Hamas will launch a brutal Guerrilla warfare campaign against the IDF, a senior Israeli official has warned – as it is claimed the terror group has lost half of its forces.
The heavy losses sustained by the terror group have rendered it too weak to fight sustained battles against the vastly superior Israeli armed forces, reducing its ability to mount a conventional defence of its coastal stronghold.
But Hamas is heavily embedded among civilians in Rafah and is expected to cling on in bitter fighting before switching to an insurgency once its conventional forces fall – a sign of the group’s ability to quickly evolve its resistance.
Speaking from Israel’s Intelligence HQ in Herzliya, the senior official told how it was their duty to dismantle Hamas brigades ‘despite huge international pressure’ to halt the assault. ‘We assume many hostages are in Rafah,’ they said.
Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is being pushed to agree to a ceasefire deal with Hamas that will see the release of the 124 hostages.
But yesterday Hamas rejected the US-backed proposal, stating it would only accept a deal that saw the IDF pull out of Gaza and allow the group to keep its weapons.
The senior official said Israel has no interest in occupying Gaza after the Rafah operation, but warned of a gruelling operation to deal with guerillas that refuse to surrender – suggesting the conflict could continue to drag on.
Explaining what is required, the official said: ‘It will be raids that will mainly be commando raids, special forces operations.
‘Our model of operation will continue in a surgical mode of operation similar to the counter terrorism operation in Judea and Samaria.
‘We don’t want to manage the lives of people in Gaza. But regarding the security, we will definitely keep acting in Gaza 24/7 around the clock with activities there but the operational view or the operational concept will be over raids, not occupied.’
Israel pulled out of Gaza in 2005, evicting many Israeli families.
However Hamas eventually took over after winning the 2007 elections which saw a huge number of rockets sent over from the enclave into Israel with the aim to kill civilians.
The IDF has engaged in previous operations in the Palestinian territories, including Operation Defensive Shield in the West Bank in 2002.
‘As you remember, in March 2002 with Operation Defensive Shield, it took us a year and a half to keep dismantling all the guerilla activities,’ the source said.
‘It won’t take less in Gaza because it’s a bigger army made and supported by Iran.’
Israel’s operation in the West Bank in 2002 was launched two days after Palestinian terrorists killed 30 civilians in a suicide bombing at a hotel in Netanya while families were celebrating Passover.
The source said he can’t go into operational details on the specific difficulties being faced in Gaza today.
‘It’s very complicated,’ he said. ‘At the end of the day Israel is an independent state and we will have to dismantle Hamas’s military power so that they cannot commit another October 7.’
US President Joe Biden last week claimed that Hamas now no longer has the capabilities to commit another October 7-style attack on Israel as he pushed for a ceasefire.
But the official said while 4,000 terrorists may not be able to pour over the border and slaughter 1,200, ‘even if four infiltrated Be’eri again, it would be unacceptable.’ He said: ‘Hamas cannot use their military power again or there won’t be an end to the war.’
US and Israeli officials, cited by Reuters, have estimated that Hamas has seen around half its forces wiped out since Israel launched its offensive on Gaza.
According to three senior US officials familiar with battlefield developments, Hamas has been reduced to 9,000 to 12,000 fighters – down from American estimates of 20,000-25,000 before the conflict. Israel says it has lost almost 300 troops in the Gaza campaign.
Hamas does not disclose fatalities among its fighters and some officials have described Israel’s figures for the number of Hamas fighters killed as exaggerated.
Crucially, it is thought that between 7,000 to 8,000 fighters remain entrenched in Rafah where the Israeli military is currently focusing its efforts – making the southern city Hamas’s final significant bastion of resistance.
But despite the group’s weakened state, it still retains control over large sections of Gaza and its leadership remain largely unscathed.
Hamas’s 500km network of tunnels under Gaza, sprawling throughout the Palestinian territory like an underground city, has been crucial in its defence.
Although some of these tunnels have been targeted by the IDF with explosives – and even flooded with sea water, it is believed the ‘Gaza Metro’ is still sheltering Hamas’s leadership, command centres and arsenal of weaponry.
The tunnels will also aid Hamas with its guerrilla tactics. Instead of engaging IDF soldiers in open warfare, they are opting for ambushes and using improvised explosive devices (IEDs) to strike Israeli targets behind enemy lines.
The underground network enables Hamas to move more freely, with its fighters able to unpredictably pop up and carry out attacks against the IDF.
The source also tells that efforts to find who will control Gaza started on October 8, with Netanyahu starting to think and plan ‘before we started manoeuvring into Gaza’.
‘He wanted to see who would manage Gaza after the war,’ he said.
The source claimed that behind closed doors even some moderate Arab countries want to see them deal with Hamas.
But it is still not clear who will rule over Gaza after the war.
Calls for the Palestinian Authority, which administers the West Bank, to take control are not seen as an acceptable option by Israel.
The source said: ‘I can say generally that Israel does not see the current Palestinian Authority (PA) as someone that can take control of Gaza.’
They cited PA schemes that see terrorists’ families receive financial support after committing atrocities and children radicalised through textbooks as proof that the body is ‘supportive of terrorism’ and ‘promote terrorism through the education system’.
For now the IDF’s role is to ‘ensure the southern border of the Gaza strip is secured otherwise Hamas’s military power will take over again,’ they said.