Democrats are already pulling ahead in a 2026 match-up to take control of the U.S. House of Representatives in a threat to President Donald Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson’s MAGA majority.
In a new Daily Mail/J.L. Partners survey, respondents were asked their party preference when electing candidates to the House.
The generic Democratic candidate received the support of 48 percent of respondents, while the Republican received the support of 44 percent.
That sits just outside the poll’s plus or minus 3.4 percent margin of error.
The numbers should serve as a warning sign to Johnson, whose MAGA majority is razor-thin despite Republican gains in recent special elections.
Currently there are 220 Republicans to 213 Democrats in the House – and midterms generally swing against the party in the White House, though in 2022 Democrats prevented a full-fledged ‘red wave,’ giving Republicans, instead, a narrow majority.
The tough margins already forced Rep. Elise Stefanik to abandon her appointment to be President Donald Trump’s ambassador to the United Nations and instead stay put in the House.
Now there are questions over whether Stefanik and fellow New York Republican Rep. Mike Lawler should give up their seats – with Lawler’s being in a swing district – to pursue a gubernatorial bid in a state that generally leans left.
The winner of the House of Representatives in November 2026 will likely be the party that can deliver the best message on the economy, which Americans easily chose as their No. 1 issue.
Thirty-six percent of respondents said the economy and inflation would most impact their vote.
‘Border security and immigration’ was ranked No. 2 – but only 12 percent said it was their top voting issue.
Ten percent said healthcare, 9 percent said ‘election integrity and preserving democracy’ and 6 percent said ‘crime, public safety and homelessness’ was their top issue.
Abortion, a potent issue in the 2022 midterms after the repeal of Roe v. Wade, was ranked the top issue by only 5 percent of Americans surveyed.
It was tied with terrorism and national security.
All other issues had less than 5 percent saying they would be the key motivator of respondents’ votes.
Polling found that Republicans’ hardline immigration message may not be as potent going into the midterms as fewer independents – often the swing voters – say it’s their top issue.
Just 11 percent of independent or unaffiliated voters said immigration and border security topped their list.
For those swing voters – it’s the economy stupid, with 40 percent saying so.
That’s a larger swath than Democrats and Republicans who ranked the economy No. 1.
Among Democrats, 29 percent said the economy, while 39 percent of Republicans agreed.
The poll, which marked Trump’s first 100 days in office, was conducted from April 23-28.