A new poll suggests Nigel Farage could comfortably win a seat in a constituency formerly held by UKIP, beating the incumbent Tory MP for Clacton by ten percentage points.
The ‘Honorary President’ of Reform UK polled at 37 per cent of the vote in the Essex town, based on a Survation survey of 509 people conducted through the week.
The Tories were only marginally more attractive to voters than Labour, which received 23 per cent. Six per cent would have voted Lib Dem and eight per cent other parties.
Were Mr Farage attempt to unsettle Giles Watling MP from the seat he has held since 2017, it would be his eighth attempt to become an MP.
The poll, reported in today’s Sunday Times, comes as it is revealed Reform UK has drawn up a hit-list of Tory MPs who may defect to join its ranks this year.
Reform leader Richard Tice has been privately saying that he expects as many as ten MPs to ‘cross the floor’, quitting the Tory party and joining his.
A source said some defections were likely before this year’s General Election from Tory MPs who are set to lose their seats under Rishi Sunak’s leadership.
The source added: ‘Reform will offer them money for campaigning and a lot of volunteers on the ground’ and pointed out that some Tory MPs are ‘struggling’ to get enough campaigners out on the doorstep for them.
Reform UK hopes to appeal to former Tory and Ukip voters who are disillusioned with Conservative policy over immigration and years of infighting. Potential defectors will wait to see whether the Government’s Rwanda Bill fails to get flights off the ground, insiders said.
Reform leader Richard Tice has been privately saying that he expects as many as ten MPs to ‘cross the floor’, and told The Mail on Sunday that Reform was talking to ‘a number’ of MPs
Nigel Farage is the most prominent member of Reform, which he founded and led between 2019 and 2021 under its previous Brexit Party name
A source close to MPs on the Right of the Tory Party said the threat piles further pressure on Mr Sunak: ‘You’re facing annihilation and need a new strategy – not to just bury your head in the sand.’
Mr Tice told The Mail on Sunday: ‘Naturally, we are talking to a number of Tory MPs about their future. Though it would be irresponsible to say how many or who. But the fact is, they realise that we’re the only party that represents reasonable centre-right policies of low tax and immigration, who believe in our country’s future and culture.’
Reform has previously denied promising MPs cash to defect, after Tory deputy chairman Lee Anderson was recorded claiming he was offered ‘a lot of money’ to do so. A poll by More In Common has found that, among those who voted Conservative in 2019, almost half think Nigel Farage would be a better prime minister than Rishi Sunak.
Arron Banks, who bankrolled the Leave EU Campaign, said that Nigel Farage could ‘break into the Westminster cartel’ and that the Conservative Party was facing an ‘extinction-level event’
Nearly as many former Tory voters are thinking of backing Reform as they are for Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour Party, the pollsters found – which could translate into taking as many as 30 seats off the Tories.
More In Common UK director Luke Tryl said: ‘Rishi Sunak has his work cut out trying to bring Reform voters back home. The truth is the Conservatives are never going to be able to outbid Reform on policy, particularly on migration, so their one hope is convincing voters – as well as their own restive MPs – that a vote for Reform will only help to deliver a Labour government.’
Conservative chairman Richard Holden last night warned former Tories that ‘if they vote for Reform, they’ll get Keir Starmer as PM’.
Meanwhile, another poll found that voters in Clacton in Essex would vote in Nigel Farage over their incumbent Tory MP Giles Watling if Mr Farage were to stand. The Survation survey of 509 people gives Mr Farage a ten-point lead.
Last night Arron Banks, who helped bankroll the Leave EU campaign, said the poll showed it was possible for Mr Farage to ‘break into the Westminster cartel’. Reform was ‘threatening to cause an extinction-level event for the Conservative Party’, Mr Banks said.