Donald Trump’s new 10 per cent ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs on all n exports to the US could end up costing local consumers more.
The American President slammed for refusing to relaxing its strict biosecurity measures to get a possible exemption to new reciprocal tariffs on its biggest export to the US, beef.
‘ bans — and they’re wonderful people, and wonderful everything — but they ban American beef,’ he said.
‘Yet we imported $US3 billion of n beef from them just last year alone.
‘They won’t take any of our beef.
‘They don’t want it because they don’t want it to affect their farmers and you know, I don’t blame them but we’re doing the same thing right now starting at midnight tonight, I would say.’
A kilogram of rump steak at Woolworths is now selling for $28.
But the n Food Sovereignty Alliance, representing 350 small-scale farmers, fears rump steak will end of costing n consumers $56 at the supermarket.
Spokeswoman Tammi Jonas, an organic beef cattle producer from Daylesford in Victoria, said the American tariffs on agricultural imports would see more countries buy n beef to avoid trading with the US.
‘We already know there’s high demand for n beef around the world and I think that’s just going to get higher,’ she told Daily Mail .
‘In a global supply crunch like this, we could see rump steak climb past $50 per kilogram.
‘That’s not a family dinner – that’s a premium luxury.’
Dr Jonas said higher export prices would see less n meat sold to domestic consumers.
‘I would say there’s a strong likelihood of that, yes,’ she said.
‘And even if we still have enough beef sold within , the prices are certain to go up.
‘Whenever you’re in those global markets, you roll with the volatility and if they can get a really high price overseas, they’re not going to charge less for domestic sales.’
But Angus Gidley-Baird, a senior analyst in animal protein with RaboResearch, said more expensive steak at the supermarket was unlikely, given the strong supply of n beef with the recent rainfall.
‘We produced record volumes of beef last year, I don’t see why there would be a shortage in the domestic market that would cause prices to rise,’ he told Daily Mail .
‘The exports are effectively our markets that we sell the additional production into.’
has been slapped with blanket 10 per cent tariffs, in line with the UK, Singapore, Brazil and Chile.
But China is being hit with a much higher 34 per cent tariff, compared with 25 per cent for South Korea and 24 per cent for Japan.
Meat and Livestock data showed the US was ‘s biggest market for beef exports in 2024, putting it well ahead of Japan, South Korea and China.
Of the beef sent to the United States, 96 per cent of it was the leaner, grass fed variety that was either chilled or frozen.
The Americans have been in the grip of a drought, and most of their beef is fattier, grain-fed.
South American beef exporters Argentina and Brazil are also dealing with a lack of rainfall, which means demand for n beef would continue to be strong.
Like , they would also be subjected to 10 per cent tariffs, which means other beef producing nations are under similar pressure.
‘If it’s a large tariff but applied to everyone, our competitive position remains the same,’ Mr Gidley-Baird said.
The n Agricultural Company and Elders are set to face share market pressure on Thursday.
n meat exports to the US were last year worth $4.2billion with 400,000 tonnes of beef sent to the American market.
Moomoo market strategist Jessica Amir said ‘s biggest export to the US was under serious threat.
‘Donald Trump said “no more”. Just like that, ‘s biggest export to the US seems hit,’ she said.
‘It sounds like Trump is going to ban imports of n beef, but no one can be sure yet as we await more detail.’
Mr Gidley-Baird said the Americans, who produced fattier, grain-fed beef, would still need the leaner, n grass-fed beef to make hamburger patties, regardless of import tariffs.
‘The US still continues to need imported product because they’re not producing as much themselves,’ he said.
‘They’ll still need n beef – the drought, it’s getting better in the US but they’ve liquidated their herd and production volumes are down.
‘What sends to the US complements their production system over there in that it balances out the fatter product they’re producing for hamburger production.
‘They need the product and we’re one of the biggest suppliers of it – me being rational would still say that they would still buy it.’
At the margins, strong American demand for grass-fed beef had pushed up prices for n lean mince, now selling for $15.50 a kilo at Woolworths.
‘The US market has been very strong – it’s demanding a fair amount of product which is putting a bit of pressure on mince prices, lean product prices,’ Mr Gidley-Baird said.
The n Food Sovereignty Alliance sees mince prices more than doubling to $36 a kilo.
But Dr Jonas predicted tariffs on n beef would see American demand plunge, despite the fact they are in drought with an undersupply of grass-fed beef.
‘With a 25 per cent tariff they won’t be able to afford it – Americans are in as big a cost-of-living crisis as ns are and they can’t handle a 25 per cent tariff on top of the higher meat price of imported n beef,’ she said.
The n Food Sovereignty Alliance didn’t do specific economic modelling on n beef prices, as a result of the Trump tariffs on agriculture coming into effect on Thursday.
But it argued China’s African swine flu in 2019 led to a doubling of pork prices, as supply fell by 40 per cent.
The alliance campaigns against agribusiness giants like JBS Foods , which owns feedlots and abattoirs.
‘The local farmers like us are losing access to the facilities to slaughter,’ Dr Jonas said.
‘While that sounds like a good thing for – when we think, “We can export more” – the reality of that is very few people profit from that higher export.’
The latest ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs on n agriculture and pharmaceutical exports follow 25 per cent tariffs on steel and aluminium, introduced on March 12.