Boris Johnson expects Nigel Farage’s Reform UK to ‘self-destruct’ before the next election – at which point he would swoop back in to rescue the Tories, allies of the former prime minister have said.
Speculation about Mr Johnson’s ambitions has been revived by the Conservatives’ dire performance in the local elections, where they lost 676 seats amid a Reform surge, and by opinion polls putting them as low as 17 per cent.
While Mr Johnson continues to profess public confidence in Kemi Badenoch’s leadership, demoralised activists have started talking up his chances of a comeback after a poll last week found he was the only potential leader under whom the Conservatives would poll higher than Mr Farage’s party.
An ally said: ‘Boris is convinced that the wheels will come off the Reform bandwagon within three years – that they will be found wanting in the areas where they have won power, and voters will tire of all the fruitcakes and loonies they have in their ranks. Then he would come back as leader, although the exact mechanism for that is unclear. It has to be said, however, that not all of his friends are convinced that Reform will be a flash in the pan’.
Support for Mr Johnson is concentrated in the Red Wall areas of the Midlands and North, which backed Brexit and are now leaning towards Reform. He is much less of an asset to the party in the South, where the Tories are predominantly engaged in local dogfights with the Liberal Democrats.
The More in Common poll concluded that under Mr Johnson, the Tories would beat Reform by three points, with Labour in third. Under Mrs Badenoch, the party was placed eight points behind Reform.
Luke Tryl, the author of the poll, said: ‘As the Conservatives grapple with their survival, it does seem Boris Johnson might be part of the answer. This polling and our focus groups show that Johnson is able to win over a chunk of the Reform voters that the party has lost since 2019 and potentially could stabilise the party on the Right.’
But Mr Tryl added: ‘He appears to be less able to make inroads with Labour and especially Lib-Dem voters, and his negatives here might make it hard for him to win an election.’
Mr Johnson was ousted three years ago by MPs panicking about the Partygate saga and sinking ratings. Asked about his plans last week, he said: ‘I’ve got as much of a chance of returning to Parliament as I have of being decapitated by friends, locked in a disused fridge or being reincarnated as an olive, or whatever else it was I used to say.
‘I’ve got a very productive life… I spent a lot of time trying to campaign for Ukraine and to make sure awareness and understanding of that is raised. I think Kemi has every chance of turning this thing around.’
A spokesman for Mr Johnson said yesterday: ‘As Boris said this week, he is strongly supporting Kemi Badenoch and campaigning for Ukrainian victory.’