance with the vice presidential nominee on Tuesday in Philadelphia
No Democrat has won the presidency without winning Pennsylvania since Harry Truman in 1948.
The state has voted Democrat for every election wince 1992 except for 2016, when it went for Donald Trump, who is running again in November for the Republicans.
Harris is expected to announce her choice as early as Monday, ahead of her first public appearance with the vice presidential nominee on Tuesday in Philadelphia.
The short list of candidates reportedly also includes Minnesota governor Tim Walz, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker and Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear.
Last month Lichtman updated his complicated prediction model to reflect President Joe Biden dropping out of the race and Vice President Kamala Harris become the presumptive Democratic nominee.
Lichtman added that Pennsylvania governor Josh Shapiro would be a particularly good VP choice given he comes from a swing state whose 19 electoral votes are up for grabs
Arizona senator Mark Kelly is another top choice for Harris’ VP, the historian said
Based on his model which includes thirteen factors, or ‘keys’ as he calls them, Harris is currently on course for victory with less than 100 days to go before Election Day.
Lichtman’s model measures factors against the party currently in the White House, which at this time is the Democrats.
He said he will make his official prediction for the election next month, but Harris has a majority of his keys leaning in her favor to win.
‘I plan to make my official prediction in August after the Democratic convention,’ Lichtman wrote on X. ‘See my assessment below on the 13 Keys Tracker on where The Keys stand NOW.’
The factors giving Harris the advantage include that she did not face a primary challenger, there has been little threat from third party candidates so far, and the economy is strong in the short and long term.
The short list of candidates reportedly also includes Minnesota governor Tim Walz, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg (pictured)
With the switch to Harris, the White House also hasn’t made a major policy change and the vice president is not facing a scandal or major social unrest.
Lichtman noted that with the transition from Biden to Harris as the presumptive nominee last week, the Democrats have lost one advantage: the incumbency factor.
With Harris and Trump set to face off, the professor views this race is essentially open now.
But he noted Democrats were able to prevent some further fallout with its shakeup with the party overwhelmingly rallying behind Harris rather than kicking off a chaotic open primary or having other presidential hopefuls jumping into the race at this late stage.
‘I have not made a final prediction. I’ve said I will make it after the Democratic convention,’ Lichtman told C-SPAN.
‘But I have said for months, and I continue to say a lot would have to go wrong for Democrats to lose,’ he added. ‘That could happen, but a lot would have to change.’