Iowa pollster J. Ann Selzer reacted Sunday to former President Donald Trump labeling her an ‘enemy’ for producing a poll that suggested Vice President Kamala Harris had taken a lead in the Hawkeye State.
Trump reacted with rage at his rally Sunday in Lititz, Pennsylvania over the Des Moines Register/Mediacom survey conducted by Selzer & Company that showed Harris at 47 percent support to Trump’s 44 percent.
Iowa has gone red for Trump the last two election cycles after twice voting for Democratic President Barack Obama – and hasn’t been considered a battleground state this cycle.
‘There is no upsides,’ Selzer told CNN’s Anderson Cooper, explaining, ‘I can’t see that there’s any advantage to me or my career in messing with the numbers to make it look a particular way.’
Trump charged that Selzer over-polled Democrats to make it look like Harris, the Democratic nominee, was in the lead.
‘I got a poll, I’m 10 points up in Iowa,’ Trump said. ‘One of my enemies just put out a poll, I’m three down.’
‘Why do they announce a poll that’s highly skewed toward Democrats and liberals. Why do they do that? When you read it they interviewed far more Democrats than Republicans,’ the GOP nominee complianed. ‘Why do they do that? Why did they do that?’
During her CNN appearance, Selzer explained how that happened.
‘When former President Trump said we interviewed more Democrats, well that’s what came out of our data. We did nothing to make that happen,’ she said.
In order to discern likely voters, pollsters ask voters how likely they are to vote and try to create a model of the electorate.
In the date being collected by Selzer it found more Iowa Democrats were motivated.
The Selzer poll alsop showed that older women were breaking for Harris in a way that other surveys this cycle potentially hadn’t picked up on.
‘I’m a big believer in keeping my fingers off, my dirty fingers off the data. So we did it the way, we did it when he won in our final poll twice, in two election cycles, very same method,’ Selzer said.
She noted that the ‘best news’ she can deliver to any of her client is good data.
‘The best news that I can deliver is my best shot of what’s true, because then you know what you’re working with and you can make adjustments as you need to,’ she said.
Selzer’s final two polls of the 2020 and 2016 showed Trump leading President Joe Biden and Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton respectively.
Trump ended up winning the state.
The last time a final poll was wrong was in 2004 – as her survey showed Democrat John Kerry beating President George W. Bush in Iowa, though Bush narrowly won the state.