The Tories will gather in Birmingham today, for their first conference since July’s General Election disaster, in a much more cheerful mood than anyone could have expected.
Labour’s approval ratings have plunged, following the grasping hypocrisy of ‘freebiegate’ and a string of unpopular decisions – from scrapping the winter fuel allowance for most pensioners to the early release of criminals. It’s a grim start for a Government which, at least in terms of popularity, was never on a very firm footing to begin with.
Its huge majority is built on the lowest vote share ever achieved by a winning party.
In the survey I conducted last month, we offered people a wide range of possible explanations for the result and asked which they found most convincing. It turned out that enthusiasm for Starmer and Labour were bottom of the list.
I also found that people were willing to give the new regime only a limited time to prove itself before deciding whether or not it is doing a good job – and it hasn’t exactly been a stellar start.
Many Conservatives will find this very encouraging. But they shouldn’t – for two big reasons.
First, as the next Tory leader will soon discover, it is extremely hard to get attention for anything you say or do in opposition. People have heard quite enough of the Tories for the time being, and the party won’t be able to get many to look at it again until they are ready.
That could be sooner than anyone could have thought. The scale of their defeat, emerging in the early hours of July 5, had suggested Labour could stay in power for two terms, at least. But after the start they’ve had, that seems less likely.
So when voters do look, the Tories will have to be ready too. This means that time is short.
However unpopular Labour have become after four or five years of Starmerite gloom, the Conservatives will benefit only if they have completely transformed their reputation.
The second reason is that Labour’s tribulations could distract the Tories from the soul searching needed before such a transformation can take place. Some of them might even believe the voters will decide they have made a terrible mistake.
That is never going to happen – whatever this Government brings, the country is not going to regret kicking out the Tories.
Before they face the voters again, the Conservatives will need to understand and accept why they were not just beaten, but trounced.
One of the reasons the party took so long to recover after the 1997 Blair landslide was that this process took years. Now, with an insurgent Reform UK poised to extend its reach into what the Tories consider their territory, they do not have the luxury of time.
My research should help clarify why they lost not just the election but the reputation for competent government that was once the basis for their appeal. Many will think the answers are so obvious as to be barely worth writing down. But it is human nature, not least among politicians, to learn only the lessons that suit you.
Some claimed the Tories drifted too far to the Right, others that they were not conservative enough. But among voters who abandoned the Tories in 2024, the more common criticism of the political direction was that they didn’t have one.
After so many years in power, winning again and holding together its extraordinary 2019 coalition – lifelong Labour voters, liberal remainers and Farage-supporting Brexiteers – was always going to be a tall order for the party. But the Tories didn’t so much play a difficult hand badly as drop all their cards on the floor.
In our research, Tory ‘defectors’ complained at length about broken promises, the cost of living, failure to control immigration, the state of public services and much, much more. But just as damaging was what they came to see as the character of the Government itself.
In their eyes, Partygate was not a one-off but the beginning of a pattern of behaviour that continued right up to the campaign and the election-date betting scandal.
The succession of short-lived prime ministers and endless infighting were the antithesis of the stability that people looked to the Conservatives to uphold. To despairing voters, senior Tories seemed to be playing out a soap opera for their own amusement, rather than tackling the country’s mounting problems. The resulting loss of trust was, in fact, the single biggest reason voters gave for the party’s downfall.
There is plenty of discussion in the Tory party about how to rebuild, and especially on how to ‘unite the Right’. True, it will be hard for the Tories to win a majority if Reform continues to entice their former supporters, but it is important not to misunderstand that task.
As in 2015 and 2019, the Conservatives win majorities when they attract previous Labour and Lib Dem voters and others who have never considered themselves part of the Right.
We found switchers to Labour frustrated about the failure to tackle small-boat crossings, while just as many of those going to Reform were exasperated at NHS waiting times.
Whichever direction they had scattered, former Tories told us that at its best the party stood for stable government and common sense, and were there for people who work and save and try to do the right thing. This is what has been lost – barely one in ten defectors said they thought the party was on the side of people like them.
The next leader will have to rediscover that formula. They will have the even harder task of winning back trust from voters who are not just disappointed but angry. Their first step is to understand exactly why that is how they feel.
Lord Ashcroft is an author, businessman, philanthropist and pollster.
Losing It: The Conservative Party And The 2024 General Election, priced £10, is available from Biteback Publishing.
His research is available at lordashcroft.com.