Vladimir Putin will ignore any peace deal unless it is backed up by significant military force, Sir Keir Starmer warned last night.
The Prime Minister was speaking after joining talks to decide the make-up of a UK-led reassurance force that will deploy to Ukraine after a ceasefire.
Britain and France are expected to provide the bulk of a 20,000-strong force that would protect the country’s major cities and infrastructure.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian troops and a vast force of drones would be used to defend the 600-mile frontline from any Russian attacks.
Sir Keir said: ‘What’s happening here is turning political intention into reality, the concept into plans.
‘It is vitally important we do that work because we know one thing for certain, which is a deal without anything behind it is something that Putin will breach.
‘We know that because it happened before. I’m absolutely clear in my mind it will happen again.’
The PM, on a visit to the UK’s Permanent Joint Headquarters at Northwood in north-west London, was referring to agreements between Russia and Ukraine following the Kremlin’s invasion of Crimea in 2014 and in 2019.
On both occasions, Moscow signed up to full and comprehensive ceasefires – known as the Minsk agreements – covering Ukrainian troops and Russian-backed separatists in Ukraine’s eastern provinces.
Neither agreement included any detrimental consequences for Russia should its supporters continue fighting and, in effect, the 2019 arrangement could be seen as setting conditions for Putin’s invasion of Ukraine three years later.
Sir Keir continued: ‘We hope there will be a deal but what I do know is if there is a deal, the time for planning is now. It’s not after a deal is reached.
‘Last weekend and two weekends before that, we had groupings of international political leaders coming together to provide the political alignment and the collective agreement that we need to work together to ensure that any deal that is put in place is defended.’
He added that he was aware the deal may be ‘in stages’ with a temporary ceasefire eventually followed by a permanent ceasefire.
Military planners have been told to prepare for troops to deploy within days of a settled truce rather than weeks, so the momentum towards a lasting peace can be maintained.
British Army units are expected to be sent to central and eastern Ukraine while a Royal Navy force will patrol the Black Sea.
The Royal Air Force will likely deploy to neighbouring countries such as Romania to take part in aerial protection over Ukraine.
Sir Keir said the plans under discussion were focusing on ‘keeping the skies safe, the seas safe and the borders safe and secure in Ukraine and working with Ukrainians’.
Meanwhile, Foreign Secretary David Lammy urged Putin to agree an unconditional ceasefire just like Ukraine.
He also insisted Russia should not be given a ‘veto’ over the presence of European peacekeepers.
Mr Lammy said: ‘That’s the plan on the table, let’s get on with it. What are we waiting for? What we certainly can’t do is give Putin a veto over the security architecture that will govern the peace.’
While the US has talked up the chances of securing peace within weeks, Volodymyr Zelensky said it could be achieved ‘this year’.
The Ukrainian president attended a European Union summit in Norway where he urged leaders to continue sanctions against Russia at least until a ceasefire is agreed.
He also requested £4.2billion in funding to pay for ammunition and artillery. Mr Zelensky has ruled out any Ukrainian cities close to the frontline being divided in the style of Berlin at the end of the Second World War.
However, Russia continued its bombardment of Ukraine yesterday, launching nearly 200 Iranian Shahed drones.
A separate attack on the Kirovohrad region left ten people wounded, including four children. The UK’s Ministry of Defence estimates 200,000 to 250,000 Russian troops have been killed since the war began in February 2022.
That is the largest death toll of Kremlin forces since Germany’s invasion of Russia in 1941.
The MoD added: ‘President Putin and the Russian military leadership highly likely prioritise their conflict objectives over the lives of Russian soldiers.’
The UK research also showed Russia has incurred an estimated 900,000 casualties, most recruited from impoverished regions and ethnic minorities.
Buy British, MoD told as we’re cut out of EU plans
Keir Starmer has ordered defence chiefs to ‘buy British’ after UK arms firms were locked out of a massive EU procurement drive.
The Prime Minister said he wanted rising Government spending on the military to translate directly into orders and jobs for the British defence industry.
Speaking as he prepared to launch construction work on the next generation of nuclear submarines at Barrow in Cumbria, the PM said: ‘We want to buy British so that this is felt in jobs across the country.
‘As we ramp up defence spending I want to ensure that is in British jobs, with British skills, British small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and our communities.’
Sir Keir has committed to raise spending at the Ministry of Defence from 2.3 per cent of GDP to 2.5 per cent by 2027 – a real terms increase of £6billion – along with an aspiration to hit 3 per cent in the early 2030s. But he said this would also require investment to build up the industry.
He added: ‘I am determined that what we are doing internationally has to be linked to our economic security back here.
Hence all the work we are doing to make sure that where we are spending more on defence… that is measured in good, well-paid, skilled jobs in the UK.’
His intervention came amid growing anger over the EU’s decision to lock British firms out of a £125billion procurement drive.
The EU agreed this week to take a ‘Buy European’ approach as it bolsters its defences against Russia.
No 10 played down the row yesterday, saying British firms could continue to work for EU countries on a bilateral basis. Ministers are expected to seek an exemption for the UK as part of talks on a new ‘security pact’ with the EU.
Kaja Kallas, the EU’s chief diplomat, suggested the bar on UK firms could be eased if Britain signs an agreement.
Meanwhile, former MI6 chief Sir John Sawers has raised fears for the future of the Five Eyes intelligence alliance, suggesting it may not survive Donald Trump.
Sir John said Britain needed to be careful about information shared in the partnership – between , Canada, New Zealand, the UK and the US – due to the President’s ‘concept of unified executive authority where everything… is visible to and controlled from the top’.