In Mafia parlance they are the ‘made men’ – mobsters who become fully initiated members of the crime families only after carrying out their first ‘hit’.
The term – popularised by Martin Scorsese’s Goodfellas, the Mafia blockbuster starring Robert De Niro – is starting to be applied to the underbosses of the Tory party as they watch Rishi Sunak sink to near-record lows in the polls.
As this newspaper revealed last year, the anti-Rishi intrigue initially centred on a group of so-called ‘pasta plotters’ associated with former Home Secretary Suella Braverman, who drew up a rebel ‘grid of s**t’ over dishes of ravioli in London’s Theatreland.
Now, in the wake of a Budget which lived down to Tory MPs’ expectations, the heavy mob are threatening to move in. One Tory MP, allied to the ‘made men’, says: ‘So far the plotting has been pretty amateurish. But that’s because the serious players haven’t got involved yet. As in Goodfellas, the first moment Rishi realises they’re coming for him will be the moment he’s already dead.’
As in Goodfellas, the first moment Rishi Sunak realises they’re coming for him will be the moment he’s already dead (Pictured from left, film stars Ray Liotta, Robert De Niro, Paul Sorvino, Joe Pesci)
The tensions came to a head when Tory chairman Richard Holden spotted one of these ‘gangsters’ outside the Commons voting lobby earlier this month. Afterwards Mr Holden accused the rebel of working to undermine the Prime Minister.
He shot back in front of more than 20 MPs: ‘We brought down Theresa May and we brought down Boris. If we were working against Sunak he’d be gone by now – and you would be out of a job.’ He was backed up by a former Tory Cabinet minister, who told Mr Holden: ‘When we move against someone we do it properly. Just ask Theresa.’
That move could be coming soon. At the centre of the machinations is the Conservative Democratic Organisation (CDO), formed by disaffected Tories after the removal of Boris Johnson as leader.
Founded by Tory donor Peter Cruddas and backed by the likes of Priti Patel, Jacob Rees-Mogg and Nadine Dorries, its members led criticism of the Budget – which cut 2p from National Insurance but, according to the CDO, ‘offered nothing for working people’.
Playing a central role in the drama is Lady McAlpine – who helped to organise a pre-Budget council of war to discuss removing Mr Sunak. More than 50 MPs and peers, who had been contacted on their private email addresses, were talked through the results of polling commissioned by Lady McAlpine – which concluded that only Mr Johnson could save the party.
Lady McAlpine, a party donor, is also influential in the Henley area, where members of the local association have discussed parachuting Mr Johnson back into his former seat before the election to allow him to stand as party leader.
Speculation over Mr Johnson’s plans have swirled since the Henley association selected Caroline Newton, a Johnson ally, as its candidate – with the implication that she might stand aside for him at the last minute.
The problem for all the plotters, however is that they cannot agree on a replacement for Mr Sunak
Allies of Mr Johnson insisted last night that he had no immediate plans to stand, on the grounds that ‘the polling is so bad even he can’t save the party’. But Lady McAlpine told the MoS: ‘The Tory party is rotten to the core. We need new Conservative values, and Boris is the person to deliver that.
‘He is the only person with the charisma to lead the party to success. We need Boris back’.
The problem for all the plotters, however – and it is quite a substantial one – is that they cannot agree on a replacement for Mr Sunak if Mr Johnson is not available. The former frontrunner, Business Secretary Kemi Badenoch, has fallen from favour with a speed which does not surprise her detractors.
Although undoubtedly talented and in touch with the anti-woke values of Conservative Britain, Ms Badenoch is also regarded as impulsive and erratic, with questionable people skills: colleagues winced when she started a ferocious row with Henry Staunton in the wake of his dismissal from his role as Post Office chairman.
One former minister said: ‘How she behaved with Staunton is how she behaves with everyone. She crosses the road to start a fight.’
And a Tory MP said: ‘It’s ‘Anyone But Rishi’. But I’ve made clear that its also ABK: ‘Anyone – other than Rishi – But Kemi’.
‘She is always on the anti-woke attack about issues such as transgender bathrooms, but what has she actually delivered?’
Her supporters, who include the mysterious Tory fixer Dougie Smith, are undeterred. One source claimed that Ms Badenoch’s allies had started to draw up a detailed policy agenda, modelled on Sir Keith Joseph’s work to prepare for Margaret Thatcher’s administration in 1979, although Ms Badenoch does not confirm this.
A former Cabinet minister said Mr Johnson offered the party’s only chance to avoid annihilation
Lady McAlpine herself is understood to support Mrs Braverman, who is closely linked to the pasta plotters and has maintained a high profile since she was sacked by Mr Sunak last year.
But most of the momentum is building around Commons Leader Penny Mordaunt, on the left of the party, and Ms Patel, the former Home Secretary, who could be the flag-bearer for the Right.
But with one poll published on Friday putting the Tory vote share at 18 per cent – just five per cent ahead of Nigel Farage’s Reform – the smell of panic hangs heavily in the air.
While most Tory MPs expect Mr Sunak to wait until the autumn to call the General Election, rather than dovetail the poll with the local elections on May 2, an increasing number of them wonder whether the decision will rest in his hands.
One said: ‘The only reason I don’t want a May election is, selfishly, I’m not ready for it all to end. But I just can’t see this continuing much longer.’
And one of those involved in the McAlpine meeting said: ‘I previously thought it would be too reckless to remove yet another Prime Minister, but now I don’t think we have any choice.’
A former Cabinet minister told the MoS that Mr Johnson offered the party’s only chance to avoid annihilation. They said: ‘If Boris came back for the General Election it could save as many as 80 MPs. It would give Conservatives hope, a reason to vote. If we go into an election and Boris is out in the cold, voters will simply stay at home and sit on their hands.
‘The party needs to wake up fast – these weeks before the local elections could be crucial.’
A spokesman for Mr Johnson distanced him from the plotting, saying: ‘Boris fully supports the Government’