Nigel Farage sent a shockwave through UK politics today as Reform seized Runcorn & Helsby from Labour by just six votes in a dramatic by-election.
A jubilant Mr Farage hailed a ‘big moment’ after nailbiting recounts in the Cheshire seat, with local elections seeing the insurgents rack up gains across England and spark panic in the two main parties.
It was the narrowest by-election win in modern British history, in what was a Labour stronghold just nine months ago at the general election.
Watched by Mr Farage, victorious candidate Sarah Pochin said the public was sending a message that ‘enough is enough’. ‘Enough Tory failure, enough Labour lies,’ she said.
As results from yesterday’s contests start to flow in, Reform’s Dame Andrea Jenkyns romped home as the first Greater Lincolnshire mayor with an enormous 40,000 majority over the Tories.
The party is also on track to control the county council, as its national poll surge is translated into real votes and real power.
Earlier, Reform only narrowly missed out on having a mayor in North Tyneside, cutting a Labour majority of almost 14,000 down to just 444.
It was a similar story in Doncaster, where Labour’s Ros Jones closed out Mr Farage’s party by just 698 votes. The Tories were in third, with the right-wing parties together taking 57 per cent of the vote.
Ms Jones launched an extraordinary tirade at Sir Keir after the announcement, berating him for not ‘listening’ to unrest over cuts to winter fuel allowance and the national insurance hike.
Reform were also a shock second in the West of England, where Labour held the mayoralty in what was meant to be a two-horse race between them and the Greens.
In the coming hours Mr Farage’s outfit is expected to take hundreds of council seats surrendered by the Tories. The areas up for grabs are traditionally true-blue and were last decided at Boris Johnson’s peak in 2021.
On a momentous day for British politics:
Mike Amesbury won Runcorn with a huge majority of 14,696 in July, but he resigned earlier this year after being convicted of assaulting a constituent on a night out, triggering this vote.
Ms Pochin received 12,645 votes with her Labour rival just behind on 12,639. The Conservatives received 2,341.
The previous post-war record for the smallest majority at a by-election was 57 in Berwick-Upon-Tweed in 1973.
In one of the first major shocks of the night, Labour’s Karen Clark won the race to be mayor of North Tyneside – held by the party since the post’s inception in 2002.
But the margin of victory was just 444 votes, ahead of Reform’s John Falkenstein in second place and the Tories pushed down to third.
The last time the mayoralty was up for grabs in 2021 the Labour majority was almost 14,000 – although a different voting system was used then.
Mr Farage’s long-term ally Arron Banks put in a strong showing in the West of England mayoralty, overhauling the Greens to come second.
In Greater Lincolnshire, Dame Andrea received 104,133 votes, with the Tories far behind on 64,585. Turnout was just under 30 per cent.
She said that ‘inch-by-inch Reform will reset Britain to its glorious past’, paying tribute to Mr Farage.
‘I know one day he will make a great prime minister,’ she added.
Mr Farage said he was ‘delighted’ with the outcome so far. ‘It’s been a huge night for Reform. One or two near misses in the mayoral contests but a huge night for Reform,’ he told reporters at the count in Runcorn.
He said it had been an ’emotional rollercoaster’ for Ms Pochin.
‘It’s the closest by-election since the war and I think one of the most dramatic, but I sense, also, one of the most significant,’ he said.
Mr Farage said they were ‘on the verge’ of taking control of the council in Staffordshire, and he would be looking towards County Durham where he ‘fancied our chances’.
He also branded Sir Keir a ‘coward’ for failing to visit Runcorn during the campaign.
‘He obviously feared they might lose, therefore he didn’t come,’ he said.
‘I knocked on doors for eight hours today and I would have been here in this hall with our candidate regardless, whether we had won or lost by six votes.’
Jibing at Kemi Badenoch, Mr Farage said: ‘We want you to stay on as leader. I’ll put some money if you’d like to keep you there.
‘She’s got an impossible job. The Conservative Party is split.’
Of Reform’s approach to local government, Mr Farage suggested they will crack down on staff working from home and emulate Elon Musk’s cost-cutting drive. He said ‘every county council needs a DOGE’.
Northumberland was the first county council to declare all its results, with Conservatives winning 26 seats, Reform 23, Labour eight, Independents seven, Liberal Democrats three and Greens two.
With the Conservatives and Reform now holding 49 of the 69 seats on the council, it raises the question of whether the parties will have to deal to run it.
The council was previously led by a minority Conservative administration, with the party down seven and Labour down nine, while Reform previously had no seats on the council.
Senior Labour sources have suggested Reform could win Durham Council, which would cause panic in the ranks.
Returning Doncaster mayor Ms Jones condemned Sir Keir for failing to ‘listen’ to the public.
She told the BBC: ‘I wrote as soon as the winter fuel allowance was actually mooted, and I said it was wrong, and therefore I stepped in immediately and used our household support fund to ensure no-one in Doncaster went cold during the winter.’
The increase in national insurance was ‘hitting some of our smaller businesses’ and the squeeze on the personal independence payment was leaving many people ‘worried’, Ms Jones said.
She added: ‘I think the results here tonight will demonstrate that they need to be listening to the man, woman and businesses on the street, and actually deliver for the people, with the people.’
Reform UK won three of the first five wards declared at Northumberland County Council, with Labour and the Conservatives picking up one each.
It also picked up seats in Norwich and Hartlepool.
Touring broadcast studios this morning, Tory co-chair Nigel Huddleston tried to put a brave face on the battering.
He dismissed suggestions that Kemi Badenoch could have to quit, saying it was a ‘marathon not a sprint’.
And challenged on whether there now needed to be a merger on the Right, Mr Huddleston said: ‘Reform are not a Conservative party.’
Labour chair Ellie Reeves said ‘change takes time’ and acknowledged ‘people are impatient’.
She told Times Radio: ‘Change takes time and we know that people are impatient.
‘We had 14 years of chaos under the Conservatives. Public services and the public finances were left in a state.
‘We’ve had to stabilise the economy, but we’re starting that work. We’ve got our Plan for Change, we’re beginning to see the results of this, but we know we need to go further and faster.’
Ms Pochin said said illegal immigration was a ‘massive issue’ for Runcorn.
She said: ‘People are living next to private landlord accommodation full of illegal immigrants that are causing people’s lives hell.
‘That is an issue that we will absolutely be looking at as the priority.’
She claimed constituents were ‘frightened to go out of their houses’.
She added: ‘It’s a whole area that we will be looking at in detail.’
A Conservative Party spokesman said of Runcorn: ‘This result is a damning verdict on Keir Starmer’s leadership which has led to Labour losing a safe seat.
‘Just 10 months ago Labour won an enormous majority, including in this seat with 52 per cent of the vote, but their policies have been a punch in the face for the people of Runcorn.’
Voters headed to the polls across England in 23 council elections, six mayoral contests, and one parliamentary by-election.
Up for grabs were more than 1,600 council seats, half-a-dozen regional mayors, and the new MP for Runcorn and Helsby.
It is the first big test for Britain’s political parties since last July’s general election, at which Labour secured a landslide win.
Results did not start dropping until after 2am, with mayors and the by-election first.
Council votes will come in later as most do not start counting until the morning.
Polling guru Sir John Curtice said Reform UK ‘are in business’ after the strong performances.
He told BBC Breakfast: ‘The big question we were looking to these elections to answer was, the message of the opinion polls is that Reform are now posing a big threat to both Conservative and Labour, neck and neck with them according to the polls.
‘Is that really true? And I think we now already know that the answer to that question is yes.
‘Ukip never managed to win a parliamentary by-election afresh in the way that Reform have managed to do in Runcorn.’
Sir John said Reform had put in ‘some quite remarkable performances’ as the more evenly spread vote was not a disadvantage to them at local level.
He added: ‘Reform are in business. They are a major challenge.’
Luke Tryl of polling firm More in Common said: ‘While it’s still early we have enough of a spread of results to know the Reform momentum since the election is real and they can turn poll ratings into real votes.’
The parliamentary by-election in Runcorn and Helsby was triggered by Mike Amesbury’s resignation from the House of Commons.
It came after he was jailed for 10 weeks for punching a constituent while drunk in Frodsham, Cheshire, last October.
Amesbury spent three nights in HMP Altcourse, Merseyside, in February before successfully appealing his sentence.
He won Runcorn and Helsby for Labour at July’s general election with a 14,696-vote majority.
Reform came second to Labour in the Cheshire constituency last summer, while the Tories came third – more than 900 votes behind Reform.
Labour has the most seats on Durham Council (52 out of 126), but has been shut out of power for the past four years by a multi-party coalition that includes the Tories, the Lib Dems, Greens and various independents.
Before losing control in 2021, Labour had enjoyed a majority in Durham continuously since 1925.
At this election the council is being reduced in size from 126 to 98 seats, which makes the outcome hard to predict. Labour will hope to regain full control, but is facing a new challenge from Reform.
One senior Labour source told : ‘Durham could be a bigger story than Runcorn.
‘The results were awful last time, I think they will be worse this time.
‘Reform has an outside chance of running the council. Considering we ran the show for 102 years up to 2021 it’ll be devastating.’
Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey was optimistic about his party’s prospects as polls closed.
‘We are expecting to see big gains against the Conservatives in their former Middle England heartlands,’ he said.
‘Last year the Liberal Democrats won a record number of MPs and became the largest third party in 100 years. Now we are on course for our seventh year of local election gains, making this our best ever winning streak.
‘Voters have delivered their verdict on a Conservative Party that broke the country and a Labour government that is too timid to fix it.’
10pm Thursday
Polling stations close.
Counting begins in the Runcorn & Helsby by-election and in four of the six mayoral contests: Doncaster, Greater Lincolnshire, North Tyneside and West of England.
Four of the 23 local authorities holding elections will start counting: Hertfordshire, Lincolnshire, Northumberland and Staffordshire.
Only one, Northumberland, is due to report all its results overnight; the other three will announce some results overnight, with the rest of the seats being declared later on Friday.
2am Friday
Results are due around this time for two of the mayoral contests.
North Tyneside is one of Labour’s north-east heartlands and the party’s candidate Karen Clark is favourite to win, though a low turnout may mean the result is closer than expected.
The West of England mayor could be a tight race between Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the Greens; Labour’s chances may be affected by the outgoing mayor, Dan Norris, being suspended from the party after he was arrested on suspicion of sexual offences.
3am
Counting should be over in the Runcorn & Helsby by-election, which was triggered by the resignation of the previous MP, Mike Amesbury, after he was given a suspended prison sentence for punching a man in a street in Frodsham, Cheshire.
The result this time is expected to be much closer, with Reform hoping to pull off a shock win.
3.30am
Greater Lincolnshire is one of two new mayoral positions being contested for the first time and is likely to be a two-horse race between the Conservatives and Reform.
The Tories have picked the leader of North Lincolnshire council Rob Waltham, while the Reform candidate is former Tory MP Dame Andrea Jenkyns.
5am
The result of the Doncaster mayoral election is due, with Labour’s Ros Jones hoping for a fourth term in office.
7am
A full set of council results should be in for Northumberland, which is currently run by a Conservative minority administration.
Labour is the main opposition and will hope to improve its standing, though Reform and independent candidates could also make gains, ensuring the council remains in no overall control.
9am
Ballot papers will start to be counted around this time for the remaining two mayoral contests in Cambridgeshire & Peterborough and Hull & East Yorkshire.
Counting will also get under way in those local authorities that did not begin overnight.
1pm
The full result is due for Durham council, where Labour is currently the largest party but does not have a majority and has been shut out of power for the past four years by a multi-party coalition that includes the Tories, the Liberal Democrats, the Greens and various independents.
Labour will hope to regain full control, but is facing an added challenge this time from Reform.
1.45pm
The Tories could see their tiny majority vanish in Lancashire, where Labour, Reform and independent candidates are all hoping to make advances.
2.30pm
The result is due for the new Hull & East Yorkshire mayor.
The Conservatives, Labour and Lib Dems all enjoy support in different parts of this region, while Reform has picked former boxer and Olympic medallist Luke Campbell as its candidate.
3pm
The pace begins to pick up with three councils due to finish declaring.
Doncaster is the only local authority Labour is defending at these elections, but the party faces a big threat from Reform, which is treating the council as a top target.
The Tories are likely to see their numbers cut in both Buckinghamshire and Leicestershire, but could well remain the largest party on both councils.
The result is also due for the Cambridgeshire & Peterborough mayor, which was won by Labour’s Nik Johnson in 2021 but he is not standing this time, and where both the Tories and Lib Dems fancy their chances.
4pm
The losses could start to mount for the Conservatives.
The Lib Dems are hoping to replace the Tories as the largest party in Gloucestershire and Hertfordshire and could make major gains on both councils.
In Shropshire the Conservatives may lose power thanks to a challenge from the Lib Dems, Labour and smaller parties, though they could hang on in Staffordshire where they have a large majority.
4.30pm
Labour did well in the county of Derbyshire at the general election and is hoping to pick up seats on the council this year.
With the Lib Dems and Reform also eyeing gains, the Tories may lose overall control.
5pm
A string of results could bring more gloom for the Conservatives.
Reform is threatening to eat into the Tories’ large presence in Lincolnshire and North Northamptonshire, while the Conservatives’ tiny majority in Nottinghamshire is likely to evaporate in the face of challenges from Reform, Labour and local independents.
The Lib Dems hope to chip away at the Tory numbers in Warwickshire and do well enough in Oxfordshire to take majority control.
In Worcestershire, the story could be one of multiple parties gaining at the Conservatives’ expense, particularly the Greens and Reform.
6pm
More Tory losses may come in Cornwall, where the party has minority control of the council but faces twin threats from the Liberal Democrats and independents.
The Lib Dems are also hoping to wipe out the Conservatives’ majority in Devon and make gains at the Tories’ expense in Wiltshire.
In Cambridgeshire, the Lib Dems are currently the largest party but do not have a majority and will be keen to improve their position.
7pm
The final results are due from Kent and West Northamptonshire: two councils where the Tories currently have a majority but where they face challenges from more than one party.
Reform and Labour are hoping to advance in both areas, while Kent could see gains for the Lib Dems, Greens and independent candidates.