The newest forecast for the 2025 hurricane season has just been released and meteorologists warn that Americans should start preparing for the worst now.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said on Thursday that they are predicting an ‘above average’ season that will likely result in more named storms than there were in 2024, when 18 such storms were tracked.
Overall, NOAA is predicting up to 19 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and five major hurricanes affecting the US this year. The National Hurricane Center noted that approximately 400 people died during 2024’s hurricane season, the deadliest season since 2005.
Ken Graham, the director of NOAA’s National Weather Service, said: ‘We’ve got to convince people of the danger.’
‘Every Category 5 [hurricane] that has ever hit this country was a tropical storm or less three days prior,’ Graham warned.
Graham urged people to begin stocking up on emergency supplies, including gas and other essentials, before long lines form during an actual emergency.
Laura Grimm, the chief of staff for NOAA, noted that the agency’s prediction for 2024 ‘was right on the money.’
When asked about funding cuts to NOAA by the Trump Administration, Graham noted that the National Hurricane Center remains ‘fully staffed’ and the cuts won’t affect their 2025 forecasting.
NOAA is predicting that 3 to 5 major storms could strike the US this summer
Overall, the National Weather Service is predicting that this hurricane season will likely surpass 2024, which saw 18 named storms
‘The number one thing to do before hurricane season is know your threat. If you’re along a river, you know to prepare for flooding,’ Graham said.
‘Know your evacuation plan if you’re on the coast,’ he added.
Grimm recommended that Americans begin preparing for hurricane season now, before major storms start approaching the East Coast.
He added that NOAA’s hurricane tracking system is scheduled to undergo an upgrade this year that will make their forecasts throughout the 2025 season even more precise.
Graham revealed that NOAA’s five-day forecasts are now as accurate as a three-day forecast was in 2005, helping federal officials put out more accurate evacuation warnings in an emergency.
The new warnings come after meteorologists at AccuWeather released their forecast for the 2025 season in March, which included a prediction of six major storms directly hitting the US this summer.
That’s the same number of storms that caused roughly $500 billion in damage in 2024, with Hurricanes Helene and Milton bringing the most destruction.
NOAA is predicting up to 19 named storms, up to 10 hurricanes, and up to 5 major hurricanes affecting the US this year
The ominous forecast is being fueled by meteorologists predicting an absence of El Niño this hurricane season.
El Niño is a weather phenomenon that can last for eight to 12 months and brings unusually warm sea-surface temperatures to the eastern half of the Pacific – but it also creates a weakened storm system in the Atlantic.
With El Niño likely out of the picture, meteorologists are projecting that this year’s El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is leaning towards staying neutral or shifting to La Niña later in 2025.
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ENSO is a short-term change in climate determined by the warming or cooling of the Pacific Ocean’s waters along the equator.
Right now, the forecast is for these waters to stay relatively normal throughout hurricane season, with a chance that they could turn colder in late summer or fall – the La Niña phenomenon.
In either of these cases, forecasters believe the results will likely produce a stronger hurricane season for the Atlantic – meaning the threat of more storms slamming into the US East Coast.
While hurricane season officially begins June 1, meteorologists noted that the sea-surface temperatures in the Atlantic basin are currently far warmer than normal.
This includes the waters in the Caribbean and the Gulf of America (formerly the Gulf of Mexico).
In March, AccuWeather predicted a strong chance this will remain the same into the summer, meaning that storms are able to intensify faster, especially when they reach the Caribbean.
The combination of these warmer waters in the Atlantic basin and colder La Niña conditions in the Pacific could lead to 2025’s hurricane season actually starting in May, not June, meaning that extreme weather events may be only days away.