Mon. Mar 3rd, 2025
alert-–-how-would-keir-starmer’s-‘coalition-of-the-willing’-enforce-a-peace-deal-in-ukraine?-european-troops-on-the-ground-and-raf-planes-in-the-skies-could-stop-russia-breaking-a-ceasefireAlert – How WOULD Keir Starmer’s ‘coalition of the willing’ enforce a peace deal in Ukraine? European troops on the ground and RAF planes in the skies could stop Russia breaking a ceasefire

Sir Keir Starmer has declared a ‘coalition of the willing’ is ready to enforce a peace deal in Ukraine and help deter future Russian attacks.

The Prime Minister this weekend said those countries signed up to his peacekeeping blueprint would ‘intensify’ their planning ‘with real urgency’.

He added he was ready to commit British ‘boots on the ground and planes in the air’ as he called on Europe to ‘do the heavy lifting’ in support of Kyiv.

It follows suggestions that UK troops could form part of a 30,000-strong European peacekeeping force within Ukraine.

RAF Typhoons might also be deployed to help patrol Ukrainian skies, while Royal Navy ships could be sent to the Black Sea to deter another Russian assault.

The frantic rush to develop a peackeeping plan comes amid fears that US President Donald Trump is poised to abandon both Europe and Ukraine.

His administration has told European nations to shoulder greater responsibility for both their own and Ukraine’s security.

Mr Trump’s stance has prompted speculation that France might deploy nuclear-armed fighter jets to Germany to widen Europe’s nuclear shield.

And, despite calls for a US ‘backstop’ for a peace deal, it has been suggested that American security guarantees might only take the form of a minerals deal with Kyiv.

The UK and France are taking the lead in drafting the peacekeeping plans, but there are doubts over the role that other countries – such as Italy and Poland  – might play.

So, as the scramble to draw up a blueprint continues, here’s how a peacekeeping plan is shaping up so far…

Troops on the ground

Sir Keir’s willingness to send British troops to Ukraine could see them join a multi-national peacekeeping force that will reportedly be 30,000-strong in size.

Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky has claimed 110,000 foreign troops might be needed to secure peace due to the huge size of Ukraine’s border with Russia – but some experts disagree.

Jack Watling, of the Royal United Services Institute, and Michal Kofman, of Carnegie Endowment, said a foreign peacekeeping force ‘does not need to be everywhere’.

‘It needs to have a presence on three directions, and with sufficient mobility to redeploy as necessary along the front,’ they wrote in a joint article.

‘Any future Russian attack would invariably be along several predictable directions. 

‘Today, most of the fighting is concentrated typically along three to four sectors of the front at a time.

‘Hence, a relatively small force package can be sufficient for introducing risk into Russian calculus.

‘The most obvious directions would be Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Donetsk.

‘Western formations would deploy to these regions not as frontline troops, but as supporting echelons backing Ukrainian forces.’

They added that the ‘significant degradation’ in Russian forces during the last three years of conflict meant a smaller peacekeeping force might suffice immediately.

But they added that bigger troop numbers were likely to be committed by European nations due to the need to rotate their forces in and out of Ukraine.

Air policing

It was recently reported that Britain could send RAF Typhoon fighter jets to police Ukrainian skies as part of a peace deal.

A UK-led effort could be modelled on NATO missions already taking place over the Baltics, with fighter jets potentially based in Poland. 

According to The Times, UK ministers have discussed ways of providing security guarantees without the need for large numbers of troops on the ground.

A senior Government source told the newspaper there could be an ‘air policing’ mission, along with air defence systems to protect jets over Ukrainian skies.

An RAF source said this was more likely than a no-fly zone, which would require aircraft to patrol the skies 24 hours a day.

Instead, an ‘air policing’ mission would involve aircraft ‘armed to the teeth’ and ready to scramble.

In-country training for Ukrainian troops

In their article for the War on the Rocks website, Watling and Kofman suggested – under a peace deal – there could be boosted training for Ukrainian troops.

Tens of thousands of Ukrainians have been trained on British soil under ‘Operation Interflex’ since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022.

But this could be moved to within Ukraine’s borders if a ceasefire is agreed, the experts said.

‘Britain’s 11 Security Force Assistance Brigade, which is the unit at the core of that effort, should also be deployed,’ they added.

‘This would address Ukraine’s longtime request for greater in-country training of its forces, and adaptation of its basic training regimen.’

A US ‘backstop’

Sir Keir has consistently said a US ‘backstop’ is needed for a Ukraine peace deal.

But, amid concerns about Mr Trump’s wavering support for Kyiv, there are doubts over whether this will take the form of US military commitment.

The US President himself has suggested that Russia’s Vladimir Putin would ‘keep his word’ on a peace agreement if he succeeds in signing a minerals deal with Ukraine.

Mr Trump argued that US workers extracting critical minerals in the country would act as a security backstop to deter Russia from invading again. 

He said: ‘I don’t think anybody’s going to play around if we’re there with a lot of workers and having to do with rare earths and other things which we need for our country.’ 

A Black Sea deterrent

Mr Zelensky has suggested a European peackeeping force could include Royal Navy ships being deployed to the Black Sea to deter a new Russian attack.

The Ukrainian President also touted the possibility of Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden joining such an effort.

‘Ideally, our partners who are professionals at sea – Britain, the Nordics, etc.  if they are experts, it would be best if they were in the sea,’ he told the Munich Security Conference last month.

A widened nuclear shield

As the US threatens to withdraw its support for European security, it has been suggested that France is ready to use its nuclear deterrent to protect the continent.

French fighter jets carrying nuclear weapons could potentially be deployed to Germany in order to widen Europe’s nuclear shield amid the threat from Russia.

But leading opposition politician Marine Le Pen has attacked the suggestion that France’s nuclear warheads could be pooled to help protect Europe.

‘French defence must remain French defence,’ she said.

Who will be part of Sir Keir’s ‘coalition of the willing’?

Britain and France have taken a leading role in drawing up a peacekeeping plan for Ukraine – but, as yet, it is unclear what other countries might take part.

Sweden and Turkey have both said they would be open to providing peacekeeping troops in Ukraine.

The Baltic states – Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia – and Finland could also be involved, while, from outside of Europe, Canada is another possible contributor.

But Poland, Spain and Germany are not expected to commit troops, while Italian PM Giorgia Meloni has previously clashed with France’s Emmanuel Macron over the issue.

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