Two rival opinion polls both tell a similar story as Parliament returns for a sitting fortnight.
The election is tightening and Anthony Albanese needs to fix voter perceptions that he and his team aren’t up to managing the economy in these difficult cost of living times.
The Newspoll has Labor’s primary vote down at 32 per cent in comparison with a Coalition primary of 39 per cent. The Resolve poll puts Labor’s primary vote at just 29 per cent, but the Coalition’s vote is also slightly down according to Resolve, at 37 per cent.
Both polling agencies show high levels of support for the crossbench, suggesting a hung parliament may be in the offing, perhaps with a Greens (and teals) balance of power.
But the real issue for the major parties is who voters will entrust the running of the economy to in the aftermath of the next election.
Labor has work to do on this front, even though no first term government has lost a re-election bid since 1931. It trails the Coalition on the issue of economic management.
It is unusual for first term Opposition Leaders to do well on the preferred PM rating, yet Peter Dutton leads Albo narrowly, 36 to 35 per cent, according to Resolve. He is slightly behind the PM according to Newspoll.
Perhaps the bigger point here is that almost a third of those polled chose neither of them in both polls.
Labor likes to claim that Dutton is ‘unelectable’, a point that many commentators echo. If that’s the case, so is the currently elected PM, who is seeking a second term.
Not that Albo is Labor’s biggest problem. That prize goes to Treasurer Jim Chalmers, who has been called out by the Reserve Bank for stoking inflation with his spending, tax cuts and handouts. His economic management credentials are in the toilet.
The Resolve poll found that only 23 per cent of voters favour Labor to manage the nation’s finances. It was 41 per cent for the Coalition, quite a difference. And a real problem for Labor when economic management is the only game in town.
With most voters believing that the Labor Party is likely to win a second term – Newspoll highlights they think it will be forced into minority government – Resolve unsurprisingly finds that 56 per cent of the public expect the economic situation to worsen in the coming 12 months.
This is a dangerous situation for Labor. It might be justifiable favourites for the next election – starting with 78 seats compared to the Coalition’s 57.
But with a Treasurer who voters think is hopeless at his job, a PM less favourable than an unpopular opposition leader and a primary vote in the 20s according to one poll, Labor isn’t well placed.
When you add that voters expect a hung parliament – and that the Greens will inevitably co-govern with Labor in such a situation – its a diabolical mix. Especially when economic management is the main game.
How can Labor hope to turn around its woeful standing as economic managers when the Treasurer is bad at his job, the PM isn’t popular and the expected outcome is Labor relying on Greens support to form a minority government?
Especially when the Reserve Bank is telling us that it has concerns about Labor fueling inflation with its spend-a-thon.
Yes, it would be unusual for a first term opposition with limited talent in its ranks to return to power so soon after losing office in trying circumstances.
But if voters decide that returning to the Coalition is a lesser of evils compared to sticking with a party it doesn’t trust to manage the economy when that is the most worrying thing on people’s minds – perhaps history will be made at the next election. We could see a first term government losing for the first time in nearly 100 years.