The U.S. should expect some drastic weather conditions in the upcoming months as El Niño is set to come in especially strong this year.
New maps show how much snow you can expect to fall down on your state this winter based on average snowfall from past years – with record amounts of snow expected to descend on parts of the U.S. in the upcoming months.
El Niño – which translates to ‘little boy’ in Spanish – is caused by a shift in the distribution of warm water in the Pacific Ocean around the equator.
The shift has a big impact on weather patterns around the globe – and this year’s El Niño is expected to be the strongest since 2015 – which saw the warmest U.S. winter on record.
The new maps show that – during strong El Niño seasons – the northern U.S. is usually drier, while the southern U.S. typically is wetter and snowier.
Snowfall during all El Niño winters (January-March) compared to the 1991-2020 average – with blue colors showing more snow than average and brown showing less snow than average
The above map from NOAA depicted the number of years with below-average snowfall during the 13 moderate-to-strong El Niño winters that have hit since 1959
This NOAA map detailed the amount that each area differed from the average snowfall – with blue indicating more snow and brown marking less snow
A third NOAA map showed the changes in snowfall (in inches per decade) between 1959 and 2023 across the U.S – and indicated that snowfall has declined overall
El Niño amplifies weather conditions – depending on its strength.
The NOAA map detailed the amount that each area differed from the average snowfall – with blue indicating more snow and brown marking less snow.
WHAT IS EL NINO?
El Niño is caused by a shift in the distribution of warm water in the Pacific Ocean around the equator.
Usually the wind blows strongly from east to west, due to the rotation of the Earth, causing water to pile up in the western part of the Pacific.
This pulls up colder water from the deep ocean in the eastern Pacific.
However, in an El Niño, the winds pushing the water get weaker and cause the warmer water to shift back towards the east. This causes the eastern Pacific to get warmer.
But as the ocean temperature is linked to the wind currents, this causes the winds to grow weaker still and so the ocean grows warmer, meaning the El Niño grows.
This change in air and ocean currents around the equator can have a major impact on the weather patterns around the globe by creating pressure anomalies in the atmosphere.
During stronger El Niño winters, there is more snow than average in the Midwest area of the U.S. and western states like Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona and Utah.
New England confronts far less snow than normal during intense El Niño seasons – New York, Vermont and parts of Maine are likely to see far less snowfall this winter than the average from 1991-2020.
New Yorkers will have to take their winter coats back out of storage after last year’s unusually dry winter – thanks to this year’s strong El Niño.
New York City only received 2.3 inches of snowfall last winter – which is a far cry from normal amount that New Yorkers brace themselves to face each year.
Last year was the least snowy winter that New York City has seen in 150 years – coating Central Park in under 3 inches of snow – nowhere near enough to create the winter wonderland that visitors to the park may be hoping for.
Even though this years snowfall is projected to be more than last year’s underwhelming total – it still won’t be quite as white of a winter as usual.
NYC is projected to face at least 26 inches of snow this year – over 20 inches more than last year’s pathetic sprinkle – but still not as much as the 29.8 inch average.
Another map from NOAA depicted the number of years with below-average snowfall during the 13 moderate-to-strong El Niño winters that have hit since 1959.
Dark red parts of the map indicated areas where more than half of the years had below-average snowfall while the gray parts represent below-average snowfall less than half-the-time.
The dark red areas included parts of California, the Northeast and most of Florida. The rest of the U.S. was on the grayer end of the scale – but most of the coastal areas were at least slightly red.
A third NOAA map showed the changes in snowfall (in inches per decade) between 1959 and 2023 across the U.S – and indicated that snowfall has declined overall.
The season’s first snows have already chilled the Rocky Mountains, Great Lakes and New England, resulting in the most extensive early-November snow cover in at least two decades.
On Wednesday morning, snow was on the ground in 17.9 percent of the contiguous United States, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Around the same time last year, snow covered just 3.4 percent of the area. The 20-year average snow cover over the Lower 48 on Nov. 1 is 5.5 percent.
Higher elevation areas were warned last week to expect potentially heavy snowfall and therefore disrupted travel.
The shift has a big impact on weather patterns around the globe – and this year’s El Niño is expected to be the strongest since 2015 – which saw the warmest U.S. winter on record (Pictured: A man goes for a walk in front of the Minneapolis skyline at Bde Maka Ska Park during a snowstorm in Minneapolis, Minnesota, on February 22, 2023)
On Wednesday morning, snow was on the ground in 17.9 percent of the contiguous United States, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Pictured: People walk across 7th Avenue in Times Square during a snowstorm on January 29, 2022)
Around the same time last year, snow covered just 3.4 percent of the area. The 20-year average snow cover over the Lower 48 on Nov. 1 is 5.5 percent (Pictured: The crowd takes advantage of the winter snow storm to enjoy a snowball at Washington Square Park with the Empire State Building in the distance)
A storm departed the Pacific Northwest last week, which coated the area from Montana to North Dakota with nearly a foot of snow and brought cold air southward (Pictured: The conductor helps passengers board the southbound Amtrak Vermonter in Waterbury, Vt., during a snowstorm on Tuesday, March 14, 2023)
A storm departed the Pacific Northwest last week, which coated the area from Montana to North Dakota with nearly a foot of snow and brought cold air southward.
A second storm developed in the Rocky Mountains over the weekend, burying Denver in four to 10 inches.
The snowfall has been historic for some regions.
With 14 inches through Halloween, the city of Glasgow, Montana, has faced its snowiest-ever start to the winter season.
Bismarck, North Dakota, posted just over nine inches through the end of last month, marking its fourth-greatest amount of snow through this date.