Britain has the highest population of illegal migrants in Europe, according to the latest available estimates – as it lags behind European neighbours in its efforts to tackle the problem.
Nigel Farage yesterday vowed to deport as many as 600,000 people if he wins power after detaining them in ‘large-scale raids’ – an echo of the crackdown by the US Immigration and Customs Enforcement under Donald Trump.
Meanwhile, on the Continent, countries like Sweden, Denmark and Germany are cracking down on migration by making it far harder to claim asylum, with notable results.
The latest statistics on the number of illegal migrants in the UK – quoted by the University of Oxford’s Migration Observatory – give a range of between 594,000 and 745,000.
If the upper estimate was correct, this would be the highest population in Europe, followed by Germany (700,000 to 600,000), Spain (469,000 to 391,000) and Italy (458,000 with no lower estimate).
However, these figures – gathered by the Measuring Illegal Migration (Mirrem) project – are from 2017, meaning they are already significantly out of date and do not include recent small boat arrivals who have subsequently disappeared into the dark economy.
More than 170,000 people have arrived in Britain after crossing the Channel in dinghies since 2018, with only around three per cent returned since then and 2024, according to the Migration Observatory.
Around 30,000 were refused asylum and another 20,000 had their applications withdrawn, meaning many are likely to remain in the UK with no official status.
And given many illegal migrants have entered by other means than small boats – including by arriving on legal visas and then overstaying – this would inflate the total even higher.
Mr Farage used his major speech yesterday to promise as many as five deportation flights taking off every day and returns deals sought with countries around the world, including even Taliban-run Afghanistan.
He described the arrival of vast numbers of migrants across the Channel as an ‘invasion’ and accused the UK and French governments of ‘colluding in their support of criminal activity’ because Border Force give life jackets back to the French so they can be re-used in future crossings.
Mr Farage claimed he was the ‘last shot’ at illegal migration being stopped after the ‘total failure’ of Rishi Sunak’s ‘stop the boats’ plan and the fact that Sir Keir Starmer’s ‘smash the gangs’ was ‘never ever going to work’.
His speech represents a shift to the right on migration that has been mirrored across Europe, with even those with previously liberal policies – such as Germany and Sweden – undergoing a change of heart.
Since letting in a million asylum seekers in 2015 under Angela Merkel, successive German governments have toughened their approach, with border police now told to turn away almost everyone except pregnant women or lone children.
The government of Friedrich Merz has also suspended the right for migrants granted ‘subsidiary protection’ – a weak form of protection – to bring their relatives into the country.
Sweden welcomed 163,000 asylum seekers in 2015, joining Germany and its Scandinavian neighbours in a unified moral response to the ‘migrant crisis’. Per capita, it was the highest number of any EU country at the time.
But its stance has also since hardened, with officials significantly tightening the criteria for residency, reducing asylum rights to the minimum possible under EU law, and pushing voluntary returns for failed applicants.
The number of first-time asylum applications to Germany dropped by 49.5 per cent in the first half of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024.
Meanwhile, Denmark has emerged as an unlikely posterchild for conservatives after slashing asylum claims by 90 per cent through a ‘zero refugee’ policy.
In 2018, the country’s previous government brought in the so-called ‘anti-ghetto law’, which aims to reduce the number of ‘non-Western’ residents in certain housing areas to less than 30 per cent by 2030.
Even more controversially, Denmark’s border force has powers to confiscate items such as jewellery and watches from incoming migrants to help fund the cost of their stay.
France has also strengthened immigration laws, which have made it easier to deport migrants with criminal convictions. But other measures, including restricting family reunions, have been ruled unconstitutional.
In Italy, Georgia Meloni’s Right-wing government now offers asylum to fewer than 10 per cent of applicants, although many who are refused simply head to Northern Europe.
In the Netherlands, the election of a coalition including nationalist firebrand Geert Wilders showed a significant shift to the Right in the famously liberal country.
Although that collapsed last year, the next elections in October are again set to be dominated by immigration and asylum after an illegal immigrant allegedly raped and murdered a woman in Amsterdam.
Belgium has also seen major gains by Right-wingers but continues to see record asylum claims.
Illegal migration has become the biggest issue in British politics amid a series of anti-migrant protests outside asylum hotels.
The latest Home Office figures show another 871 migrants arrived in 13 boats over the Bank Holiday weekend, taking the total since Labour won the election to more than 52,000.
Mr Farage, at Oxford airport on a stage adorned with mock departure boards for deportation flights, said yesterday: ‘The only way we will stop the boats is by detaining and deporting absolutely anyone that comes via that route.
‘If we do that, the boats will stop coming within days, because there will be no incentive to pay a trafficker to get into this country.’
And, after a weekend that saw dozens of protests against asylum hotels, he warned: ‘The mood in the country around this issue is a mix between total despair and rising anger.
‘Without action, without somehow the contract between the Government and the people being renewed, without some trust coming back, then I fear deeply that that anger will grow.
‘In fact, I think there is now, as a result of this, a genuine threat to public order.’
At the major policy launch, Reform UK produced an eight-page guide to ‘Operation Restoring Justice’, described as a ‘five-year emergency programme’ it would enact if it wins the next election.
It would combine an ‘uncompromising legal reset’ – involving the repeal of human rights laws and Britain’s withdrawal from major international treaties – with a ‘relentless foreign policy campaign’ to agree returns deals.
Under a new UK Deportation Command, all illegal migrants would be held and deported, including those already living here.
Downing Street stopped short of criticising the detail of Mr Farage’s plans – and even suggested the Government could seek its own deals with pariah regimes such as the Taliban.
The Prime Minister’s official spokesman told reporters: ‘We’re not going to take anything off the table in terms of striking returns agreements with countries around the world.’
No 10 did rule out leaving the European Convention on Human Rights. Labour Party chairman Ellie Reeves said: ‘Nigel Farage can’t say where his detention centres will be, can’t say what will happen to women and children, and can’t say how he’ll convince hostile regimes like Iran to take people back.’
Tory leader Kemi Badenoch said: ‘Farage’s ‘immigration plan’ looks very familiar. We set out our Deportation Bill months ago. He’s copied our homework but missed the lesson.’
And while Reform vowed to pull out of the ECHR and repeal the Human Rights Act, lawyers said asylum-seekers would still have legal redress and the entire scheme could be challenged under judicial review.