Wed. Nov 6th, 2024
alert-–-annual-inflation-cools-to-3.1%-–-as-federal-reserve-prepares-for-final-policy-announcement-of-the-year-tomorrowAlert – Annual inflation cools to 3.1% – as Federal Reserve prepares for final policy announcement of the year tomorrow

The annual rate of inflation cooled to 3.1 percent in November – down slightly from a 3.2 percent rate in October.

Cheaper gasoline mostly offset price increases for housing and other services – easing pressure on the Federal Reserve.

On a monthly basis, the gauge ticked up 0.1 percent from October, according to consumer price index (CPI) figures released Tuesday by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.

It comes a day before the Fed’s final monetary policy announcement of the year. 

The central bank is expected to hold rates steady for the third consecutive time – but investors will be looking to the inflation data for clues about when the Fed may start to cut rates next year.

The annual rate of inflation cooled to 3.1 percent in November - down slightly from a 3.2 percent rate in October

The annual rate of inflation cooled to 3.1 percent in November – down slightly from a 3.2 percent rate in October

Markets are pricing in substantial rate cuts from central banks in 2024, and see a roughly 50 percent chance the first Fed rate cut will come as soon as March, according to the CME’s Fedwatch tool.

Stock futures were up ahead of the Labor Department announcement, but dropped sharply afterwards to be mostly flat ahead of market opening. 

Economists surveyed by Dow Jones were expecting prices to stay flat over the month and for the yearly rate to ease to 3.1 percent.

Shelter prices, which include rent and make up around a third of the CPI weighting, increased 0.4 percent on the month, and 6.5 percent on a 12-month basis. The overall food index was also up 2.9 percent over the last year.

But a decline in energy prices helped keep inflation in check – dropping 5.4 percent in the year to November.

And the cost of gas was down a substantial 8.9 percent on a yearly basis, according to the CPI data, and 6 percent month-on-month.

From a peak of $5 about a year and a half ago, the national average has dropped to $3.15 a gallon as of Monday, according to AAA.

Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst at Bankrate, said: ‘With the 3.1 percent rise over the past year, inflation continues to moderate but still has farther to go in the journey to the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target. 

‘If current trends continue, falling energy prices should apply some further downward pressure on inflation. Broadly speaking, food prices aren’t rising as much as before, which is different from food prices coming down. The cost of shelter, which everyone requires, remains sticky.’

The latest CPI figures come a day before the Federal Reserve's final monetary policy announcement of the year (Pictured: Fed chair Jerome Powell)

The latest CPI figures come a day before the Federal Reserve’s final monetary policy announcement of the year (Pictured: Fed chair Jerome Powell)

Despite falling gas prices, households are acutely aware that prices are up sharply compared to pre-pandemic levels, Hamrick added. 

Motor insurance was among the items to have experienced the highest price rise over the year, increasing 19.2 percent to November. 

The cost of motor vehicle maintenance and repair was also up 8.5 percent – directly combatting against falling gas prices for drivers. 

The cost of tax returns preparation and other accounting services was up 8.3 percent annually, and the price of admission to sporting events also increased by 16.4 percent year-on-year.

Baby food and formula has also risen substantially in price over the year – 7.6 percent – and the cost of cigarettes has increased by 8 percent. 

Restaurant prices, categorized as ‘food away from home’ on the index, rose 0.4 percent from October to November for a third straight month, leaving them 5.3 percent more expensive than they were a year earlier. 

In some good news for households, the price of eggs fell 22.3 percent in the 12 months to November, and airline fares decreased by 12.1 percent. 

The cost of household furniture went down by 5.1 percent over the year, while televisions, specifically, decreased in price by 9.5 percent. 

Core inflation, which strips out volatile prices including food and energy and is often deemed a better gauge of long-term trends, increased 0.3 percent on the month and 4 percent from a year ago.

While the monthly rise was slightly faster than the 0.2 percent increase to October, both numbers were in line with estimates. 

This is a breaking news story. Updates to come. 

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