The quiet death of Scottish nationalism is an extraordinary political development – and its demise heralds the possibility of a new beginning for Scotland.
True, its fate was sealed by a Supreme Court judgment in 2022 which torpedoed any notion of Holyrood unilaterally initiating a second referendum.
But last year saw the independence project plunge into a downward spiral from which all the signs are that it will never recover.
It is worth a taking a moment to reflect on the enormity of this collapse, given that separatism has dominated Scottish politics for so long.
It was an utterly paralysing and divisive force which ensured that what passed for debate at Holyrood was consumed by the SNP’s constitutional fixation.
Tyranny
Yet for years we were led to believe that it was only a matter of time before the nation came round to the idea of Scotland becoming a socialist nirvana freed from the supposed tyranny of Westminster rule.
Humza Yousaf concedes there is no ‘consistent settled will’ for independence
It was relatively common to hear that independence was within our grasp – and that inconvenient older No voters were the primary obstacle.
But it was an analysis built on shaky foundations, given that the dial hasn’t shifted on support for a second referendum or for wrenching Scotland out of the UK.
The SNP is fond of pointing to polls which show a significant minority of Scots say they favour independence, and it’s popular particularly among the young.
But it never got to grips with a fundamental truth – that the young grow up and get jobs and mortgages, and the idea of smashing apart a centuries-old political and economic alliance no longer seems quite so appealing.
Either way, there’s no viable legal mechanism for bringing about another vote without UK Government consent and, whatever the polls say, the only one that mattered took place a decade ago.
With independence off the agenda, the political debate has been opened up to new possibilities for the first time since the SNP’s knife-edge victory under Alex Salmond in 2007.
Yet the bleak reality is that the SNP has continued blaming the Tories and (inevitably) Brexit for problems which are largely of its own creation.
This means an opportunity for a fresh look at how Scotland is run, and where it’s going, has been missed.
For his part, Humza Yousaf concedes there is no ‘consistent settled will’ for independence – but that hasn’t stopped his government churning out pointless papers on how it would work.
Nor will it prevent him banging on about Scotland’s right to choose its destiny as a general election looms – in a desperate attempt to cling onto his job.
Former Nationalist titans such as his ex-boss Nicola Sturgeon are now in the wilderness – a remarkable turnaround given that this time last year she was in Bute House and talking about how she wanted to have a ‘good working relationship’ with Rishi Sunak.
That was one New Year resolution which didn’t work out. In any event, within months she had quit – and is now surveying the wreckage of the SNP from the backbenches (when she isn’t writing her memoir).
There aren’t many big thinkers left in the SNP’s ranks – not that there was exactly a surplus before – leaving hapless Mr Yousaf to chart a new course for a party consumed by civil war and facing heavy losses at the ballot box.
As we reported yesterday, the SNP is forecast to lose up to 33 of its seats at the next general election, with Labour predicted to win 37 per cent of the vote in Scotland – knocking the Nationalists into second place on 31 per cent.
While Unionists can and should take heart from the many woes of the SNP as it stumbles from one calamity to the next, there is an important caveat.
Labour says all the right things – well, some of the time – about the importance of the Union, but not so long ago it was run at a UK level by Jeremy Corbyn, who said in August 2023 that he hopes there is a referendum on Scottish independence ‘soon’.
His successor Sir Keir Starmer, who fought tooth and nail for Mr Corbyn to become prime minister, says he is against another referendum, or a deal with the SNP, though he has also claimed that people voted for independence because they wanted ‘control over their lives and their community’.
He has pledged further devolution at a time when a lot of Scots are fed up with the SNP’s ruinous taxation policies.
Willing
They are questioning what Holyrood has done for their families beyond putting extra strain on their finances and driving public services into a critical condition.
Frankly, Sir Keir’s credibility was shot from the day he decided to align himself with the Corbynistas, and if he was willing to buy into that crackpot vision then it’s not hard to imagine that he would sanction another independence referendum if his back was to the wall.
Former chancellor George Osborne has said that while the polls are extremely grim for the Tories now, Labour’s 17-point lead could shrink rapidly.
Mr Sunak, assuming he can maintain party discipline amid growing tensions over the Rwanda asylum plan, will present himself as a serious leader who is getting on with the job after the psychodrama of recent years – including the disastrous Liz Truss interregnum.
Assuming Labour emerges as the biggest party, but lacks a Commons majority, it could look to Mr Yousaf for support – and we know what his price would be.
It is great news that oblivion, or at least defeat, beckons for the SNP – but it is impossible to ignore the risk of a surrender on a second referendum by a supplicant Sir Keir.
Damage
Labour can’t be trusted to safeguard the Union, so it falls to the Tories in Scotland to ward off the threat of a- separatist revival facilitated by a Labour government.
Only the Conservatives can provide that bulwark – and ensure that nationalism remains dead in the water.
And it is the only party which has come close to understanding the profound damage the country has suffered under the SNP after nearly 17 years of utter chaos and mismanagement.
Scottish Conservative leader Douglas Ross must focus with laser-like intensity on the urgent need for tax cuts so that Scotland is no longer the most heavily taxed part of the UK.
That injustice has helped to squeeze the ambition out of the enterprising young professionals we need for the economy to thrive – and to force many of them to consider moving away.
Mr Ross needs to spell out the extent of the catastrophe inflicted on Scotland’s NHS and the state education system by the SNP and come up with a convincing rescue plan for both.
Nationalism has been vanquished but it could come back to life without constant vigilance – and without a plausible alternative.