The death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in Gaza will make negotiations with Israel ‘extremely difficult’ and could prolong a drawn out war in the region, experts warn.
Hamas’ leader in Gaza was killed on Wednesday in an Israeli strike in the Palestinian enclave, the IDF confirmed after an extensive study of dental records.
Dr Andreas Krieg, Associate Professor of Defence Studies at King’s College London, said the confirmation would come as an ‘extremely symbolic event for Israel’ after more than a year embroiled in intense fighting with Hamas in Gaza.
However, he warned that it would be ‘very difficult to strike a deal within Hamas now to get the hostages back’ – and that continued resistance fighting could descend into a ‘sort of protracted, atrocious conflict in Gaza’ unlikely to end soon.
With Hamas figurehead in Gaza dead, Israel will have more room to focus on pressing matters, securing the northern border and delivering a response to Iran for its October 1 attack.
Mark Wallace, CEO at United Against Nuclear Iran and former US Ambassador to the UN, told Israel could now be gearing up for a ‘decisive, very impactful strike on Iran’, adding that Israel’s operations against Hamas, Hezbollah and the regime in Tehran ‘might mean we are approaching a new dawn in the region’.
Yahya Sinwar rose to the top of Hamas’ political structure after decades of affiliation, building Hamas’ intelligence branch, the Majd, and delivering harsh justice to those believed to be working with Israel – a reputation that earned him the moniker ‘The Butcher of Khan Yunis’.
As head of the organisation in Gaza, he was one of the masterminds of the October 7 attack, which saw Hamas and aligned groups storm into southern Israel, killing some 1,170 people and taking 251 hostage.
Yahya Sinwar, 62, rose to the top of Hamas ranks after joining the group in the 1980s.
He spent much of his life developing the group’s operations within Gaza before being appointed political chief after the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in August.
Sinwar was viewed as a main architect of the October 7 attacks, in which Hamas led a brutal incursion into southern Israel – triggering retaliatory strikes that have killed over 42,000 Palestinians, per the local health authority.
Born in a refugee camp in Khan Yunis in 1962, Sinwar was arrested several times by Israel as a young adult for anti-occupation activism.
Many at the time were protesting dire conditions in the poverty of refugee camps.
Sinwar joined Hamas in 1987 but was arrested the following year and hit with four life sentences. Much of his time in prison was spent in solitary confinement.
An Israeli government assessment during his time in prison deemed him ‘cruel’, ‘manipulative’ and ‘authoritative’, with the ‘ability to carry crowds’.
But Sinwar was then freed in 2011 as part of a prisoner exchange, returning to Gaza and Hamas as it took hold of Gaza.
In the interim, the group had ousted rival party Fatah in the bloody Battle of Gaza and become the de facto governing authority after campaigning on the promise of stamping out corruption.
Sinwar was soon accepted as a leader and forged alliances with Hamas’ military wing before earning a reputation for brutality against suspected collaborators.
In August, he became one of the group’s most senior members after his predecessor, Ismail Haniyeh, was assassinated in Tehran.
News of his death sends has sent ripples through Gaza and the wider Middle East -but what it may mean for the future of the region will depend on the actions of those involved in the coming days and weeks.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu insisted this evening that the war could end ‘tomorrow’ if Hamas now lays down its arms and returns the remaining hostages.
Israel has maintained since the start of the war that its objectives were to oust Hamas’ leadership and return those held in captivity since last October.
But those following the conflict fear Palestinian groups including Hamas will struggle to negotiate peace terms without its top leadership.
Dr Krieg told : ‘Even if you degrade the core of the network, the network itself will likely continue fighting.
‘What we’re likely going to see is that different cells across Gaza will likely continue to resist. And that’s also where hostages are being held.
‘The key issue will be for the mediators – for Egypt, for Qatar – to actually speak to someone. Haniyeh was a very important interlocutor. Sinwar was the interlocutor afterwards. He’s now been killed… So we have a bit of a leadership vacuum.
‘That will make negotiation extremely difficult and will make it very difficult to move forward in terms of achieving the war aims, which was getting the hostages back.
‘So we’re likely going to see more resistance, a kind of permanent, sort of protracted, atrocious conflict in Gaza that’s not likely to end very well, or at least not end very soon.
‘It will be very difficult to strike a deal with anyone within Hamas now to get the hostages back.’
With Netanyahu facing increasing pressure at home – to return the hostages and secure the northern border – and abroad – to end the deadly toll on civilians in Gaza and Lebanon – the death of Sinwar will nonetheless buy vital time.
Netanyahu can now ‘build the narrative’ that ‘we’ve decimated Hamas’ and focus on ‘more pressing issues’ like defending the northern border said Dr Krieg.
Some 60,000 people remain displaced after more than a year of conflict with Hezbollah in southern Lebanon.
Dr Krieg added: ‘I very much think that this now allows Netanyahu to focus much more on Iran, and even potentially to draw capacity away to other theatres.’
But radicals in his circle may still want to press on with the war, leaving no room for Hamas to recover – at the expense of countless more lives.
‘I think the hardliners in the government now also have enough of a boost to say: we can go all the way, and sacrificing the hostages along the way,’ he continued.
Sinwar (pictured) is accused of masterminding the unprecedented October 7 attack on Israel that triggered the war
Others are more optimistic about the region’s chances of success with Hamas top brass ‘eliminated’ and Iran’s proxies fraying at the seams.
Mark Wallace, former US ambassador to the UN, said Sinwar’s death could be the beginning of ‘a new dawn in the region’.
He told : ‘There have been these brief moments in history when we celebrate the death of a monster, and we’ve seen it with Hitler, we saw it with Bin Laden. We’ve seen it now with Sinwar and others, and a few others.
‘Israel is rising up and is now doing things that, frankly, the United States and the West and Europe should have done a long time ago.
‘Without Hezbollah, Lebanon is free. Without Hamas the people of Palestine probably have their own state, without Iran in the region.
‘So [these were] long overdue steps that might mean we are approaching a new dawn in the region.’
Sinwar’s death could allow Israel more room to manoeuvre with Iran, and the space to move troops from Gaza to other theatres like Lebanon and the West Bank.
‘I think that the regime in Tehran’s days are numbered not just because of the threat of conflict with Israel, but they’re being revealed to their so-called axis of resistance.
‘I think sometime before the election. In the coming weeks, as Israel continues to solidify its gains against Hezbollah, you will see a decisive a very impactful strike on Iran.’
Urban Coningham, Research Fellow and Course Lead at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), told that while ceasefire negotiations appear ‘off the table’ at present, Sinwar’s death could ultimately catalyse the US into pressuring Israel into agreeing a ceasefire deal.
‘The biggest change we could see … may be enhanced US pressure on Netanyahu to ‘take the win’ and return to the negotiating table in order to bring about a ceasefire,’ he said.
‘Sinwar’s death could therefore be the closest that Israel has come to achieving their publicised goals of the conflict in Gaza.
‘The US will pressure Netanyahu to take this victory and to begin de-escalating in Gaza, which could lead to ceasefire talks resuming.
‘This comes with the caveat that as US elections less than a month away, it is uncertain how willing Biden will be to place this sort of pressure on Netanyahu.’
While Netanyahu’s government will immediately benefit from the spectacle of killing Sinwar, Hamas will feel monumental ramifications in the days to come.
Edmund Fitton Brown, Senior Advisor to the Counter Extremism Project and former UK Ambassador to Yemen, told the assassination could lead to ‘fragmentation’ and the ‘collapse of communications, command and control’.
‘It may be that Hamas’ status as top dog amongst Palestinian Islamists is less clear than it was. But no other group [in Gaza] is positioned to seize that mantle,’ he said.
‘It’s hard to see exactly how to get [to a ceasefire]. And one hesitates to express optimism.
‘But the idea of a Dahlan-type interim authority in Gaza becomes more credible with Hamas in disarray.’
Israel was reportedly considering the exiled former Palestinian security chief Mohammad Dahlan for a role in the post-war governance of the Gaza Strip this week.
Dahlan worked with the Palestinian Authority when it lost control of the Gaza Strip to Hamas in 2007.
Pat Thaker, Editorial Director of the Middle East and Africa at the Economist Intelligence Unit, warned that ‘Sinwar’s death might empower countries like Egypt and Qatar to exert more influence over Hamas, potentially facilitating a deal that could stabilize the situation in Gaza’.
‘While Sinwar’s death may impact the situation in Gaza, the larger conflicts involving Lebanon and Iran are likely to persist,’ he assessed.
‘The regional balance of power and ongoing tensions in the Middle East are unlikely to be resolved in the near term.
‘Overall, Sinwar’s death represents both an opportunity and a challenge, with potential consequences for the future of Hamas, the situation in Gaza, and regional stability.’
In the interim, Hamas will be pressed to regroup quickly.
Among the frontrunners to replace Sinwar could be ex-chairman of the Hamas Political Bureau, Khaled Meshaal.
Jason Brodsky, policy director at United Against Nuclear Iran, said: ‘Hamas will have to decide on a new leader. I would say that Khaled Meshaal, who lives in luxury in Qatar, is likely a leading candidate to succeed Yahya Sinwar as Hamas political leader.
‘But some in the Iranian establishment have a complicated history with Meshaal given their falling out over support for Bashar al-Assad during the Syrian Civil War.’
‘Another possibility is Hamas official Khalil al-Hayya, who maintains strong ties with Tehran.
‘Al-Hayya’s name appeared in newly-released documents Israel seized in Gaza where he was liaising with the IRGC over attack plans prior to the October 7 massacre.’
Mr Coninham added: ‘The list of known Hamas leaders is growing increasingly thin, with Haniyeh, Mohammed Deif (ex-military leader) and Marwan Issa (Deif’s deputy) all reported dead in the past months.
‘With Sinwar potentially killed within two months of taking Haniyeh’s old role as Political Chief, it is unclear who would now replace him.
‘Due to Hamas’ greatly reduced military capacity and the absence of clear military leaders, we may see the leadership now switch to a figure such as Khaled Meshaal.’
Pat Thaker suggested: ‘Muhammad, Sinwar’s brother, or Khaled Meshaal, are seen as likely successors.
‘They may adopt a different approach to negotiations and strategy, though Khaled has also shown a degree of stubbornness similar to Sinwar.’
In order to move forward, the people of Gaza will need to find a more viable alternative in governance than Hamas – after nearly two decades under its grip.
With such a young population – half of the people in Gaza are children – many will not remember a time before Hamas. Far fewer will remember a time before the devastating conflict with Israel.
Dismantling Hamas may break its capacity to launch attacks into Israel, but the more enduring challenge will be finding a viable replacement.
‘You can’t kill an idea,’ acknowledged Mr Wallace. ‘But what you can do is take on, confront and eliminate its most horrific, murderous proponent.
‘And then offer the people the same thing that you and I want… Peace and prosperity’
‘If the Palestinian people can move away from Hamas, bring in sound leadership, I think a Palestinian state will evolve from that now.’
Yahya Sinwar’s death comes as a major blow to Hamas in Gaza, after winning support among some as a viable resistance movement to Israel.
Israel has deftly beheaded Hamas’ hydra – as it has in Hezbollah – with ramifications for Gaza that will take decades to build back.
For lives touched by the conflict, no amount of time will be able to repair some of hurt and bloodshed.
Sinwar’s death – like that of Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah last month – does present an opportunity for local change, for better or for worse.
What that looks like will depend on the decisions of all actors in the days and weeks to come.