Slice it any way you want – Donald Trump has made history in the 2024 Republican primary race.
No other non-incumbent GOP candidate has won the first two presidential nominating contests in the modern-era – and Trump has done it with resounding victories in Iowa and New Hampshire.
The former president is at the top of the GOP heap and looks unbeatable.
But former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley’s campaign has exposed a serious liability for the front-runner – and voters have expressed another grave concern that may be almost completely out of Trump’s hands.
NIKKI WON’T QUIT – JUST NOT YET
New Hampshire was the most fertile ground Haley will get in this 2024 race, and she came up short. Yet, the former governor continues to make head-scratching statements that don’t match reality.
Haley’s top supporter in New Hampshire, Governor Chris Sununu, predicted in mid-December that she would win his state in a ‘landslide.’
As of this writing, with 91% of the vote counted, she lost by more than 11 percentage points.
So, when she took to the podium at her campaign HQ last night, after news networks began calling the race for Trump, the country collectively held its breath for her announcement.
Was she dropping out?
No!
When Haley took to the podium at her campaign HQ last night, after news networks began calling the race for Trump, the country collectively held its breath for her announcement. Was she dropping out?
Haley was defiant. She took shots at Trump’s mental acuity, raised concerns over his looming trials and demanded that Trump debate her. (Why would he start now?)
Haley says she’ll stay in the contest through her home state’s February 24th primary.
The question is… why?
TRUMP’S ‘IN-DEPENDENCE’ PROBLEM
Seventy-four percent of card-carrying Republicans went for Trump, while just 24 percent went for Haley, according to the CNN exit polls.
Trump’s huge GOP-only number (which somewhat matches his national polling in the party) shows the tough road ahead for Haley.
But New Hampshire allows unaffiliated voters to vote in the primary of their choice, and Haley benefited from that by winning 66 percent of ‘undeclared’ voters – a.k.a independents.
That’s a general election red flag for Trump.
In a close contest with President Biden in November, independent voters may make the difference and in New Hampshire, Haley held the key to their votes.
However, upcoming states won’t feature as many non-Republicans in the primary. Many are closed primaries, where only party members can vote. And there’s another reason Trump doesn’t need to worry too much. Republican voters are ticked off about President Biden’s open border – and Trump owns the immigration issue.
Seventy-four percent of card-carrying Republicans went for Trump, while just 24 percent went for Haley, according to the CNN exit polls.
Exit polls showed immigration ranked high as an important issue for GOP primary-goers, and Trump rolled among those for whom it is the top concern earning 77 percent of that vote.
Expect a flood of Republican leadership endorsements in the days ahead, as elected party officials pronounce Trump the presumptive nominee.
So, will Haley actually make it to South Carolina on February 24?
Color me skeptical.
Nobody wants to take a beating in their own backyard and, right now, Haley is trailing Trump by 30 points in Palmetto State polling.
VICE PRESIDENT HALEY? DON’T BET ON IT
Is Haley angling for a V.P. spot? That’s a longshot.
Is she riding out the remaining donor money left in the campaign coffers?
That’s more likely.
Still some conservative voices are urging Trump to make a quick running-mate pick, even though historically nominees wait until the summer, closer to their party’s convention, to announce their choice.
Who’s in the running?
Is Haley angling for a V.P. spot? That’s a longshot. Is she riding out the remaining donor money left in the campaign coffers? That’s more likely.
The New Hampshire campaign trail looked like an audition with several folks jumping on the Trump train, including former rivals, South Carolina Senator Tim Scott and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy.
Rising GOP star, New York Congresswoman Elise Stefanik, was also in the mix.
And as they’ll learn, standing behind the former president, puts you squarely in the spotlight.
IMPOSTER-OUS: TRUMP ANGRY IN VICTORY
If Trump was worried about corralling Haley’s moderate supporters – he didn’t let on last night.
After winning by double digits and effectively ending the GOP primary for president in his favor, Trump was… irritated!
Gone was the graciousness toward his opponents that he exhibited in post-Iowa caucus speech, as he railed against Haley’s insistence that she will fight on despite losing handily twice in a row.
‘Imposter,’ Trump called her.
‘In life you can’t let people get away with bulls***,’ he said. ‘You just can’t do that. When I watched her, the fancy dress, it probably wasn’t so I said, what is she doing? We won.’
After winning by double digits and effectively ending the GOP primary for president in his favor, Trump was… irritated!
Trump was so mad that he turned to Senator Scott, whom Haley appointed to the Senate years ago, and said, ‘You must really hate her.’
Scott rushed up beside Trump and quipped: ‘I just love you.’
Awkward!
Get used to it, Tim.
THAT OTHER PESKY OPPONENT
Haley wasn’t the only losing candidate who refused to silently sulk off into the night on Tuesday.
In the Democratic primary, Minnesota Congressman Dean Phillips captured nearly 20 percent of the vote, with 90 percent of the ballots counted.
That performance is about in line with the pre-primary polling, but it’s not a good look for a weak incumbent president to be leaking one-fifth of the Democratic base.
Trump was so mad that he turned to Senator Scott, whom Haley appointed to the Senate years ago, and said, ‘You must really hate her.’ Scott rushed up beside Trump and quipped: ‘I just love you.’
In the Democratic primary, Minnesota Congressman Dean Phillips captured nearly 20 percent of the vote, with 90 percent of the ballots counted.
Phillips vowed to stay in the hunt through the South Carolina and Michigan primaries next month and beyond. And as a multi-millionaire who has poured buckets of his own cash into his campaign – he has the juice to do it.
THE BIGGEST KNOWN UNKNOWN
The biggest unknown in the 2024 election has little to do with primaries, or debates, or election night concession speeches.
Keep your eyes on the courtrooms.
The timing matters for when Trump stands trial in Washington D.C. in the special counsel’s January 6th case, where he faces four serious criminal indictments for allegedly attempting to overturn the results of the 2020 election.
The Supreme Court is looking at how the Justice Department has done about prosecuting January 6 rioters, and that puts Trump’s scheduled March 4th trial date seems very much in doubt.
The biggest unknown in the 2024 election has little to do with primaries, or debates, or election night concession speeches.
The question is: if the case is pushed back, will it happen before general election votes are cast?
Exit polls in both Iowa and New Hampshire show a significant cohort of voters — even some Republicans — say they would find Trump ‘unfit’ for the presidency should he be convicted of a crime.
What happens in that jury room, may have more impact on Trump’s ability to win than any TV ad or strategy that any nominee can conjure.
At least for now, the Republican primary contest appears to be decided, but it’s a long road to November, especially when it begins on January 24.