Thu. May 1st, 2025
alert-–-elon-musk-faces-another-massive-blow-as-new-study-confirms-his-worst-fearAlert – Elon Musk faces another massive blow as new study confirms his worst fear

A phenomenon that Elon Musk has called ‘the greatest risk to the future of civilization’ just got worse, according to a new study.

Musk – who has 14 children with four women – has for years warned about population collapse caused by baby bust in America and the West.

The consensus was that countries needed a fertility rate of 2.1 children per one woman to continue growing – a concern given that the US’s is at 1.62.

But now researchers say that fertility target may be too low.

A new study found populations may need a fertility rate of 2.7 children per woman to avoid long-term extinction.

The team said the original estimate didn’t fully account for variables like mortality rates, the male-to-female ratio, the probability that some adults never reproduce, and random fluctuations in family size.

Musk, who boasts of ‘always banging the baby drum,’ has been sounding the alarm on worldwide population collapse for years, claiming it will be ‘the biggest problem the world will face in 20 years.’

The billionaire-turned-politician previously said that low birth rates result in fewer workers, increased debt, strained healthcare and pension systems, and total social unrest.

Elon Musk, who has previously warned about 'population collapse', seen with his son X Æ A-Xii

Elon Musk, who has previously warned about ‘population collapse’, seen with his son X Æ A-Xii 

Diane Cuaresma, one of the study’s authors, said: ‘Considering stochasticity [unpredictability] in fertility and mortality rates, and sex ratios, a fertility rate higher than the standard replacement level is necessary to ensure sustainability of our population.’

The team concluded that true population sustainability – as well as the sustainability of languages, cultural traditions, and diverse family lineages – requires rethinking conventional fertility targets.

Writing in the journal Plos One the team said: ‘The underpopulation crisis has been a serious threat to the sustainability of developed countries.

‘The worldwide total fertility rate – the number of children per woman – has dropped from 5.3 in the 1960s to 2.3 in 2023.’

According to the latest data the Republic of Korea has the lowest fertility rate in the world at just 0.87.

Several countries do still have a fertility rate above 5 – including Niger and Chad.

Meanwhile fertility rates have plunged in every local authority in England and Wales over the past decade.

Alarming figures laying bare the ‘baby bust’ reveal some boroughs have seen a 60 per cent decline in women having children since 2013.

Sue and Noel Radford, who live in Morecambe, boast Britain's largest family with a brood of 22 children

Sue and Noel Radford, who live in Morecambe, boast Britain's largest family with a brood of 22 children

Experts fear the freefalling rates will trigger an 'underpopulation' crisis, potentially leaving Britain reliant on immigration to prop up our economy.

Women in England and Wales, on average, now only have 1.44 children - the lowest since records began in the 30s and half of levels seen during the mid-60s baby boom.

Almost a third of all 591,000 babies born were to foreign mothers in 2023, the latest year with full data available.

There are concerns that if fertility rates continue to plunge across the world, it may leave countries with too few younger people to work, pay tax and look after the elderly.

Figures also show that China's population is decreasing, standing at 1.408 billion at the end of 2024 – a decline of 1.39 million from the previous year.

Other East Asian countries are in a similar position – including Japan, South Korea and Hong Kong – which have seen their birth rates plummet.

The reasons in many cases are similar, with rising costs causing young people to put off or rule out marriage and children while pursuing higher education and careers.

The team concluded: 'While the human population is unlikely to face immediate extinction, our findings provide a framework for extinction avoidance.'

Musk has been warning about a decline in births for years.

Read More

Shocking new study confirms Elon Musk's worst fear about life in the US

article image

In January, took to his social media site, X, to share a fertility rate chart published by the journal The Lancet. It showed significant declines for both the US and the UK since the year 1900.

'This is how great civilizations throughout history have ended,' Musk wrote.

'People assume it was due to conquest, but it was actually often simply too much prosperity leading to low birth rate and population collapse, which ultimately enabled them to be conquered.'

In a separate post from December, 2024, he said: 'Extreme birth rate collapse is the biggest danger to human civilization by far.'

But many experts have said Musk's fears may be overstated.

Musk - who has 14 children with four women - has for years warned about population collapse caused by baby bust in America and the West. Pictured is one of the four women, Ashley St. Clair who had Musk's latest child

Musk - who has 14 children with four women - has for years warned about population collapse caused by baby bust in America and the West. Pictured is one of the four women, Ashley St. Clair who had Musk's latest child

According to recent projections, the global population is expected to keep growing until it peaks around the mid-2080s, reaching approximately 10.3 billion, before experiencing a gradual decline to about 10.2 billion by 2100.

Joseph Chamie, a consulting demographer and a former director of the United Nations Population Division, told CNN in 2022: '[Musk is] better off making cars and engineering than at predicting the trajectory of the population.

'Yes, some countries, their population is declining, but for the world, that's just not the case.'

He added that 'virtually every developed country' has seen birth rates below two percent, but that is the way 'it has been for 20 or 30 years.'

Ken Johnson, a professor of sociology at the University of New Hampshire, told CNN the rate is down in the US due to a 'significant' decline in teen births.

'Most demographers would see that as a good thing,' he said.

At the same time, other experts have warned that the US is headed for a so-called 'underpopulation crisis' by 2050 — when too few people are born to support the current economic system.

So what is behind the West's baby bust? 

Women worldwide, on average, are having fewer children now than previous generations.

The trend, down to increased access to education and contraception, more women taking up jobs and changing attitudes towards having children, is expected to see dozens of countries' population shrink by 2100.

Dr Jennifer Sciubba, author of 8 Billion and Counting: How Sex, Death, and Migration Shape Our World, told that people are choosing to have smaller families and the change 'is permanent'.

'So it's wise to focus on working within this new reality rather than trying to change it,' she said.

Sex education and contraception

A rise in education and access to contraception is one reason behind the drop off in the global fertility rate.

Education around pregnancy and contraception has increased, with sex education classes beginning in the US in the 1970s and becoming compulsory in the UK in the 1990s.

'There is an old adage that 'education is the best contraception' and I think that is relevant' for explaining the decline in birth rates, said Professor Allan Pacey, an andrologist at the University of Sheffield and former chair of the British Fertility Society.

Elina Pradhan, a senior health specialist at the World Bank, suggests that more educated women choose to have fewer children due to concerns about earning less when taking time off before and after giving birth.

In the UK, three in 10 mothers and one in 20 fathers report having to cut back on their working hours due to childcare, according to ONS data.

They may also have more exposure to different ideas on family sizes through school and connections they make during their education, encouraging them to think more critically about the number of children they want, she said.

And more educated women may know more about prenatal care and child health and may have more access to healthcare, Ms Pradhan added.

Professor Jonathan Portes, an economist at King's College London, said that women's greater control over their own fertility means 'households, and women in particular, both want fewer children and are able to do so'.

More women entering the workplace

More women are in the workplace now than they were 50 years ago — 72 vs 52 per cent — which has contributed to the global fertility rate halving over the same time period.

Professor Portes also noted that the drop-off in the birth rate may also be down to the structure of labour and housing markets, expensive childcare and gender roles making it difficult for many women to combine career aspirations with having a family.

The UK Government has 'implemented the most anti-family policies of any Government in living memory' by cutting services that support families, along with benefit cuts that 'deliberately punish low-income families with children', he added.

As more women have entered the workplace, the age they are starting a family has been pushed back. Data from the ONS shows that the most common age for a women who were born in 1949 to give birth was 22. But women born in 1975, were most likely to have children when they were 31-years-old.

In another sign that late motherhood is on the rise, half of women born in 1990, the most recent cohort to reach 30-years-old, remained childless at 30 — the highest rate recorded.

Women repeatedly point to work-related reasons for putting off having children, with surveys finding that most women want to make their way further up the career ladder before conceiving.

However, the move could be leading to women having fewer children than they planned. In the 1990s, just 6,700 cycles of IVF — a technique to help people with fertility problems to have a baby — took place in the UK annually. But this skyrocketed to more than 69,000 by 2019, suggesting more women are struggling to conceive naturally.

Declining sperm counts

Reproductive experts have also raised the alarm that biological factors, such as falling sperm counts and changes to sexual development, could 'threaten human survival'.

Dr Shanna Swan, an epidemiologist at Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai in New York City, authored a ground-breaking 2017 study that revealed that global sperm counts have dropped by more than half over the past four decades.

She warned that 'everywhere chemicals', such as phthalates found in toiletries, food packaging and children's toys, are to blame. The chemicals cause hormonal imbalance which can trigger 'reproductive havoc', she said.

Factors including smoking tobacco and marijuana and rising obesity rates may also play a role, Dr Swan said.

Studies have also pointed to air pollution for dropping fertility rates, suggesting it triggers inflammation which can damage egg and sperm production.

However, Professor Pacey, a sperm quality and fertility expert, said: 'I really don't think that any changes in sperm quality are responsible for the decline in birth rates.

'In fact, I do not believe the current evidence that sperm quality has declined.'

He said: 'I think a much bigger issue for falling birth rates is the fact that: (a) people are choosing to have fewer children; and (b) they are waiting until they are older to have them.'

Fears about bringing children into the world

Choosing not to have children is cited by some scientists as the best thing a person can do for the planet, compared to cutting energy use, travel and making food choices based on their carbon footprint.

Scientists at Oregon State University calculated that the each child adds about 9,441 metric tons of carbon dioxide to the 'carbon legacy' of a woman. Each metric ton is equivalent to driving around the world's circumference.

Experts say the data is discouraging the climate conscious from having babies, while others are opting-out of children due to fears around the world they will grow up in.

Dr Britt Wray, a human and planetary health fellow at Stanford University, said the drop-off in fertility rates was due to a 'fear of a degraded future due to climate change'.

She was one of the authors behind a Lancet study of 10,000 volunteers, which revealed four in ten young people fear bringing children into the world because of climate concerns.

Professor David Coleman, emeritus professor of demography at Oxford University, told that peoples' decision not to have children is 'understandable' due to poor conditions, such as climate change.

error: Content is protected !!