Few have felt the ups and downs of the Coalition’s brief fracture more than Northern Territory Senator Jacinta Nampijinpa Price.
The Nationals senator defected to the Liberal Party immediately after the election, declaring that she would run for the deputy leadership of her new party on a ticket with Angus Taylor.
When Taylor narrowly missed out on the top job Price withdrew her nomination, and now anxiously waits to see if she even makes the cut for the shadow cabinet when Sussan Ley names her team.
When the Nationals withdrew from the Coalition it looked certain that Price would secure a senior frontbench role, given the Nationals would no longer be in the running for them, and the Liberals had a shortage of contenders after their electoral drubbing.
Aligning herself with Ley’s initial leadership rival wasn’t regarded as a barrier to Price’s rise, because Ley made it abundantly clear that she would give senior positions to her internal opponents in the name of party unity.
But now that the Coalition has been reinstated – in part courtesy of the Nationals getting a bigger share of shadow cabinet roles – Price might get squeezed out.
That certainly wouldn’t have happened has she stayed in the Nats.
Price will very likely be on the opposition’s frontbench somewhere, but perhaps not within the shadow cabinet.
She is at risk of being demoted to the outer ministry, or heaven forbid perhaps even the lowly rank of shadow assistant minister.
Ley is still working through the new look frontbench – having had to wait on the outcome of ultimately successful negotiations to restore the Coalition – before making calls to let everyone know their roles going forward.
Had Price remained a National she would certainly be a shadow cabinet minister, either remaining in the Indigenous Affairs portfolio or another senior role.
That now seems less certain, but it could be a case of Price taking a backwards step in the short term to realise her ultimate goal of leadership.
Even if she does end up with a demotion for now, her status as a Liberal means higher office beckons.
A National cannot contend for the Coalition leadership or Liberal deputy leadership if Ley falters and needs replacing, and switching parties now gives Price a shot at those positions if they become up for grabs.
Of course Price would also have to find a way out of the Senate and into the lower house if she ever becomes a serious alternative leader, because Prime Ministers cannot preside in the Senate. But that’s a challenge for another day, and it’s still an easier one to overcome from within the Liberals.
The jury is still out on whether Price’s ambitions exceed her abilities. She’s impressed quarters of the conservative side of politics since first being elected, which is why former leader Peter Dutton promoted her so quickly in the previous parliamentary term.
Her opposition to the Voice was the
catalyst for the defeat of the referendum. Now that the Voice issue is in the background, however, Price will need to master issues, where she does not have such first-hand expertise, to prove she’s not a one trick pony.
Whether she has to build that from a junior portfolio or from within shadow cabinet doesn’t overly matter. Price knows how to generate headlines and get attention. She just needs to ensure than in doing so she comes across as a contender not a maverick.
Leadership requires a politician to have broad public appeal, which the occasionally controversial Price hasn’t always had.
That said, in an era when many politicians are regarded as lacking conviction, that’s not a an accusation that can ever be made of Price.