With poll after poll predicting the Conservatives are about to receive an unprecedented drubbing at the election, the mood behind closed doors at party HQ will inevitably be gloomy.
If the worst happens on July 4, it will go down as the most remarkable political self-immolation: From pulverising victory in 2019 to ballot box annihilation in five years.
The great tragedy would be that the Tories had brought such calamitous misfortune upon themselves. After the party’s bone-headed decision to defenestrate Boris Johnson, the Mail’s front-page headline asked: ‘What the hell have they done?’ We warned it would repent at leisure.
We take no pleasure in being proved right. Having turfed out their most charismatic and electable leader since Lady Thatcher, Tory MPs became hooked on infighting and insurgency. Look how that’s turning out.
But that’s not their only act of self-harm. The party is also paying the price for coming unmoored from true conservative values.
Its Left-wards drift on immigration, taxation, property ownership, economic stability and crime has fuelled animus among key parts of the electorate.
To his credit, Rishi Sunak has worked like a Trojan to turn the horrific polls around. His election campaign announcements have been bold and imaginative.
The commitment to cap worker and family visas, so substantially reducing net migration, is encouraging. So too are his plans to reward prudence by safeguarding workers’ pensions and protect women-only spaces and sports.
And if the Tories pledge to cut inheritance tax and reduce the European Court of Human Rights’ power to meddle in Britain’s affairs, this might eat into Labour’s lead.
With Mr Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer going head to head last night in the first TV election debate, the PM will hope to show voters he is worth another chance in No 10, while exposing his opponent’s many flaws.
Labour’s strategy is clearly to keep parroting anti-Tory slogans and say nothing which could spook Middle England.
But the public deserves to know the precise details of the policies Sir Keir has unveiled – and the ideals by which he’d govern.
So far he has managed to avoid the trap of allowing Britain’s future relationship with the EU to become a major campaign issue.
This question cannot be swerved for ever. In a leaked speech last year, Sir Keir – an ardent Remainer – admitted he wanted to water down Brexit. That should weigh heavily on the minds of all Brexiteers considering voting for Reform UK.
Yes, Nigel Farage strikes a chord with many people who are disillusioned with the mainstream parties – shown by the huge, rapturous crowds who gathered to hear him speak in Clacton yesterday.
Yes, he wants to punish the Tories for failing to control immigration, properly exploit the benefits of Brexit, and level up the left-behind regions by stripping their votes.
But while this protest party’s policies seem superficially attractive, they also lack detail. How, for instance, will it stop the small boats or deal with failed asylum seekers? We simply don’t know.
While Mr Farage may triumph in Clacton it’s unlikely any other Reform candidates will win seats. By deliberately chipping away at the Tories, he can split their vote. All that would do is increase Labour’s majority.
With Sir Keir, like a star-crossed lover, trembling to fall back into the EU’s arms, Mr Farage risks torpedoing Brexit – flushing his life’s work down the drain.
The PM should hammer home this appalling prospect at every opportunity.