Labor is in the box seat to form the next federal government, with new polling showing it’s within just one seat of winning a majority as the election campaign gets under way.
The latest YouGov modelling shows Labor set to win 75 seats at the May 3 election, while the Coalition would win just 60 seats.
Parties need 76 seats for a majority, but the modelling has showed a reversal of fortune for Labor, which was trailing in a similar poll released in February.
The YouGov model revealed Labor would lose five seats to the Opposition, but would win two seats back from the Greens and one from the Coalition.
Meanwhile, the Coalition would lose three seats, including the electorates belonging to opposition housing spokesman Michael Sukkar and the party’s immigration spokesman Dan Tehan.
All teal independents would regain their electorates under the modelling.
YouGov’s director of public data Paul Smith said the result was due to a shift back to the government after the Coalition had been leading in the polls.
‘Labor is only one seat short of forming government due to a small but decisive shift away from the Coalition by working voters in key marginal seats driven by dislike of Coalition policies to stop work from home and sacking 40,000 government workers,’ he said.
‘The turnaround is because of a 1.3 per cent swing to Labor which sees the Coalition fall behind in 10 marginal seats that they were projected to win in our previous projection.
‘As the election nears, the data points to a very dynamic campaign.’
Voters will head to the polls on May 3, with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Opposition Leader Peter Dutton looking to claim the underdog card.
The poll comprised interviews with 38,629 people people between February 27 and March 26, with the survey results modelled across all 150 electorates.
The modelling projected Labor could win as few as 69 seats and as many as 80 seats, with 75 being the most likely outcome.
The Coalition’s range was between 55 and 68 seats.
The government is now on course to get 50.2 per cent of the national two-party preferred vote at the election.
Labor is projected to take the seats of Brisbane and Griffith in Queensland from the Greens, following the minor party’s surprise 2022 surge.
It was also expected to take the seat of Deakin in Victoria from the Liberals, the electorate belonging to Mr Sukkar.
The number of independents could also increase in the next parliament, with modelling showing challenger Caz Heise to win the NSW regional seat of Cowper from Nationals MP Pat Conaghan.
Independent and former Triple J host Alex Dyson is also on track to win in the Victorian seat of Wannon against incumbent Dan Tehan.
However, Labor is set to lose the seat of Bennelong, Gilmore, Werriwa and Robertson in NSW, Aston in Victoria and Lyons in Tasmania.