Nearly two years into the gruelling war in Ukraine, Vladimir Putin is banking on the collapse of Western support to decisively turn the tide and announce a decisive victory by 2027, experts warn.
After months held to relative stalemate in Europe, the Russian President will now turn to exploit global instability in the Middle East and South America in a bid to distract Kyiv’s allies and sponsors around the world, derailing the West’s staunch backing of Ukraine and its fierce resistance.
Vlad Şutea, founder and lead analyst at early warning and threatcasting group T-Intelligence, told Russia will ramp up efforts to ‘rally support in the “Global South”‘ this year, fomenting ‘anti-Western sentiment’ and even ‘encouraging regional conflicts elsewhere’ as the world hangs in the balance of a few key elections.
And if Putin is able to alienate Ukraine from its friends this year, unrest will pave the way to ‘complete victory in the latter half of this decade’, with dates pencilled in as early as 2025, he says.
Ukrainian soldiers sit on a T-64 tank during combat duty in the Bakhmut direction on December 27, 2023 in Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine
A Ukrainian soldier sits inside a T-64 tank during combat duty in the Bakhmut direction on December 27, 2023 in Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine
Ukrainian soldiers fire with the Archer Artillery System on Russian position on January 3, 2024 in Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine
The state of war in January as Ukraine looks to steadily retake land in the south and east
‘Global geopolitical and war risks are at their highest in recent years, with tensions escalating on every continent,’ explains Mr Şutea.
‘The current state of play appears remarkably advantageous for Russia, diverting attention and resources away from its ongoing war on Ukraine— as we already see with Israel.
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‘But the optimal scenario for Putin involves coordinated moves by his allies towards their respective objectives: China’s aggression against Taiwan, Iran fully unleashing its proxies in the Middle East, a resumption of the Korean War, and a Venezuelan invasion of Guyana.’
Russia has chosen its friends carefully, building strategic relationships with nations that do not always seem clearly aligned on politics or ambitions. China sought to go its own way after the Chinese Communist Party came to power in 1949 – but finds common ground with Russia today in looking to undermine American hegemony.
Iran’s relationship with Russia has been rocky but held together by shared interests in the Middle East. Were Iran to support Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen against Israel, Kyiv fears its allies would be forced to divert resources away from Ukraine.
Venezuela agreed to move troops away from the Guyana border in December but tensions persist over access to the oil-rich Esequibo region. Philip Ingram MBE, retired British Army colonel and military intelligence specialist, told if the conflict does boil over it would ‘almost certainly result in U.S. boots on the ground and possible UK involvement’, playing into Putin’s hands.
‘Such a coordinated series of events would not only present numerous dilemmas for the West, particularly the U.S., but also align with Putin’s and Xi’s shared vision of establishing a so-called ‘multipolar world’ order,’ says Mr Şutea.
‘In order words, a return to the imperial-style “spheres of influence”, where democracies wane and autocracies redraw maps to their liking. Russia eyes to “reclaim”… Central and Eastern Europe, China wants to dominate East Asia and contest the U.S. internationally, and Iran wants the Middle East for itself and its allies, and so forth.
‘Our procrastinated, insufficient, and often fearful response to the situation in Ukraine has already provided other revisionist autocracies a concept validation that relentless aggression does pay off, with some patience, even if it doesn’t work out from the start.’
Already, Microsoft has revealed that since July 2023, pro-Russian social media channels have published videos deceptively edited to push anti-Ukraine propaganda – apparently indicative of a global push to undermine popular support for Ukraine.
‘Kremlin officials and Russian state-sponsored propaganda have long promoted the false claim that President Zelensky struggles with substance abuse; however, this campaign marks a novel approach by pro-Russia actors seeking to further the narrative in the online information space,’ a Security Insider memo concluded.
Elsewhere, Putin was quick to align with Hamas – a decision shocking onlookers, given Russia’s pragmatic relationship with Israel – and pinning the war on ‘the failure of US policy in the Middle East’ – a soundbite likely to go down well in the Global South, experts say.
In Gaza, Putin may have exploited attention being drawn away from Ukraine. In South America, Russia has more directly influenced instability. Venezuela is able to back up repeated threats to annex the oil-rich Guyanese region of Esequibo with Russian-supplied tanks and infantry fighting vehicles, and helped by investment from Russian companies.
In December, Putin and Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro shared their desire for the ushering in of a new ‘multipolar world’ as Maduro pledged to visit Russia this year.
A Ukrainian soldier of the 41st brigade walks in a trench near the frontline, outside Kupiansk, Kharkiv region, on January 23, 2024
Ukrainian soldiers of the 41st brigade stand in a trench outside Kupiansk on January 23, 2024
Empty graves after the exhumation of bodies in the mass grave dug during Russia’s occupation, near the town of Izyum, Kharkiv region, January 23, 2024
A destroyed armoured military vehicle in a field in Kharkiv region of Ukraine, January 23, 2024
The sense that all is still to play for means diplomatic prospects are still very much a Western discussion not being entertained in Russia, says Marie Dumoulin, former French diplomat and director of the Wider Europe Programme at the European Council of Foreign Relations (ECFR).
‘Every time the Russians have been saying we’re open to talk, they’ve added “provided Ukraine recognises the new territorial realities”, which means surrendering and giving up its territorial integrity.’
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As late as December 2023, Putin indicated he had no intention to end the war until Russia achieved the ‘demilitarisation’ and ‘denazification’ of Ukraine.
On the other side, Ukraine will bitterly hold on to sovereignty having only secured its independence in 1991 with the fall of the USSR. For much of the 20th century, Ukrainian identity was suppressed by Soviet schools and the emigration of Russian nationals to – now contested – parts of southern and eastern Ukraine.
After three decades of protests and hard-won reforms to unpick corruption and align Ukraine more closely with the West, popular support for continuing the war and defeating Russia remains high.
‘We see in Ukraine people getting exhausted by the war’ says Ms Dumoulin. ‘But that doesn’t mean that they are ready to compromise on the sovereignty and territorial integrity of their country.
‘There is this feeling that there have been so many sacrifices, that you just can’t step back without having lost everything.’
But Ukraine’s ability to keep up momentum will depend on its ability to replenish spent resources with support from abroad.
‘Now, Putin’s calculus is that ultimately, time plays for Russia, because he assumes that the West will not be willing to support Ukraine long enough for Ukraine to prevail.
‘And in addition to that, in terms of resources, his calculus is that ultimately Russia has more resources to put into this war than Ukraine.’
Ms Dumoulin agrees that foreign conflicts could soak up attention from the war Ukraine, undermining Kyiv’s efforts to find reliable backers in the West.
‘The media attention has clearly shifted from the war in Ukraine. And the war in Gaza has implications in terms of domestic politics for a wide number of countries, including France, for example.’
Still, she says, governments in the West – and especially in Europe – are unlikely to divert their attention from the Steppe ‘because of the vital nature of the conflict for new countries [in the EU]’.
She adds that the relationship between Israel and Russia has been ‘clearly affected’ by the conflict in Gaza, but said that signals were ‘ambiguous’ at this stage.
‘The history of the Russia-Israel relationship is, is more about very flexible arrangements, depending on the topics. And I would assume that they will try to continue to find that kind of flexible arrangements. But then I didn’t expect Russia to try to clearly side with Hamas.’
A law enforcement officer inspects the site of Russian missile debris in Vyshneve, Kyiv region, on January 23, 2024
Kyiv, the capital, has been hit with missiles since the war began in February 2022 (Jan 23 pic)
An injured man receives first aid after the Russian missile attack on Kharkiv, January 23, 2024
Rescuers search for people under the rubble at a residential building damaged in the Russian missile attack on Kharkiv
Dr Tobias Borck, researcher at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) in London, told the conflict in Gaza is ‘convenient’ for Russia in distracting the West and influencing narrative.
‘For Russia, what is going on in the Middle East is quite convenient because it does draw attention away from Ukraine. It does create a second big thing to worry about for the West and that is a good thing for Russia.
‘Yes, Russia has come out positioning itself more favourably to the Palestinians but I think that is primarily narrative; Russia has a pretty good relationship with Israel… but what Putin can do is make this big argument that the West with its double standards is giving Israel a free hand in the killing of civilians and so on.
‘It’s an argument that goes down quite well in the Global South. And I think Russia will continue to exploit that however inconsistent with the facts it might be.
‘Russia has never been in the business of facts so it is just exploiting that. Ultimately, when we think about Russian strategy in the Middle East there’s one thing I always come back to, that Russia does not actively want instability in the Middle East; it’s not actively creating instability in the Middle East necessarily.
‘However, it concludes that instability in the Middle East is worse for the West than it is for Russia.
‘So it is most certainly not going to help create stability. It might occasionally exploit instability. I think that’s what we are seeing with Wagner Group now in Libya and Sudan and elsewhere.
‘But I don’t think we understand the problem correctly when we are looking for a grand scheme in Washington and in Moscow.’
Despite Russia’s exploitation of foreign conflicts, there is hope for Ukraine. Last year, the country lost 0.05 per cent of its land – compared to 17 per cent in 2022. Ukraine also has 40 to 50 per cent fewer casualties, estimates T-Intelligence.
In a new report looking ahead at trends for 2024, the organisation notes Ukraine’s determination to resist ‘remains unwavering’ and its military capabilities have ‘significantly and irreversibly strengthened’ thanks, in part, to the commitments of Western backers.
‘Putin’s theory of victory hinges on outlasting both Western support for Ukraine and Ukraine’s capacity to sustain the war in terms of manpower, capabilities, industry, and economy,’ explains Mr Şutea.
‘He is banking on a prolonged conflict with military attrition and international fatigue to secure a win. To counter this, Western and international support for Ukraine needs an unprecedented surge—increasing military material assistance, removing political restrictions on weaponry, accelerating defense-industrial output, and shaping political goals to put Ukrainian victory and Russian defeat as the chief aims.’
Ukrainian border guards patrol the Ukrainian-Belarusian border in Chernigiv region on January 23, 2024
The harsh winter is likely to slow armour and put extra pressure for troops on both sides
The border with Russian ally Belarus (pictured) remains dangerous. Last August, Poland began a series of military drills on its border with Belarus in a display of strength and deterrent
Ukrainian soldiers remove a camouflage net from crates of ammunition before going to the frontline in the direction of Bakhmut, January 23, 2024
Russia will not achieve its aims in 2024, T-Intelligence estimates, and will be looking to drag out the war until at least 2025, dependent on how long backers maintain their pledges to Ukraine.
For now, the focus will likely be on the complete conquest of the Donbas and Oskil River Valley in Kharkiv Oblast – although these too are ‘unlikely to be met’.
Both sides will focus on investment into – they hope – game-changing technologies this year, with Ukraine finding success in drones and Russia boosting spending to $140bn (up 30 per cent) to improve its missiles and vehicles.
Ukraine’s spending, meanwhile, will drop slightly from 2022 – to $44bn. T-Intelligence warns that the outcome of key elections could spell ‘uncertainty’ and risk ‘future curtailment’ of essential aid to Ukraine.
According to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, an independent non-profit research organisation based in Germany, newly committed aid from governments reached a new low between August and October 2023, a 90 per cent drop year on year.
New packages were valued at just EUR 2.11 billion (£1.84bn), the lowest since January 2022 – before the invasion. Charities urge that aid is as vital now as ever.
Yaroslava Gres, Coordinator of Ukraine’s official fundraiser, UNITED24, told : ‘Aid and support from the West have been crucial in sustaining Ukraine through this challenging period.
‘It’s not just about the tangible help; there’s also a moral and psychological boost that comes from knowing there are countries and people out there who stand with Ukraine during this war.’
‘At the same time, every day, Ukrainians are on the frontlines, not just defending our homeland but also upholding values and principles that resonate with the West. The war in Ukraine is a war in general for values: life, democracy, and freedom. We are defending our basic human rights, which are understood by everyone in the world.’
She told that Ukraine is especially in need of medical equipment and intensive care incubators for the growing number of prematurely born babies in the country, expected to have increased ‘by at least 15 per cent due to the war’.
‘Behind this figure, there are thousands of vulnerable newborns fighting for survival, dependent on specialised intensive care incubators.’
On top of this, Ukraine has the challenge of rebuilding hospitals and healthcare facilities in wartime to manage the humanitarian crisis and aid the country’s recovery. Then there are schools and bomb shelters desperately needed to protect Ukraine from the intense bombardment of Russian missiles – mitigated in part by critical air defense, dependent largely on foreign donations.
And as the war evolves, Ukraine will look to implement its learnings with a new fleet of naval drones, guarding Ukrainian waters and shielding cities from missiles launched by Russian ships – of unmeasurable value to the lives saved, but costing Ukraine $250,000 per drone.
‘Ongoing assistance from Western nations and individuals is more critical than ever. This support is not just about meeting immediate needs; it’s about standing together in a fight for values that unite us.’
A resident looks at the of an industrial building surrounded by apartment houses after a night Russian rocket attack in Sloviansk, Ukraine, Saturday, January 27, 2024
Local residents use plywood to replace windows in their homes shattered during a night Russian rocket attack in Sloviansk, Ukraine, Saturday, January 27, 2024.
A soldier prepares a mortar shell shooting a target in the direction of Bakhmut, where clashes between Russia and Ukraine continue to take place, in Donetsk Oblast, January 26
A Ukrainian soldier prepares a mortar before shooting a target in the direction of Bakhmut, in Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine on January 26, 2024
Natalia Tronenko, co-founder of British-Ukrainian Aid, spoke to about how support has changed over the last two years: ‘We receive fewer donations [than at the beginning of the war] and there are fewer fundraising events organised in support of Ukraine.
‘Now the tendency is to narrow down the list of specific items to be procured and delivered; donations are often ring-fenced. There were more hospitals donating their supplies to Ukraine than there are now.
‘More charitable trusts, businesses and companies used to contact us, and although often generous, they were mostly one-off donations. However, in the past two years, we’ve built a database of supporters who donate to us on a regular basis via our website, PayPal, JustGiving and other fundraising platforms.
‘We started receiving vehicles as donations, and a number of people included our charity as a beneficiary in their wills.’
Ms Tronenko said the most urgently-needed aid still includes tourniquets, first aid kits, evacuation vehicles and rucksacks for medical equipment. More recent was demand for evacuation drones.
Another vicious dimension of Putin’s war is the weaponisation of these bare essentials needed so desperately by Ukraine’s beleaguered civilian population. Catriona Murdoch, Partner at Global Rights Compliance and Starvation Mobile Justice Team Lead, spoke to about their research.
‘We are seeing a clear attempt to undermine Ukrainian morale through the systematic destruction of the Ukrainian way of life. The weaponisation of food, water, energy, and other critical infrastructure is just one way in which this is being done.’
The encirclement of towns and cities cuts the population off from essentials, she says, before strikes decimate infrastructure critical to supporting live, forcing large populations to migrate away. Agricultural infrastructure is then targeted to cut deep into Ukraine’s ability to feed itself and export grain to ‘food insecure countries’ – breeding further unrest.
‘These starvation tactics are not new but are seen time and again across current and recent conflicts,’ explains Ms Murdoch. ‘Yet the Ukrainian spirit is not something that can be destroyed by missiles. Something so calculated to ruin and divide, has in fact united Ukrainians, and given them the strength to continue their brave resistance.’
A Ukrainian infantryman keeps the watch in the trenches on the front line, in the direction of Bakhmut on January 19, 2024
Trenches bogged down in mud and water continue to be staffed by a fierce resistance in Ukraine
As temperatures drop the Ukrainian soldiers keep their positions under the harsh winter conditions
Ukrainian servicemen of the 92nd Separate Assault Brigade fire a M109A5 Paladin self-propelled howitzer towards Russian troops near Bakhmut on January 16, 2024
Ukraine will focus on minimising territorial losses in 2024, the experts warn, as it prepares for a year of declining military and humanitarian aid. While this may spell fewer major counteroffensives, analysts says a lack of clear progress should indicate Ukraine is giving up the fight.
Much will hinge on how well Ukraine can address recruitment and leadership challenges within its own military, and the extent to which Russia is able to mobilise troops and fuel its war machine. But the direction of the war will also depend on the flow of aid to Ukraine – and Russia’s attempts to manipulate it.
The commitments of international allies have gone a long way to ensuring Putin’s army is not able to continue its march west. But the experts, and those most affected, say it will take real persistence to stop Russia from wearing down the enemy with distractions in other countries.
‘Peace does not come when the attacked country lays down its arms. Then it is not peace, but occupation,’ concludes Oleksandra Matviichuk, Ukrainian human rights lawyer and co-recipient of the 2022 Nobel Peace Prize.
‘To achieve peace in Ukraine, we need to stop Russia. Putin will be stopped only when someone stops him. Like any dictator, he preys on weakness and fears strength.
‘Therefore, we need the support of the international community to stop him in Ukraine and going further.’