Ron DeSantis is gambling much of his campaign on a strong showing in Iowa while Nikki Haley is seeing her headline numbers grow.
But pollsters and analysts say neither of them can take comfort from the final survey before Republicans in Iowa pick their preferred candidate on Monday.
Once again, the real winner on Saturday night was former President Donald Trump, who maintains his iron grip on the nomination race despite slipping three points in the NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll.
So even though Haley overtook DeSantis to take second place with 20 percent of the base, her favorability and enthusiasm numbers put her on ‘shaky ground’ according to Anne Selzer, who conducted the poll.
‘The deep data on (Haley) suggest she looks stronger in the poll than she could on caucus night,’ she said.
The NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll was conducted Jan. 7-12 with 705 likely Republican caucus goers. Its margin of error is plus-minus 3.7 percentage points
Nikki Haley is the first choice of 20 percent of Republican polled. But analysis of her numbers suggests her support may be soft, leaving her liable to underperform on Monday
Just nine percent of those who plan to caucus for Haley said they were ‘extremely enthusiastic’ about her. Some 30 percent said they were ‘very enthusiastic.’
‘Her enthusiasm numbers, again, I just think are on the edge of jaw-dropping,’ Selzer told the Des Moines Register. ‘That 61 percent are just mildly enthusiastic or not that enthusiastic — it just seems at odds with a candidate moving up.’
Selzer’s view matters. She is the doyenne of Iowa pollsters, with a reputation for accuracy and deep integrity.
Haley is intent on a strong second place finish. She is challenging Trump in the next state, New Hampshire, and she and DeSantis are fighting for the right to be crowned the best alternative to the former president and knock the other out.
The results put Trump on course for a record-breaking win. He commands 48 percent support in the poll (down three from December), with Haley on 20 (up four points), and DeSantis on 16 percent (down three).
Daily Mail pollster James Johnson, co-founder of J.L. Partners saw another problem in the numbers.
‘A whopping 39 percent of Haley’s supporters are independents and 11 percent are “Democrats”. That’s half her vote,’ he said.
In order to caucus for her, they will have to change their party registration. And in 2016, the last competitive Iowa caucus, officials said less than one percent of new G.O.P. registrations were Democrat, and only three percent were Independent.
‘Even allowing for the fact that in 2016 there was also a Democratic caucus, add in the weather effect this year and Haley’s lead is almost certainly being overstated – big time,’ he added.
The poll has Ron DeSantis on the slide just when he needs a strong finish and a result that would help him knock Haley out of the race, making him the top challenger to Trump
DeSantis has a big ground game. It will be put to the test on Monday. Eli Weltman of Never Back Down, an independent group backing DeSantis, talks to a voter in Marion on Wednesday
DeSantis’ problem was more immediately obvious. He has gambled much of his campaign in a strong finish in Iowa, where a conservative, evangelical population should suit his core message.
But that is not showing up in his poll numbers, where he is headed the wrong way.
And his favorability numbers are going down. While some 66 percent said the had a favorable opinion of the Florida governor in December, that has fallen to 58 percent.
His unfavorability score climbed from 29 percent to 36 percent in that period.
But there is a bright spot. His supporters are the most likely to turn out on the day and caucus.
Among DeSantis supporters, 62 percent said they will definitely turn up. The figure falls to 56 percent among Trump supporters and is only 51 percent for Haley.
Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump participates in a virtual rally at Hotel Fort Des Moines in Des Moines, Iowa
The overall direction of the data, however, is that there is no stopping Trump, said Jimmy Centers, an Iowa Republican strategist who is unaligned in this race.
‘His foot is firmly on the gas and the caucus appears to be more of a coronation for him,’ he said.
‘If this lead holds, and he then wins New Hampshire, it’s hard imagining a scenario in which he is not the Republican nominee for president.’
He can rely on the most committed cohort of support, for example.
The poll shows 87 percent of his supporters saying they always backed him as their first choice, compared with 67 percent for DeSantis and 46 percent for Haley.
Trump also has the highest favorability numbers. He has a plus 40 rating (the proportion who have a favorable view minus the proportion with an unfavorable view), compared with DeSantis at plus 22, and Haley at plus two.