Voters are heading to the polls across England today in 23 council elections, six mayoral contests, and one parliamentary by-election.
Polling stations are open between 7am and 10pm as voters choose more than 1,600 councillors, half-a-dozen regional mayors, and a new MP for Runcorn and Helsby.
It is the first big test for Britain’s political parties since last July’s general election, at which Labour secured a landslide win.
Expectations of success for Sir Keir Starmer’s party this time around have been dramatically reduced, following the PM’s bumpy start to life in Downing Street.
Meanwhile, the Tories – facing their first set of elections under new leader Kemi Badenoch – are hoping to stage a recovery from last summer’s historic defeat.
But both Labour and the Tories are facing a recent surge in support for Reform UK, while a strong showing is also expected from the Liberal Democrats and Greens.
Nigel Farage’s party are expected to be the big winners from Thursday’s council contests with some pollsters suggesting Reform could scoop more than 500 seats.
Reform are also the bookies’ favourites to win the parliamentary by-election in Runcorn and Helsby, triggered by the resignation of ex-Labour MP Mike Amesbury.
And, in what would represent a stunning night of success, polls have signalled Reform will win mayoral contests in Greater Lincolnshire and Hull and East Yorkshire.
Where are council elections taking place?
Elections are taking place on Thursday for 14 county councils, eight unitary authorities and one metropolitan district.
The Tories are defending nearly 1,000 seats, Labour around 285, and the Liberal Democrats just over 200.
What about mayoral elections?
The six mayoral elections are taking place in:
Labour are defending the mayoralties in Cambridgeshire and Peterborough, Doncaster, and North Tyneside.
But both Hull and East Yorkshire and Greater Lincolnshire are newly-created mayoralties.
Dan Norris won the West of England mayoralty for Labour in 2021.
He was suspended by the party last month after being arrested on suspicion of rape and child sex offences.
Why are voters choosing a new Runcorn and Helsby MP?
The parliamentary by-election in Runcorn and Helsby was triggered by Mike Amesbury’s resignation from the House of Commons.
It came after he was jailed for 10 weeks for punching a constituent while drunk in Frodsham, Cheshire, last October.
Amesbury spent three nights in HMP Altcourse, Merseyside, in February before successfully appealing his sentence.
He won Runcorn and Helsby for Labour at July’s general election with a 14,696-vote majority.
Reform came second to Labour in the Cheshire constituency last summer, while the Tories came third – more than 900 votes behind Reform.
What do I need to vote?
Voters are being urged to remember their ID when they go to polling stations on Thursday, which they will need to show before they can receive a ballot paper.
Accepted forms of ID include:
Voters will be able to use expired ID if they are still recognisable from the photo.
Niki Nixon, director of communications at the Electoral Commission, said: ‘If you’re going along to your polling station to vote on Thursday, don’t forget your photo ID, you’ll need to show it before you can be given your ballot paper.
‘Check you have it with you before heading to the polling station, so that you don’t have to return later in the day.
‘If you lose your ID, or your Voter Authority Certificate does not arrive in time, you can appoint an emergency proxy to vote on your behalf.
‘You will need to contact your council to arrange this before 5pm on election day, and the person you appoint will need their own acceptable photo ID.’
How are the Tories expected to perform?
Mrs Badenoch has admitted her party are in for a ‘very difficult’ set of elections, with the Tories defending a large number of seats they won in May 2021.
This was when the Conservatives were enjoying a spike in popularity under then-PM Boris Johnson in the wake of the Covid vaccine roll out.
A spokesman for the Tory leader said: ‘We’re working hard for every vote – she has now visited every single county that has councils up for election.’
But, the spokesman added: ‘We’ve got to recognise that we are coming off a historic high in 2021 when we won two-thirds of the seats that were up for election, so as the Leader of the Opposition has said, there is going to be a correction.’
Lord Robert Hayward, a Conservative peer and top pollster, said he expects the Tories to lose between 475 to 525 councillors.
He suggested many of these Tory losses would be to Reform and, to a lesser extent, to the Liberal Democrats.
What about Labour?
Sir Keir is also expecting a tough night as voters go to the polls nearly 10 months after he became PM.
Luke Tryl, UK director of More In Common, said Labour are ‘likely to lose seats’ but could limit their losses to around 20 seats of fewer on a ‘good night’.
‘The areas up for election this year are not ones where Labour is traditionally strong,’ he added.
‘A bad night sees them win only 160 seats, down 140 on 2021 – or around 120 accounting for seat reductions.’
A bigger blow for Sir Keir could be the loss of Runcorn and Helsby to Reform, which would deepen fears of the threat posed by Mr Farage’s party.
The PM has not been on the doorstep ahead of the Runcorn and Helsby by-election, but allies pointed to his campaigning in the local contests around England.
Asked if Sir Keir had been asked to stay away from the campaign in Runcorn, a Labour spokesman said: ‘The PM has been campaigning throughout this period across the country.’
The spokesman said Sir Keir had acknowledged ‘the elections will be tough’ as local contests were ‘always challenging for incumbent governments and these council elections are in Tory heartlands’.
‘But, of course, we’re fighting for every vote and making clear that Labour is the only party delivering change after 14 years of chaos and decline,’ he added.
And how about Reform UK and the Lib Dems?
Reform UK could scoop more than 500 council seats on Thursday, according to Mr Tryl, with likely successes in areas such as Doncaster, Kent and Durham.
‘One prediction we make with confidence is their gains will be in the hundreds of seats,’ the pollster said.
Mr Tryl also said that Reform should win Runcorn and Helsby by-election if their polling figures are correct.
‘In general and given where we are with national polling we would expect that if Reform… are matching their current national voting intention that they should take the Runcorn by-election,’ he said.
The pollster added that the Lib Dems and Greens could also benefit from disillusionment among voters with Labour and the Tories – traditionally the two main parties.
‘A good night for the LIb Dems sees them make gains of more than 170,’ he said. ‘A good night for the Greens sees them double their number of seats or more.’