A historian who has correctly predicted every general election outcome for the past 40 years was asked if the Democrat Party should dump Joe Biden after his horrid debate with Donald Trump Thursday.
Focus much of this weekend post-debate has been on the Biden family, who gathered at Camp David to discuss their patriarch’s political future, while mega-donors and famous supporters plot their own courses of action.
The family has offered its unequivocal support to the president and even wondered how they can get further involved, with troubled son Hunter insisting his father fight back into the race.
However, many have started to play the blame game, citing Biden’s advisors’ poor debate prep to face Donald Trump and time is of the essence as Democrats panic at his dive in the polls post-Atlanta.
American University’s Dr. Allan Lichtman, who has yet to make his official prediction about November’s election, is sounding off on whether the Democrats should get Biden off the ticket.
Dr. Lichtman, who previously said Trump‘s 34 felony convictions are likely not to impact the 2024 election, is also against liberals getting rid of the 81-year-old president.
‘It’s a huge mistake,’ he told CNN. ‘They’re not doctors. They don’t know whether Biden is physically capable of carrying out a second term or not.’
The historian relies on a formula he developed with mathematician Vladimir Keilis-Borok by analyzing elections dating back to 1860. He has used it to correctly predict the outcome of nine presidential elections since 1984.
Dr. Lichtman said that so-called experts and pundits were saying the same thing about Ronald Reagan, who ran for a second term at the age of 73.
‘He won 49 states, so this is all foolhardy nonsense,’ he said.
Using 13 questions called ‘keys,’ Lichtman keeps his personal preferences out of his predictions and was one of the few able to correctly predict Trump would prevail in 2016 when polls and political commentators all favored Democrat Hillary Clinton.
‘The same pundits who led us down the primrose path of 2016 are giving the Democrats horrible advice,’ he said.
He said that ‘debate performances can be overcome’ in referring to Biden’s awful showing Thursday and continued to criticize Democrats for abandoning their president.
‘At the first sign of adversity the spineless Democrats want to throw under the bus, their own incumbent president. My goodness,’ he said.
Lichtman’s keys are based on simple true or false questions related to party mandate, contest, incumbency, third party, short-term economy, long-term economy, policy change, social unrest, scandal, foreign/military failure, foreign/military success, incumbent charisma and challenger charisma.
It should be noted that while Lichtman technically was incorrect in 2000, predicting Al Gore would win, though he believes that to be a stolen election and Gore won the popular vote.
Biden’s entire family met at Camp David this weekend to discuss the president’s future after his shockingly bad debate.
Many have seen Biden’s wife, Dr. Jill Biden, as the one person who could sway the president either way.
However, this time, son Hunter – found guilty of three criminal charges in his blockbuster gun and drugs trial on June 11 and someone who has constantly distracted people from his father’s foibles – has been the one to speak up most fervently for his father.
According to a new report, Biden’s eldest living son – who is notorious for his wild exploits with booze, drugs and women in addition to his convictions – is turning into the most adamant member of the Biden family to insist he remain in the race.
The New York Times claims that Hunter – who despite his troubles, has always advised his father – doesn’t want the country to see his father as the ‘stumbling, aging’ man who showed up Thursday’s debate, citing a person familiar with the talks.
Instead, he wants America to see him as he apparently does, ‘scrappy and in command of the facts.’
The rest of the Biden family were more attempting to be supportive and wanted to know what they could do to help if the president kept going.
Ideas suggested including the president’s grandchildren ‘talking with influencers on social media.’
Overall, the entire family gave Biden their ‘unequivocal support,’ according to CNN, citing an adviser.
Meanwhile, Democrat donors, former and current Washington power players and supporters of Biden have seemingly coalesced around three different paths they could take around the remainder of this election season, with the knowledge that there’s only one person who will decide the fate of the campaign.
Many of the president’s richest backers – like some connected to LinkedIn co-founder Reid Hoffman – believe that, while Thursday was a disaster, there’s not much they can do if Biden won’t make the call himself.
There’s a opposing faction – though largely not anyone with direct access or influence over Biden – that say now is the time to encourage him to quit.
A third way is developing among some donors, who are alarmed by Biden’s performance but want to study the backlash to Thursday’s debate further before making any major moves, while still planning ahead.
While the family remains united behind their patriarch, others are wondering about the team that prepared Biden for the debate.
One major player critical of some of Biden’s trusted aides is John Morgan, a top Democratic donor and ally of Biden’s younger brother, Frank.
Morgan called out whom he felt were ‘grifters’ like former White House Chief of Staff Ron Klain, White House senior adviser Anita Dunn and Biden’s personal attorney, Bob Bauer, who is Dunn’s husband.
‘Biden’s advisers failed him,’ he wrote on social media, referring to how Team Biden picked the debate format.
‘Format was a disaster for him and a plus for Trump. He over practiced and was drained… who wouldn’t be,’ he added.
He then specifically called out Dunn and Bauer for leading the president astray.
‘Biden has for too long been fooled by the value of Anita Dunn and her husband. They need to go… TODAY. The grifting is gross. It was political malpractice.’
In an interview with the New York Times asking him for clarification, Morgan did not mince words.
‘It would be like if you took a prizefighter who was going to have a title fight and put him in a sauna for 15 hours then said, ‘Go fight,’ he said.
‘I believe that the debate is solely on Ron Klain, Bob Bauer and Anita Dunn.’
The CNN performance where Biden meandered through answers and lost his train of thought sparked an unprecedented panic in the party.
President Biden has the nomination locked up. The only way for the party to have a different nominee is for him to voluntarily exit the race.
However, it appears the president is fighting an uphill battle after Thursday’s debacle.
A poll released Sunday reveals 72 percent of voters don’t think Biden has the cognitive faculties for another term in office. This is a seven percent increase from the same poll taken earlier in June before the debate.
Former White House physician Rep. Ronny Jackson (R-Texas) has repeatedly brought Biden’s cognitive and physical health into question.
He suggested that debate prep for seven days at Camp David was a way to get the drug cocktail just right before the showdown with Trump.
Doubts increased from before the debate to after the debate over Biden’s mental acuity and cognitive health.
Biden stumbled his way through the debate with Trump on Thursday, often speaking lowly, mumbling or losing his train of thought. When Trump was speaking, the split screen showed the President with his mouth ajar and a blank stare.
The outcome resulted in a chorus of calls for Biden to end his candidacy – even from some of his biggest supporters.
On the other hand, Trump’s debate performance has only increased his party’s support.
Fifty percent of registered voters think the 78-year-old has the cognitive faculties to run for a second term in 2024 – only 27 percent feel the same about Biden.